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There is a false sense of security that people are just going to continue to move here for weather and cheap living. That is no longer the case. It is about jobs. To create jobs here you have to lure people to this state and incentivize locals to remain here and start companies. Instead, many of our brightest leave for California or other states.
I'd agree about the false sense of security. I really can't understand why the weather is such a big draw when there are other places with much better climates. Summer can be hell on earth ... and even though the rest of the year has decent temperatures, that wouldn't be the main reason I'd want to move somewhere. As you stated, competitive jobs should be top priority, not how much the damn sun shines compared to other cities.
Cheap living is not exactly a reality here anymore (and never really was to begin with). Summer electric bills, water bills, car registration, and other things are not exactly inexpensive here. Sure, a person can get a modest house made of stucco with a patch of crushed rock for a yard in a distant suburb for a relatively cheap price ... however, the savings on housing costs are miniscule when you factor in how much commuting is involved & how much gas is consumed.
Phoenix has the ability to be a world class city with more of a national/global corporate presence. It doesn't mean we have to be overly expensive like much of California. We can still affordable, but bring in the talent at the same time.
I really can't understand why the weather is such a big draw when there are other places with much better climates. .
Because the places with better climates are already so full of people that living there is miserable. Despite our summers Phoenix has pretty amazing weather the rest of the year and compared to anywhere on the east coast the weather is almost zero impact on your life here. Not to mention the fact that quick escapes up north are easy.
I spent 5 years elsewhere and quickly found myself missing our weather. As a big ourdoorsy person I could not wait to come back.
My question for locals that live there since they have a better grasp of the fundamentals that make Phoenix grow is that what size do you think Phoenix will grow into by 2050?
There are far too many variables at play to try to predict 34 years out from now. The state of the national economy, how competitive our local leaders can be for job recruitment, and in this day of globalization even things that happen around the world will be an impact to us.
As others have mentioned, the key fundamentals that Phoenix relied on for growth historically have now shifted. In the past it was a grow baby grow philosophy and they put down new foundations as fast as you could find workers/equipment to make it happen. Today's growth is much slower and much more infill focused, which I'm all for. I think Phoenix could easily absorb 1Million more people just by filling in massive areas of dilapidated or just plain empty areas of the central city. There is no need to go out any further, the sprawl should get checked drastically from where it was before. This trend seems to be popular with both millennials and empty nesters, which bodes well for a more urban, more sustainable future in Phoenix. Urban living requires much less water per capita then adding people in single family homes with lawns and pools.
Would any of you have any concerns about this high level of population growth?
Yes, of course. The prosperity and recognition would be nice aspects of further growth but the impact to daily life is always a concern. From the obvious issues, such as traffic and pollution to maybe the less obvious issues such as our high country wilderness areas being over-run with people who seem to dis-respect them by leaving trash behind, starting fires, and carving writing into trees/rocks or whatever else they can find. All this eventually translates into fees, permit systems, and a whole lot less freedom to explore however you want.
Phoenix has very few natural growth inhibitors, there are no natural boundaries like coastal areas have and so far prices and congestion have not risen to levels that would push people away. A lot of folks talk about warming temperatures and water shortages but even today there is not a single person who has any restriction whatsoever on how much or when they use water. Another counter-argument to this claim is that the farmland being gobbled up by a lot of the new developments used more water then the new development will. Yet another is the fact that through water savings programs the City of Phoenix actually uses less water now then it did in the 1970's when the population was a fraction of the size it is. There's a lot of wasteful water practices here that could easily be fixed to avoid shortages on the level that would prevent growth.
Just my 2 cents as an 2-time, 11-year resident of the valley. It's a great place to live and after traveling, moving around, I enjoy what we have here more than ever.
It depends on water, weather and the economy. If this area runs out of water, who know what will happen. However, if we keep growing at a steady, but much more reasonable pace than 2007 and earlier with no major water problems, around 7.7 million. MAG's projects that Maricopa County will have between 5.9 million and 7.5 million people by 2050. Pinal is expected to have been 845,000 and 1.2 million.
Because the places with better climates are already so full of people that living there is miserable.
I'll name three cities with better climates & smaller populations than Phoenix, and aren't exactly crowded: San Diego, Santa Barbara, Honolulu. The main problem with those places is the high cost of living, but they are still beautiful areas, and life isn't exactly miserable for those who can afford it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by locolife
Despite our summers Phoenix has pretty amazing weather the rest of the year and compared to anywhere on the east coast the weather is almost zero impact on your life here. Not to mention the fact that quick escapes up north are easy.
Amazing weather is really a matter of opinion. I'll admit that we have fairly decent weather for seven or eight months, although I'm personally not a fan of constant sunshine every day. I prefer rainy days every now & then, which is actually normal for our winter months, but hasn't been the case in the last few years. Four or five straight months of hellish heat becomes difficult to handle ... there is no way of sugar coating it. I will agree that quick escapes within our own state (and elsewhere) are not that far away, and I'm actually gone for a fair amount of the summers to at least one of those cooler locations.
