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30 years ago??? You are being too generous, try 20 years ago LOL. Seriously, look at the census for Chandler and Gilbert in 1990. They were non-existant.
Yup. In '89, I lived in an apartment near Guadalupe and Gilbert. There was, literally, nothing around. Farm fields directly east of the complex. At that time (if I remember correctly), Val Vista was pretty much the edge of civilization. Higley and Power existed, but there was nothing but farms out that far.
The interesting thing is that one of the cities in between will probably develop as a kind of midway 'hub.' Casa Grande would be in a pretty good position for this, as it has a large head start on other towns - Eloy, for example.
The planning is in place - Eloy has a LARGE planning area, with land use mapped out on both sides of I-10. http://www.eloyaz.org/PDF/GENERAL_PL...se_3.28.11.pdf It will basically become THE city between Casa Grande and Marana. There are large swaths of land zoned for industrial development along the east side of I-10 from the I-8 interchange down to the 87 interchange. So, with any luck, the jobs will be there. Eventually.
It's worth noting that Arizona and the Phoenix/Tucson areas will grow, no matter what the economic state is. In planning, we know that places with large existing populations have a greater draw than smaller places. The rate of attraction increases as the population base gets larger. Phoenix and Tucson are off to a solid start on that front, so the growth will happen. Like Observer53 says, it will likely NOT be in any of our lifetimes. But it can happen - eventually.
They are willing to commute up to a certain distance hence the reason the sprawl didn't continue to spread indefinitely. Arizona will grow but it will become more saturated in existing areas. People may have automobiles but automobiles have limits and can't overcome long commute times. At some point, the distance becomes too great and people aren't willing to live that far from the epicenter and thus critical mass is never reached in those areas which means no jobs there.
Long commutes are more common than you might think. I have a friend who drives from just east of Buckeye to North Scottsdale, and another who -- along with several colleagues -- used to commute from West Chandler to South Tucson each day. I used to have a job out of state with an hour drive each way and several of my wife's colleagues had commutes of 75 - 90 minutes each way.
I agree, there is nothing in between Phoenix and Tucson to warrant that type of growth. If it was along a coast, i could see how it would develop due to the desire for proximity to the ocean.
I remember talking to an economist in 2006 about Phoenix' growth and sprawl. He said "At some point, you are moving too far from the epicenter that the population becomes sparse due to being too far removed from jobs. This type of growth and sprawl won't continue forever unlike what the experts are saying." This was a time when people were claiming Maricopa and Queen Creek were going to be Chandler and Gilbert in 10 years. Needless to say, we can all see he was right. I don't see a lot of companies and jobs being created between Tucson and Phoenix to warrant growth in this area.
That's it in a nutshell.
Yes, population will continue to grow and the cities will expand more, somewhat, but chances are if you're a homeowner with a family in East Mesa, QC, Gilbert and you need more money than what Circle K or Wal-mart pays, you probably drive to Phoenix, Tempe, or Scottsdale, mabye Mesa.
To think that the city will continue unbroken out to Florence and Coolidge is a stretch. It would be more expensive than living in Phoenix adding in gas and wear and tear on your vehicle. There are plenty of affordable, empty homes in Phoenix, with front and back yards, and mountain views.
Also, I don't want to go too far off topic but most long-term predictions state that we're headed for a drier Southwest in the next 100 years. How far out can the city go out while the reservoirs stay so low and we keep planting grass and building golf courses.
And, it's a quality of life issue. We're big enough, do we really want to get like LA? Even though it's virtually non-existant now, public opinion in AZ in the future may favor limiting/managing growth, and that could be a barrier to Phucson as well.
Nice post. CG also has a wide planning area - when "they" thought building would never ever stop or pause, disclosure paperwork I got when I bought my house in 2008 said that the school district expected 600,000 STUDENTS in the district by 2030.....that isnt including parents etc....obviously that pace has slowed considerably....
But some of the items you point out are exactly why I bought here....the location on I 8/I 10, and now double tracked rail will make it a great mid-point for industry between the two big cities. Already WalMart has a large distribution center here and there are a couple of more in the works.
The location is one of the prime reasons that the "Phoenix Mart" project decided to locate here, and although there will not be immediate warehousing or manufacturing associated with that project (its just a large tradeshow basically and companies will initially just build and ship from there existing facilities), new companies that utilize that space may decide it is just easier to have the warehousing/manufacturing close to the sales location....so the hope is that some of that will follow the project.
We ll see....CG of course went from 25K or so in 2000 census to 48K in 2010, and winter visitors bring the seasonal population here to 75K or so...
Yes, population will continue to grow and the cities will expand more, somewhat, but chances are if you're a homeowner with a family in East Mesa, QC, Gilbert and you need more money than what Circle K or Wal-mart pays, you probably drive to Phoenix, Tempe, or Scottsdale, mabye Mesa.
To think that the city will continue unbroken out to Florence and Coolidge is a stretch. It would be more expensive than living in Phoenix adding in gas and wear and tear on your vehicle. There are plenty of affordable, empty homes in Phoenix, with front and back yards, and mountain views.
