What size do you see the Phoenix area growing into by 2050? (Tucson: 2013, how much)

[Trafalgar Law]

Currently Greater Phoenix (the Phoenix metropolitan area) has 4,574,531 people overall. Phoenix has grown tremendously in the previous decades and at times has led all of America in population growth. I expect that Greater Phoenix will continue to grow to a significantly larger population, I personally think it is ripe to add several millions more people to the area in the next 35 years.

I've been to Phoenix multiple times, the first was in 2004 when my cousins moved from Austin to Phoenix and during winter we visited their new area in Tempe, Arizona. I last saw Phoenix 4 months ago in March and its grown tremendously since 2004 (I've been 3 times between 2004 and 2016), almost to the point of some areas being entirely unrecognizable.

My question for locals that live there since they have a better grasp of the fundamentals that make Phoenix grow is that what size do you think Phoenix will grow into by 2050?

The options are on the poll. Would any of you have any concerns about this high level of population growth? Would you welcome it as it would give Phoenix a larger profile nationally and internationally, as well as more amenities, brands, and services that would enter the Phoenix market due to its growth. I'm just curious.

I like your city, its a really nice place to live from what I've seen and the scenery around it is breathtaking. Thanks in advance.

[Prickly Pear]

Originally Posted by Red John

Currently Greater Phoenix (the Phoenix metropolitan area) has 4,574,531 people overall. Phoenix has grown tremendously in the previous decades and at times has led all of America in population growth. I expect that Greater Phoenix will continue to grow to a significantly larger population, I personally think it is ripe to add several millions more people to the area in the next 35 years.

I've been to Phoenix multiple times, the first was in 2004 when my cousins moved from Austin to Phoenix and during winter we visited their new area in Tempe, Arizona. I last saw Phoenix 4 months ago in March and its grown tremendously since 2004 (I've been 3 times between 2004 and 2016), almost to the point of some areas being entirely unrecognizable.

My question for locals that live there since they have a better grasp of the fundamentals that make Phoenix grow is that what size do you think Phoenix will grow into by 2050?

The options are on the poll. Would any of you have any concerns about this high level of population growth? Would you welcome it as it would give Phoenix a larger profile nationally and internationally, as well as more amenities, brands, and services that would enter the Phoenix market due to its growth. I'm just curious.

I like your city, its a really nice place to live from what I've seen and the scenery around it is breathtaking. Thanks in advance.

I was born in what was pretty much an exurb back then (Peoria/Surprise border next to Sun City) back during when Phoenix was growing exponentially a couple decades ago. I moved schools three times during elementary because of how much Phoenix was booming. I remember trying to get to family in Scottsdale was hellish because the 101 did not exist yet and where I used to live was above Beardsley (aka the 101 North border).

I have moved twice in Phoenix before moving to Tucson for college. Each time I moved closer to Downtown. The exponential growth became less noticeable for me but growth also appeared overall to decrease in rate during this time from the late 90s to today.

I saw that you voted 8 million which I think is an overestimation. The water level of Lake Mead and the heat increase of a growing UHI will inhibit our growth along with a lack of freeway infrastructure in West Valley (drive the I-10 in rush hour and you'll understand, West Valley is also growing the most as SE Valley is already much further out in comparison). Arizona being the classic desert state will be the hurt most from the water levels of Lake Mead on an economic and population level in comparison to California who uses significantly more water than us from the Colorado and is in an even worse position drought-wise but LA and SD aren't considered deserts at this point when they pretty much are transition areas (precipitation-wise) like most of the Interior West. So LA and SD will continue to grow at the sake of us losing population. We will be forced to give up water to support California, I guarantee it. Again Arizona does well on water but it will hurt our image and stifle growth.

I am going to guess 6 million. This can increase if a commuter rail is implemented between Phoenix and Tucson (a popular idea rumored around that would extend to West Valley either in Buckeye or northwest towards Surprise and run through SE Valley near Gilbert and probably end at Tucson's downtown or Tucson's airport, lots of rail already exists in this corridor). This can also change if water policy of the Colorado River, which would have to be influenced by the Department of the Interior so not an easy process, would drastically change along with weather patterns of stronger precipitation.