I can possibly understand weather/climate being ONE of the reasons to move here, but I just don't get why it's the main reason in some people's cases. From my experience, the ones who are here strictly for the climate and nothing else don't contribute much to the economy. All they care about is laying in the sun, hiking the mountain trails, or sitting by the pool. How does that bring in the higher paying competitive jobs and help make Phoenix a world class city? Jobs are what people should be primarily moving here for ... not because it's sunnier & cheaper than where they came from.
Amazing weather is really a matter of opinion. I'll admit that we have fairly decent weather for seven or eight months, although I'm personally not a fan of constant sunshine every day. I prefer rainy days every now & then, which is actually normal for our winter months, but hasn't been the case in the last few years. Four or five straight months of hellish heat becomes difficult to handle ... there is no way of sugar coating it. I will agree that quick escapes within our own state (and elsewhere) are not that far away, and I'm actually gone for a fair amount of the summers to at least one of those cooler locations.
I can possibly understand weather/climate being ONE of the reasons to move here, but I just don't get why it's the main reason in some people's cases. From my experience, the ones who are here strictly for the climate and nothing else don't contribute much to the economy. All they care about is laying in the sun, hiking the mountain trails, or sitting by the pool. How does that bring in the higher paying competitive jobs and help make Phoenix a world class city? Jobs are what people should be primarily moving here for ... not because it's sunnier & cheaper than where they came from.
Exactly. The climate of a location plays a huge role for many people. There's no coincidence that the fastest growing places since the 1960s have really been in warmer locales. Florida, California, Nevada, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona have all grown largely due to the milder climate that many of these states offer compare to the Northeast and Midwest. Unless you have spent at least several winters in the north, you don't know how much of an effect that cold, cloudy, and snowy weather can have on people. Coupled with the short days of the winter, persistently cold and cloudy days can result in pretty deep depression. Summers are subjectively nicer in the north than they are in the Valley, but they are short lived and can still be cloudy and rainy. When the weather affects a person this much, it is understandable to have that be the primary reason behind a move.
The growth will depend upon jobs. This isn't the 1990's or early 2000's where "growth" was an industry. We need real industry and companies that generate jobs. Only then will you see unprecedented growth. To that end, I am uncertain what the growth will be. If Phoenix starts becoming aggressive like Dallas but more worldly like San Francisco, I can see this city becoming very large (close to 10 million). But if continue at the status quo where we are content being a cheap haven for snowbirds and so conservative we offend educated people from moving here, I don't see much growth.
There is a bit of the lazy conservative good ole boy mentality in Phoenix that is not very progressive and aggressive. There is a false sense of security that people are just going to continue to move here for weather and cheap living. That is no longer the case. It is about jobs. To create jobs here you have to lure people to this state and incentivize locals to remain here and start companies. Instead, many of our brightest leave for California or other states.
I've been around Phoenix most of my life; for me it's way to big so that's 1 reason I'm now in Bullhead City.
Because the places with better climates are already so full of people that living there is miserable. Despite our summers Phoenix has pretty amazing weather the rest of the year and compared to anywhere on the east coast the weather is almost zero impact on your life here. Not to mention the fact that quick escapes up north are easy.
I spent 5 years elsewhere and quickly found myself missing our weather. As a big ourdoorsy person I could not wait to come back.
Agreed. I lived in Chicago for about a year when I was a kid about 1973; couldn't wait to get back here since I don't like cold.
I'll name three cities with better climates & smaller populations than Phoenix, and aren't exactly crowded: San Diego, Santa Barbara, Honolulu. The main problem with those places is the high cost of living, but they are still beautiful areas, and life isn't exactly miserable for those who can afford it.
Amazing weather is really a matter of opinion. I'll admit that we have fairly decent weather for seven or eight months, although I'm personally not a fan of constant sunshine every day. I prefer rainy days every now & then, which is actually normal for our winter months, but hasn't been the case in the last few years. Four or five straight months of hellish heat becomes difficult to handle ... there is no way of sugar coating it. I will agree that quick escapes within our own state (and elsewhere) are not that far away, and I'm actually gone for a fair amount of the summers to at least one of those cooler locations.
I can possibly understand weather/climate being ONE of the reasons to move here, but I just don't get why it's the main reason in some people's cases. From my experience, the ones who are here strictly for the climate and nothing else don't contribute much to the economy. All they care about is laying in the sun, hiking the mountain trails, or sitting by the pool. How does that bring in the higher paying competitive jobs and help make Phoenix a world class city? Jobs are what people should be primarily moving here for ... not because it's sunnier & cheaper than where they came from.
Like you said: SD and the other 2 places are very high $$$ to live in. Many of us hate cold and; back east the summers are bad with the humidity.
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Packard fan
Like you said: SD and the other 2 places are very high $$$ to live in. Many of us hate cold and; back east the summers are bad with the humidity.
I will take a Phoenix summer over an Upstate NY winter every time. I have S.A.D. and have to live somewhere warm and sunny. I was able to kick my prescription anti-depressants after I moved here
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