Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Mesa, Glendale: appraisers, expenses, areas)

[whodiman]

Noticed something interesting yesterday. I have been using Captain's website to track active listings for about 3 months now and for the first time in that period the number of listings went up on a Wednesday. Does this mean it is starting to soften for the summer? If so, prices might begin to plateau for the remainder of the year. It also might just be a blip too.

[bgray9]

Originally Posted by ReadyFreddy

Imagine you paid cash for an investment that tanked and your neighbor borrowed the money for the same. You're both now out $100,000. But against all the laws of finance, he is getting reimbursed for his loss by the taxpayers while you are just plain out the $100k of your own money.

Such are the inequities of the patchwork of policies and programs that get thrown around in this nation. Our home we bought here was a B of A short sale and maybe if this had come along a few months earlier, the previous owners could have stayed in their home?

[khuntrevor]

Originally Posted by whodiman

Noticed something interesting yesterday. I have been using Captain's website to track active listings for about 3 months now and for the first time in that period the number of listings went up on a Wednesday. Does this mean it is starting to soften for the summer? If so, prices might begin to plateau for the remainder of the year. It also might just be a blip too.

Hardly, I checked within a 2 mile radius of my house by the VA. There are only 5 houses under 100K available for sale in more than 12 square miles of Central Phoenix. 6 months ago, there were 4 or 5 within a half-mile, UNDER 50K.

[themudpuppy]

Originally Posted by whodiman

Does this mean it is starting to soften for the summer? If so, prices might begin to plateau for the remainder of the year. It also might just be a blip too.

I wish, but I think it's just a blip. Seems like every time I look, there are fewer and fewer homes under $100K available, and they're getting multiple offers the same day they're listed. I hope prices don't go up much this summer. I'm moving the first week in June and hope I can still find something good at or under 100K.

[oldtrader]

Things to consider in Phoenix and Arizona real estate.

One of the worst metro area for foreclosures

http://tinyurl.com/dylmb9p

Arizona is second worse state for underwater mortgages with 48.3% of all mortgages being underwater. In the long run, a lot of people will just give up the real estate market ever recovering and the homes will end up as foreclosures which will effect market.

12 States Where Homeowners Are Sinking Deeper Into Negative Equity - BusinessInsider.com - Business Insider

[gtbguy]

Originally Posted by oldtrader

In the long run, a lot of people will just give up the real estate market ever recovering and the homes will end up as foreclosures which will effect market.

Where will all these people go then? Rent? Walk away and buy something else while they may possibly be able to do so? Or stay put and just accept the fact their mortgage is underwater but someday it will come back?

Lots of families out there who don't want to leave their neighborhoods and friends. At the end of the day the market will come back.

[Howard Roark]

They will rent, walk away, move to other states, shack up, and so on. A roof over your head is about the same in whatever form of payment you make, epwhether to the banks/property tax collector or the corporation that owns the apartments. I prefer to pay a corporation and not a small owner, drupe to bad past experience.

Originally Posted by gtbguy

Where will all these people go then? Rent? Walk away and buy something else while they may possibly be able to do so? Or stay put and just accept the fact their mortgage is underwater but someday it will come back?

Lots of families out there who don't want to leave their neighborhoods and friends. At the end of the day the market will come back.

[khuntrevor]

Comrade Roark,

Whatabout facing rising rents, when you are 80? Or, people refinancing at 50......do you really want to pay that much, when you are retired?

[Captain Bill]

Over the past several months we've seen large price increases, and that may be slowing down the inventory decline.

Mike Orr reported that the Active listing number (excluding AWC) is the same as we had last week.

The number of traditional listings has increased, and that's probably because the price point has increased to where some more buyers are inclined to sell now.

The number of short sale listings has also increased, and is probably because the banks are beginning to process more short sales rather than to let them go to foreclosure.

Because of that, the number of bank owned properties has declined.

In fact the number of bank owned listings has declined 92% from 14,246 in January 2009 to 1,069 yesterday.

The total number of bank owned properties in Phoenix Metro is now 6,642, down from 19,000 in May 2011. This includes the Active, AWC, homes the bank has owned for less than 2 months while preparing them for market, and the approximately 1,500 that are still sitting vacant (Those ~1,500 are the Phoenix REO shadow inventory)

[Captain Bill]

This will be interesting to those who look to the Case-Shiller/Moody Analytics forecast for the latest information.

They forecast that Phoenix Metro Quarter 4, 2012 prices will be 11.1 % below that same period 2011. Let's take a closer look at that forecast to see how the numbers play out.

$79.81....Average price/sf August 2011
$101.87..Average price/sf today

To reach 11.1% below the August price of $79.81 the price will have to decline to $71.03 from the price today of $101.87. That means from today, prices will have to decline $30.85, or around 30% by the 4th Quarter 2012.

Mike Orr comments:"You will be able to use this example of how a complex and obscure mathematical forecasting model is apt to make colossal errors".

That same group forecasts that between 4Q 2011 and 4Q 2016 prices in Phoenix will have appreciated at an annualized rate of 1.7%.

Mike Orr forecasts: that "2017 we will find this prediction absurd."

He goes on to say that: "Moody's Investor Services rated most Mortgage Backed Securities issued in 2006 and 2007 as AAA before downgrading them to junk in July 2007, precipitating the recession, according to the US Senate Permanent Subcommittee investigation."