[adriver]

I think were going to grow but not by insane amounts. I could easily see expansion out to the west of the metropolis near Goodyear and Buckeye, due largely to the 101 expansion that will be completed in a few years, building expansion will boom quick (less than 5 years, they will be building/planning the majority of it). The rest of the city will get a bit more filled out once the lightrail is completed in several years. If that's enough to get a few large companies here, (like the tesla, and apple factories that didn't happen) that would help a lot more than the jobs they bring, but all the support and competition. If google fiber was to actually come to tempe I think that would be enough to bring a few major tech companies to come to the valley. Nearly every other direction is already limited due to reservation or national forest land. Everything south and southeast of the valley, will get minimal growth. Everything to north of valley, could get some major expansion, but I just don't see it happening. I would cap it at 6 million because of the limitation on land, and unless something major happens theres just no other reason for any major growth.

[JGMotorsport64]

I see the metro peaking between 5.5 and 6.5 million due to land and environmental concerns.

I think the urban corridors in Tempe, Phoenix, and Scottsdale will absorb a lot of that growth along with Buckeye, Gilbert, Laveen, and Pinal County.

If Pinal Cpunty really takes off we could house a mega region with Tucson and Santa Cruz County.

[Java Jolt]

The metropolitan area seems to increase its population by about one million per decade.

It was just over four million in 2010 so if the growth keeps at its current pace it should be over eight million by 2050.

[Hschlick84]

Somewhere between 6-8 million, hopefully not much more. Limited water supply, land and the heat will keep the area from growing too rapidly. Most of the growth will occur out west near Wintersburg, Wittmann, and southeast near San Tan Valley and Florence.

[Java Jolt]

Originally Posted by Hschlick84

Somewhere between 6-8 million, hopefully not much more. Limited water supply, land and the heat will keep the area from growing too rapidly. Most of the growth will occur out west near Wintersburg, Wittmann, and southeast near San Tan Valley and Florence.

I have doubts.

Ten years ago it was predicted Buckeye would eventually grow to a city of a million residents but it hasn't grown very much at all in the last decade, and it might have a difficult time reaching 150,000 in future years.

I think the double-dip recession had a lot to do with that but it could be more people don't want to live that far out anymore.

I'm expecting to see more urbanized growth in Phoenix and Tempe, and more infill growth in suburban areas like Gilbert and the west valley.

[wit-nit]

The Town of Buckeye has over 660 square miles in its planning area.
•What is Buckeye’s Population?
•Estimated population in 2010 is 52,000 and 2025 to be 345.00, build out projected for 2065 will put the population at over 1,000,000, taking in account the recent slow down in the housing market

The metro area is growing similar to what Los Angeles has been growing. When I first moved here in the 60's people laughed at the projection of 1 million population in the future. Now well over 4 million I would predict
8-10 million by 2050. Water will be brought in from purified ocean water.

[stevek64]

Here's some data from one of our state agencies, the Office of Employment & Population Statistics, with the goal "To maintain a sound accurate population growth model consistent with sound demographic projection principles for counties and jurisdictions within Arizona and the state as a whole."

https://population.az.gov/population-projections

The data is by county.

By 2050 for Maricopa County:

High Estimate: 7,498,147
Medium Estimate: 6,698,376
Low Estimate: 5,921,825

Though I bet anything is possible beyond these figures. For example, when some major population area in CA has a big earthquake that results in lots of property damage which is a matter of if/not when, such an event could greatly change the number of people that migrate here.

Also includes "2013-2050 SUB-COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS" in Maricopa county, individual cities within Maricopa county, that is very interesting to see the population projections:

https://population.az.gov/sites/defa...3inc-13-50.pdf

[azriverfan.]

The growth will depend upon jobs. This isn't the 1990's or early 2000's where "growth" was an industry. We need real industry and companies that generate jobs. Only then will you see unprecedented growth. To that end, I am uncertain what the growth will be. If Phoenix starts becoming aggressive like Dallas but more worldly like San Francisco, I can see this city becoming very large (close to 10 million). But if continue at the status quo where we are content being a cheap haven for snowbirds and so conservative we offend educated people from moving here, I don't see much growth.

There is a bit of the lazy conservative good ole boy mentality in Phoenix that is not very progressive and aggressive. There is a false sense of security that people are just going to continue to move here for weather and cheap living. That is no longer the case. It is about jobs. To create jobs here you have to lure people to this state and incentivize locals to remain here and start companies. Instead, many of our brightest leave for California or other states.