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Next time I see any posts on this forum (especially from some of the recent transplants) about how Phoenix should ban grass lawns because they waste water, I'll simply refer them to that site proving how water consumption has steadily decreased over the years despite the population increase.
One of the reasons this could be, besides continued water conservation efforts, is that it is well know that agriculture uses the most amount of water in Arizona, by a wide margin, so as the farms are replaced with subdivisions, the increase in population that replaced the agriculture still comes nowhere near the amount of water consumption as the farms used. Plus Phoenix has been stockpiling their excess CAP water down or is it up, in Tucson in their huge groundwater aquifer under the city and can draw it back down the hill if needed.
I realize agriculture is a huge industry in the state, but if you were to get rid of all of the agriculture, Arizona would have enough water for probably hundreds of years or infinity even if the statewide population reaches 10 or 15 million.
One of the reasons this could be, besides continued water conservation efforts, is that it is well know that agriculture uses the most amount of water in Arizona, by a wide margin, so as the farms are replaced with subdivisions, the increase in population that replaced the agriculture still comes nowhere near the amount of water consumption as the farms used.
Very true. I've said all along that cotton fields & citrus groves consume much more water than even the plushest grass lawns with numerous trees. One of the downsides of replacing agriculture with suburban sprawl is the increased temperatures, especially at night & during the early morning hours. There was a time when low temps in the 60s were quite common during some parts of the summer, and that was when Phoenix was much smaller & had the presence of agriculture.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjseliga
I realize agriculture is a huge industry in the state, but if you were to get rid of all of the agriculture, Arizona would have enough water for probably hundreds of years or infinity even if the statewide population reaches 10 or 15 million.
I tend to agree, but there would still be a concern about water supplies in general, especially if we continue to get winters with below normal rain & snowfall. Also, the nearby states like California & Nevada use a fair amount of Colorado River water, which affects the CAP water that Phoenix uses.
Albuquerque gets snow and doesn't have palm trees, due to winter lows in the 10's and 20's. They still get cold in Dec and Jan, don't kid yourself.
Compare yearly heating + AC bills from Phoenix against those in Albuquerque and lets see which city has good climate and which one needs a lot of "help" to survive in constant enclosure.
Compare yearly heating + AC bills from Phoenix against those in Albuquerque and lets see which city has good climate and which one needs a lot of "help" to survive in constant enclosure.
Constant enclosure? Sounds terrible, Albuquerque is that bad huh?
Compare yearly heating + AC bills from Phoenix against those in Albuquerque and lets see which city has good climate and which one needs a lot of "help" to survive in constant enclosure.
Having lived in both, they are about the same on an annual basis, but the trends are different. Phoenix fluctuates heavily, in the Summer vs Winter, while ABQ consistently runs about the same, Summers are warm and winters are cold.
Phoenix MSA in the 2010s decade:
April 1, 2010: 4,192,887
July 1, 2011: 4,247,852
July 1, 2012: 4,321,686
July 1, 2013: 4,390,565
July 1, 2014: 4,470,712
July 1, 2015: 4,558,145
July 1, 2016: 4,648,498
July 1, 2017: 4,737,270
Phoenix MSA Population Growth in the 2010s decade by year:
2010-2011: + 54,965
2011-2012: + 73,834
2012-2013: + 68,879
2013-2014: + 80,147
2014-2015: + 87,433
2015-2016: + 90,353
2016-2017: + 88,772
It is pretty clear that Phoenix's population growth is accelerating once again as the Great Recession gets left behind further and further in the rearview mirror.
