Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Surprise: hardwood floors, comparable sales, inspectors)

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by las vegas drunk

I will repeat, the housing recovery is not real nor sustainable. It is just another bubble like the last one that blew up. Housing prices will continue to go up in the short term, but then watch out. Anyone who buys a house now is getting fleeced.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/busin...e-housing.html

By definition, any current "bubble" would be at least 50% smaller than the last one because values have fallen by at least that much.

It would also be reduced by at least another 25%, because that's how many deals are all cash. No loan = no default = no taxpayer dollars at risk.

You can assume investors might walk away from mortgaged property like they did in the past, but you also need to adjust for the fact that investor loans have required 20-25% down for at least the last four years, the default rate after four years or amongst those with 20%+ down has always been extremely low.

Is it possible there will be another crash ?

Sure.

Could it possibly be as big as the last one?

Probably not.

But enjoy your cup O' doom!

[khuntrevor]

and people berate the investors.....well I berate the slime with only 3.5% down.

[ReadyFreddy]

Why is that slimey? Do you mean the people who put the minimum down and then walk away when the market tanks?

[jimj]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

and people berate the investors.....well I berate the slime with only 3.5% down.

Hey! That's not a fair statement at all I did 3% down and am certainly not slimey (maybe if I still lived in the Pacific Northwest rainforest then maybe so) nor did I do it for any nefarious reasons. Actually is was all about leverage and my want to keep more cash on hand than "equity".

[pandaundercover]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

The appraisal business is as bad as ever. My Realtor twisted the arm of an appraisser on my last mortgage. Made him change the word "fair" to "good", when "train wreck" was more accurate. That was 2001, and I may never get another mortgage. The appraisers in Arizona tried to shut down Zillow back in 2006...that just shows how insecure they are. If someone wants to buy from me and only has 3.5% down or whatever miniscule amount; there will be non-refundable earnest money, and that will be if they are the only offer. I don't see any reason to feed the pigs for less than 100K. Look at the high percentage of cash buyers in that price range.

I noticed some false information on our appraisal AFTER we official got the house. The appraisal stated there was tile in the house, when there actually is NOT, and I'm pretty sure by it claiming there was tile instead of the crappy linoleum, the appraisal came out a little higher than the house was probably actually worth. Don't know why it was false, but I'd like to think appraisers can tell the difference between tile and linoleum.......... b/c one is better and one is cheap crap that no one wants.

[pandaundercover]

I gotta ask - we are planning to sell our house BY spring 2014. Does anyone have any good insight on when the best time to attempt the sell will be between now and then? We can assume the house prices will continue to raise, even if only by several hundred a month, but when would it's peak point possibly be to attempt the sale for maximum profit? If it helps, we're in Surprise.

I've asked our realtor about it, and well, she's kinda non-specific. She just says zillow is somewhat reliable for insight on the homes minimal worth, and that tracking the sale prices of similar homes nearby helps know it's worth. Although there are have been very sales around here, and I'm not sure how reliable what I was seeing on zillow is. It was showing some houses that are just a little bit bigger in sq ft, sold for a little more than this is worth, while others sold for much less. Yet, our neighbors house that is 500 sq ft smaller than ours, is selling for more than any house that's sold in the past 4 months around here. So... not sure what's up with that.

Either way, are there good sites to keep track of to know such information? We'd, of course, prefer to sell it while it's at a peak (even if the prices continued going up after we sold it), rather than risk seeing a several thousand dollar decline and having no choice to sell it, or rent it if it gets too low.

[miran]

Try redfin.com. It,so better than Zillow.com in my opinion. Once you register for free it gives you alot of history.

[ReadyFreddy]

Originally Posted by pandaundercover

I noticed some false information on our appraisal AFTER we official got the house. The appraisal stated there was tile in the house, when there actually is NOT, and I'm pretty sure by it claiming there was tile instead of the crappy linoleum, the appraisal came out a little higher than the house was probably actually worth. Don't know why it was false, but I'd like to think appraisers can tell the difference between tile and linoleum.......... b/c one is better and one is cheap crap that no one wants.

I don't know an appraiser that it would make a difference for. If a house has carpet and vinyl floors throughout, with a little patch of tile in the entry, that counts as "tile floors", (along with carpet, vinyl and whatever else).

Linoleum (the branded vinyl) is actually very trendy right now and more expensive than most ceramic and porcelain tiles, and some stone tiles. But usually you're right, a vinyl floor is put in because it's super cheap and super durable.

But it's not really much of a market value issue. It just goes toward what sort of homes are picked as comps. If your house is all vinyl flooring, laminate counters, and other low-end trim without a lot of upgrades, and the appraiser picks comps with marble floors, granite countertops, speaker systems, alarm systems, high-end appliances, etc., that's a red flag to the bank.

The appraisal on the house I just bought actually put down that the master suite was an addition, which is ridiculous. I have no idea what gave him that idea. This neighborhood is like 1/3 this house model practically, all with the same exact footprint and square footage. Nothing about the master suggests it's an addition. The house is nearly a rectangle. But it didn't matter to anything so I didn't even ask.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

and people berate the investors.....well I berate the slime with only 3.5% down.

The people who put 3.5% down have to show that they have a stable job, cash reserves & a decent credit score in order to get the loan. Your anger is misdirected. FHA loans didn't cause the crash.

[autism360]

Many of the good appraisers were driven out of the business because they changed the rules and they could no longer build a client base. They have to work for 3rd party companies that take a big chunk of their money and they do not get work at all if they do not play ball with the new 3rd party boss man.
What you have left are appraisers that are paid much less so they cannot spend the same amount of time doing the appraisal correctly.