Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Scottsdale, Chandler: company, payment, averages)

[jimj]

Originally Posted by sunluv

Thanks dad!

What is your question, BTW?

Who is Solomon?
I'll take Real Estate for $600 Alex.....

[11Hungrybb]

Originally Posted by MotleyCrew

Daughter said that they do have equity in the home but the BOA loan officer was concerned that it was not enough. They were not denied as they had not filled out any forms ( I thought they had applied), just a consultation. They will talking to credit union soon. So it goes.

I am sure your daughter and son in-law will do fine as they are solid. The over all environment for qualifying reminds me of 1994 when I bought my first house. Everything was scrutinized and had to be on the up and up.

[miran]

Michael Orr latest house report
wpcarey.asu.edu/finance/real-estate/upload/Full-Report-201206.pdf

[Captain Bill]

A summer lull was predicted earlier, which is normal, and it appears that has begun to happen. Compared with last month, the Pending listings are down 6.4% while monthly sales are down 5.6%. month.

The available inventory has increased in most areas, such as Gilbert that is up 10% above May. San Tan Valley is up 5%. However, inventory in Chandler has declined 5% and Scottsdale 8%.

The monthly pricing is down for the last two weeks. Part of the reason is a large number of lower priced short sales closing. This is not an accurate measurement because some of them get closed accidentally because of an earlier close date set on the mls and the agent fails to update it when it gets delayed. Those that get closed prematurely get placed back on the market as soon as the agent learns of the error.

Even with those closes done automatically in error, the price of short sales will still affect the market averages. And unfortunately, the appraisers, when using short sales as a comp against a traditional sale, don't seem to factor in a price adjustment for the fact that a short sale is sold AS IS, with a Limited Warranty Deed. Plus a buyer must wait many months for an acceptance.

In my Val Vista Lakes Community in Gilbert, I'm seeing new traditional listings come on the market at higher prices which are more realistic considering these homes are all updated and in a community that should command a premium price over neighboring communities with no community amenities.

A waterfront home in Val Vista Lakes recently closed at $211/sf. And the better news is it was not a cash sale, so there was an appraisal, which will certainly help the comps here.

The Cromford Report earlier predicted a 25% increase in pricing by September, and although we are in a summer lull, and we're seeing new inventory begin to come on the market, after the price increases, I believe their prediction will be realized.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

A summer lull was predicted earlier, which is normal, and it appears that has begun to happen. Compared with last month, the Pending listings are down 6.4% while monthly sales are down 5.6%. month.

The available inventory has increased in most areas, such as Gilbert that is up 10% above May. San Tan Valley is up 5%. However, inventory in Chandler has declined 5% and Scottsdale 8%.

The monthly pricing is down for the last two weeks. Part of the reason is a large number of lower priced short sales closing. This is not an accurate measurement because some of them get closed accidentally because of an earlier close date set on the mls and the agent fails to update it when it gets delayed. Those that get closed prematurely get placed back on the market as soon as the agent learns of the error.

Even with those closes done automatically in error, the price of short sales will still affect the market averages. And unfortunately, the appraisers, when using short sales as a comp against a traditional sale, don't seem to factor in a price adjustment for the fact that a short sale is sold AS IS, with a Limited Warranty Deed. Plus a buyer must wait many months for an acceptance.

In my Val Vista Lakes Community in Gilbert, I'm seeing new traditional listings come on the market at higher prices which are more realistic considering these homes are all updated and in a community that should command a premium price over neighboring communities with no community amenities.

A waterfront home in Val Vista Lakes recently closed at $211/sf. And the better news is it was not a cash sale, so there was an appraisal, which will certainly help the comps here.

The Cromford Report earlier predicted a 25% increase in pricing by September, and although we are in a summer lull, and we're seeing new inventory begin to come on the market, after the price increases, I believe their prediction will be realized.

I wonder how much the data is being affected & distorted by "flips" - even case-schiller tries to adjust for "same-house" resales, what if the *house* isn't really the same?

I'm speaking of these previously trashed reo's and short-sales that were "fluffed up" with new paint, appliances, flooring, cabinets, etc. The resale price for those fixed up homes might have went up 25%, but the neighbor's house isn't worth 25% more.

The lack of "open market" transactions really seems to be affecting values as well - homes that in my opinion, would sell for 30-40% more as "traditional" sales seem to be trading quickly as "short-sales" at a wicked discount, if you can get one, and you probably can't, unless you're an insider.

Whomever told the banks they net more in a short-sale hasn't seen what I'm seeing.

I'm really hoping the mortgage debt forgiveness act isn't extended beyond this year.

I believe the shorts are ruining the "comps" and artificially holding down values in the areas I watch.