Largest MSAs in the United States on April 1, 2010:
01. New York: 19,567,410
02. Los Angeles: 12,828,837
03. Chicago: 9,461,105
04. Dallas/Fort Worth: 6,426,214
05. Philadelphia: 5,965,343
06. Houston: 5,920,416
07. Washington, D.C.: 5,636,232
08. Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 5,564,635
09. Atlanta: 5,286,728
10. Boston: 4,552,402
11. San Francisco/Oakland: 4,335,391
12. Detroit: 4,296,250
13. Riverside/San Bernardino: 4,224,851
14. Phoenix: 4,192,887
Largest MSAs in the United States on July 1, 2017:
01. New York: 20,320,876
02. Los Angeles: 13,353,907
03. Chicago: 9,533,040
04. Dallas/Fort Worth: 7,399,662
05. Houston: 6,892,427
06. Washington, D.C.: 6,216,589
07. Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 6,158,824
08. Philadelphia: 6,096,120
09. Atlanta: 5,884,736
10. Boston: 4,836,531
11. Phoenix: 4,737,270
12. San Francisco/Oakland: 4,727,357
13. Riverside/San Bernardino: 4,580,670
14. Detroit: 4,313,002
Phoenix MSA should reach 5 million people by 2021, the year right after the census. I expect that by the year 2050 that Phoenix moves all the way up to #9 in the United States by population, followed by Riverside/San Bernardino MSA at #10 and San Francisco/Oakland at #11.
By 2050 - New York will remain #1, Los Angeles will remain #2, Dallas/Fort Worth will surpass Chicago for #3, Houston will surpass Chicago for #4, Chicago will occupy #5, with Atlanta at #6, Washington D.C. at #7, Miami/Fort Lauderdale at #8, and then Phoenix at #9. The Phoenix MSA will have surpassed the Philadelphia MSA by 2034 to take the #9 spot, so from 2034 to 2050 there is no expected rank change for Phoenix. Philadelphia, the big loser of this decade having fallen from #5 in 2010 to #8 in 2017, being surpassed by Houston, Washington DC, and Miami/Fort Lauderdale along the way, will move down to #9 by 2021 when Atlanta surpasses it to take the #8 spot from Philadelphia. By 2050, it is expected that Phoenix, Riverside/San Bernardino, and San Francisco/Oakland will all surpass Philadelphia as well, bumping it out of the Top 10 altogether. The Boston MSA may also surpass Philadelphia but it will be really close in 2050 between those two.
The Detroit MSA since 2010 continues to lose a lot of ground to fast-growing metropolitan areas in the South and West. This will remain to be the case through 2050. Time is not kind to Detroit or Philadelphia but in the case of Detroit, reaching stabilization after decades of volatile decline is a silver-lining.
By 2050, I expect the Phoenix MSA to have surpassed 8 million people. I expect Phoenix to slow down rapidly after 8 million when land constraints begin to restrict the growth in the region and lots for higher density infill become increasingly scarce. The driver to Phoenix's population growth is in its location, it is just directly east from an uber expensive state like California, in addition to Greater Phoenix's draw to Midwestern transplants. Phoenix will stay among the biggest destination cities in the United States leading up to midcentury.
Old thread but I think as long as we see steady growth we should be in the high 7’s by 2050, maybe even 8million but that’s a stretch.
And to the inevitable “we don’t have the water”. That’s completely inaccurate, Arizona uses about the same amount of water it did 20 years ago because most development is on former farm land which uses far more water than urban and suburban development.
Our econemy has totally changed since 2008 into a far more varied and dynamic system that at last is attracting high wage jobs in healthcare, finance and technology while continuing to be an agricultural and resource state (via metal and uranium) not to mention solid working class jobs in manufacturing and logistics.
The future of the state ecinomicaly and thus growth wise looks fantastic.
So yeah I’d guess in 30 years we will be just shy of 8 million with Tucson probably being near 2 million and some of the smaller metros like Prescott, havasue city, Yuma being several hundred thousand, the verde valley casa grande area and southeast part of the state is likely to see large population increases as well
Phoenix MSA should reach 5 million people by 2021, the year right after the census. I expect that by the year 2050 that Phoenix moves all the way up to #9 in the United States by population, followed by Riverside/San Bernardino MSA at #10 and San Francisco/Oakland at #11.