Also, I don't want to go too far off topic but most long-term predictions state that we're headed for a drier Southwest in the next 100 years. How far out can the city go out while the reservoirs stay so low and we keep planting grass and building golf courses.
And, it's a quality of life issue. We're big enough, do we really want to get like LA? Even though it's virtually non-existant now, public opinion in AZ in the future may favor limiting/managing growth, and that could be a barrier to Phucson as well.
The key part here is 50 years. Growth will slow considerably, but at just 1% per year, that's another 2.4 million residents (based upon Maricopa County). At 1.4% annually, the Valley's population doubles. Those of us who grew up here still shake our heads at solid development from Apache Junction to Surprise. Casa Grande and Eloy will slowly become secondary economic centers similar to Mesa and Chandler decades earlier.
There will be challenges (e.g., enforced desert landscaping), and long-time residents will look back wistfully on the lost "good old days" before the town got "really big". LA kept growing even after it got too big to be much fun, and so will the Valley. I'm not looking forward to it and won't be around to see it play out, but it's still going to slowly happen. I'm not talking about solid fill, just continued sprawl. BTW, you can't really have economic growth without population growth, so it's not all bad.
Just my humble opinion: I don't see a megapolis forming without a big shift toward mass transit - and I'm talking commuter rail, not light rail. While my crystal ball is opaque concerning gas prices, I don't believe they're going down appreciably - and while you can usually find someone willing to drive 3 hrs round-trip for work (I worked with someone who lived in Prescott Valley and commuted to north Phoenix (AMEX) daily), I don't believe the majority would. Put a commuter rail system in, and the ride from Casa Grande to DT Phoenix or DT Tucson would probably be under an hour (assuming the 79mph rail limit in Chicago); a Tucson-Phoenix express, maybe 1.5 hrs - and that time can be spent working, emailing, or sleeping (I've done all three here... ). I'm not sure of the exact dollar amount saved by riding instead of driving, but I believe it's considerable (especially when you include insurance and wear & tear).
I've worked with people here who commuted from as far away as Kenosha (about 60mi).
Initial infrastructure costs would be high (although some areas could lease existing tracks).
Getting public acceptance to mass trransit on that level? That's a whole 'nuther question...
Just my humble opinion: I don't see a megapolis forming without a big shift toward mass transit - and I'm talking commuter rail, not light rail. While my crystal ball is opaque concerning gas prices, I don't believe they're going down appreciably - and while you can usually find someone willing to drive 3 hrs round-trip for work (I worked with someone who lived in Prescott Valley and commuted to north Phoenix (AMEX) daily), I don't believe the majority would. Put a commuter rail system in, and the ride from Casa Grande to DT Phoenix or DT Tucson would probably be under an hour (assuming the 79mph rail limit in Chicago); a Tucson-Phoenix express, maybe 1.5 hrs - and that time can be spent working, emailing, or sleeping (I've done all three here... ). I'm not sure of the exact dollar amount saved by riding instead of driving, but I believe it's considerable (especially when you include insurance and wear & tear).
I've worked with people here who commuted from as far away as Kenosha (about 60mi).
Initial infrastructure costs would be high (although some areas could lease existing tracks).
Getting public acceptance to mass trransit on that level? That's a whole 'nuther question...
JoeC, appreciate your input. My crystal ball only works in hindsight, and not always then. I don't see mass transit being adopted in the Phoenix-Tucson corridor for the same old reasons: the cost is too high since you need to do the whole route upfront (sharing tracks with freight trains doesn't work well), and both cities are too horizontal. I like riding trains when I have the opportunity, since as you said, it's a lot more productive than driving.
JoeC, appreciate your input. My crystal ball only works in hindsight, and not always then. I don't see mass transit being adopted in the Phoenix-Tucson corridor for the same old reasons: the cost is too high since you need to do the whole route upfront (sharing tracks with freight trains doesn't work well), and both cities are too horizontal. I like riding trains when I have the opportunity, since as you said, it's a lot more productive than driving.
I should've added that since we're talking long, long-term, some new mass transit variant such as self-driving group cars with customized routes might come along. Google Shuttle? More likely than people commuting from Casa Grande to downtown Phoenix is that new jobs will slowly be created along the perimeter with people commuting from Maricopa and Eloy into Casa Grande, or from Florence into Gilbert. And a growing percentage of office workers will work virtually and not need to commute daily.
Again, I'm talking really long term and am not saying Pinal County will ever have density anywhere near Maricopa County's. But those extra 2 million people will have to live somewhere!
Sharing tracks with freight works fine here (most lines are shared), but you need at least two parallel tracks for that to function without causing delays - so, yeah, major up-front infrastructure costs. Maybe if/when our gas hits European prices (as of today, the most expensive is Norway, at 1.995euro/liter - about $10/gal)... <shrug>
How are people taking to the Phoenix light rail? I read somewhere that ridership is steady, which is a good sign.
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). I'm not sure of the exact dollar amount saved by riding instead of driving, but I believe it's considerable (especially when you include insurance and wear & tear).