We need to finish "ripping the band-aid" off so the market can normalize without these hinky deals.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

I wonder how much the data is being affected & distorted by "flips" - even case-schiller tries to adjust for "same-house" resales, what if the *house* isn't really the same?

I'm speaking of these previously trashed reo's and short-sales that were "fluffed up" with new paint, appliances, flooring, cabinets, etc. The resale price for those fixed up homes might have went up 25%, but the neighbor's house isn't worth 25% more.

That new sale provides a comp for the neighbors house. If the neighbors house has the same upgrades, then it would be affected positively by the rehabbed home.

The lack of "open market" transactions really seems to be affecting values as well - homes that in my opinion, would sell for 30-40% more as "traditional" sales seem to be trading quickly as "short-sales" at a wicked discount, if you can get one, and you probably can't, unless you're an insider.

Yes, I've seen several of those where it's very obvious that there is a sweetheart deal of some sort.

Whomever told the banks they net more in a short-sale hasn't seen what I'm seeing.

It's fairly expensive for them to do the trustee sale. I'm told it can be around $50k. On a low price home that can be very expensive. On a luxury home it may not make that much difference.

I believe the shorts are ruining the "comps" and artificially holding down values in the areas I watch.

I think it's doing it in many areas. However, I blame it on the appraisers for not using a price adjustment for short sales and REO's.

The good news is that we are having fewer short sales, and more traditional sales are coming on the market at higher prices. These newer traditional listings will probably hold tight to their prices and not be quick to lower them provided their agents are informing them of exactly what the market is doing.

Of course the buyers agents need to comp more than just square footage when they comp for their buyers. They need to have an idea of the cost of those upgrades. Unfortunately many don't, so they are unable to properly advise their clients on the value of a home. A 4,000 sq ft home with $200,000 worth of upgrades is going to be worth more than a 4,000 sf home without those same upgrades.

[Sunni2012]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

A summer lull was predicted earlier, which is normal, and it appears that has begun to happen. Compared with last month, the Pending listings are down 6.4% while monthly sales are down 5.6%. month.

The available inventory has increased in most areas, such as Gilbert that is up 10% above May. San Tan Valley is up 5%. However, inventory in Chandler has declined 5% and Scottsdale 8%.

The monthly pricing is down for the last two weeks. Part of the reason is a large number of lower priced short sales closing. This is not an accurate measurement because some of them get closed accidentally because of an earlier close date set on the mls and the agent fails to update it when it gets delayed. Those that get closed prematurely get placed back on the market as soon as the agent learns of the error.

Even with those closes done automatically in error, the price of short sales will still affect the market averages. And unfortunately, the appraisers, when using short sales as a comp against a traditional sale, don't seem to factor in a price adjustment for the fact that a short sale is sold AS IS, with a Limited Warranty Deed. Plus a buyer must wait many months for an acceptance.

In my Val Vista Lakes Community in Gilbert, I'm seeing new traditional listings come on the market at higher prices which are more realistic considering these homes are all updated and in a community that should command a premium price over neighboring communities with no community amenities.

A waterfront home in Val Vista Lakes recently closed at $211/sf. And the better news is it was not a cash sale, so there was an appraisal, which will certainly help the comps here.

The Cromford Report earlier predicted a 25% increase in pricing by September, and although we are in a summer lull, and we're seeing new inventory begin to come on the market, after the price increases, I believe their prediction will be realized.

ive been looking at NEW builds in communities in Gilbert, i was out there about 6 weeks ago and all agents said the prices and demand was High at this time cause of the big influx in sales and new buyers.
but i have noticed as most are saying that all has slowed down as predicted in Gilbert area etc.

im wondering if these New Home Builders in Gilbert will drop there house prices since the market has slowed now ???? (if this happens ill be taking advantage of the market)

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Sunni2012

ive been looking at NEW builds in communities in Gilbert, i was out there about 6 weeks ago and all agents said the prices and demand was High at this time cause of the big influx in sales and new buyers.
but i have noticed as most are saying that all has slowed down as predicted in Gilbert area etc.

im wondering if these New Home Builders in Gilbert will drop there house prices since the market has slowed now ???? (if this happens ill be taking advantage of the market)

It has slowed down some but there still a shortage of inventory in the lower ranges. I doubt if the builders are going to be lowering their prices in a summer lull when they still have plenty of buyers.

[Bob's Burgers]

3 homes on my street in Gilbert have had their "for sale" signs up for over 1 year now...no activity and priced right...I have never seen any realators with clients at all. Maybe the hype is for foreclosures and short sales

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by slowbill

3 homes on my street in Gilbert have had their "for sale" signs up for over 1 year now...no activity and priced right...I have never seen any realators with clients at all. Maybe the hype is for foreclosures and short sales

If they were priced right, then they would have sold.