By 2050 - New York will remain #1, Los Angeles will remain #2, Dallas/Fort Worth will surpass Chicago for #3, Houston will surpass Chicago for #4, Chicago will occupy #5, with Atlanta at #6, Washington D.C. at #7, Miami/Fort Lauderdale at #8, and then Phoenix at #9. The Phoenix MSA will have surpassed the Philadelphia MSA by 2034 to take the #9 spot, so from 2034 to 2050 there is no expected rank change for Phoenix. Philadelphia, the big loser of this decade having fallen from #5 in 2010 to #8 in 2017, being surpassed by Houston, Washington DC, and Miami/Fort Lauderdale along the way, will move down to #9 by 2021 when Atlanta surpasses it to take the #8 spot from Philadelphia. By 2050, it is expected that Phoenix, Riverside/San Bernardino, and San Francisco/Oakland will all surpass Philadelphia as well, bumping it out of the Top 10 altogether. The Boston MSA may also surpass Philadelphia but it will be really close in 2050 between those two.
The Detroit MSA since 2010 continues to lose a lot of ground to fast-growing metropolitan areas in the South and West. This will remain to be the case through 2050. Time is not kind to Detroit or Philadelphia but in the case of Detroit, reaching stabilization after decades of volatile decline is a silver-lining.
By 2050, I expect the Phoenix MSA to have surpassed 8 million people. I expect Phoenix to slow down rapidly after 8 million when land constraints begin to restrict the growth in the region and lots for higher density infill become increasingly scarce. The driver to Phoenix's population growth is in its location, it is just directly east from an uber expensive state like California, in addition to Greater Phoenix's draw to Midwestern transplants. Phoenix will stay among the biggest destination cities in the United States leading up to midcentury.
If metro Phoenix is going to soon be in the top 10, we'd better concentrate on being more than just a cheaper, sunny oasis that attracts disgruntled Californians & Chicagoans. Fact of the matter is: Phoenix is not all that cheap. General cost of living is ever increasing, and housing is much more expensive than it used to be ... yet, the overall wages remain nearly stagnant, and there still is a serious lack of reputable global corporations headquartered here.
San Diego has been pretty much been in the same situation, and now it's so expensive to live and do business that it's not growing anywhere near the rate it did decades ago. Phoenix will be in the same boat if we allow CA styled prices and regulations to take over, but not the high paying jobs/incomes to offset it.
If metro Phoenix is going to soon be in the top 10, we'd better concentrate on being more than just a cheaper, sunny oasis that attracts disgruntled Californians & Chicagoans. Fact of the matter is: Phoenix is not all that cheap. General cost of living is ever increasing, and housing is much more expensive than it used to be ... yet, the overall wages remain nearly stagnant, and there still is a serious lack of reputable global corporations headquartered here.
San Diego has been pretty much been in the same situation, and now it's so expensive to live and do business that it's not growing anywhere near the rate it did decades ago. Phoenix will be in the same boat if we allow CA styled prices and regulations to take over, but not the high paying jobs/incomes to offset it.
There have been dozens of articles discussing the average wages in Arizona and they’ve been going up, the fastest industries are tech, financials and health which all bring above average wages. The average household income is just below national average which is horribly skewed by nyc and San Francisco.
The state has done a great job rounding out its economic growth away from the quite frankly outdated stereotype as a retiree center.
There have been dozens of articles discussing the average wages in Arizona and they’ve been going up, the fastest industries are tech, financials and health which all bring above average wages. The average household income is just below national average which is horribly skewed by nyc and San Francisco.
The state has done a great job rounding out its economic growth away from the quite frankly outdated stereotype as a retiree center.
It has gotten better in that regard, but still not where we need to be for as large of a city/metro area we are. Just on this forum alone, there are still lots of people who are looking to move here for retirement, and are looking for the quieter, less expensive lifestyle. Nothing wrong at all with having grandfathered age restricted communities within the metro area, but Phoenix (as both a city & region) still has somewhat of a reputation for attracting retirees. The main things we're still known for are sunshine & heat. I want to see Phoenix be known for more positive amenities that attract highly motivated & skilled people from around the nation & world.
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