What size do you see the Phoenix area growing into by 2050? (Tucson: living, price)

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Actually, even the suburban growth in far north Phoenix would be considered infill now because it's filling in the many empty spaces within the city limits. To prevent all that suburban sprawl type of growth from even happening within the city limits in the first place, Phoenix should have never annexed all that land north to Carefree Highway & beyond like they did in the '90s.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but Phoenix's city limits should have ended at Bell Road a long time ago. There was a time back in the late '70s or so when Deer Valley wanted to become its own municipality. That should have been permitted to happen, instead of allowing Phoenix to continue gulping up so many square miles. Deer Valley could have been a separate suburb of well over 100,000 by now with their own city services.

To the bolded, I guess it depends on your definition of "infill", but for most planners/developers infill would refer to parcels of land already wholly or mostly surrounded by existing development and with the ability to tie into existing infrastructure without having to extend or build it to the site. Anything that is not considered "greenfield" development (or in Phoenix's case "beigefield", not to be confused with "brownfield" which implies contamination). But yeah, if you are defining "infill" as anything within City limits, then sure there is plenty of that available.


Not sure about Deer Valley as I wasn't around back then, but I'm curious as to why it might be considered bad that Phoenix annexed that land? Phoenix is relatively progressive with regards to planning/zoning principles compared to most of it's suburbs (with a few exceptions such as Tempe) and has the means to ensure adequate infrastructure and services. Perhaps Deer Valley would have been fine or even better (and it helps that they'd have a huge employment and property/sales tax base), but who's to say?

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

Not sure about Deer Valley as I wasn't around back then, but I'm curious as to why it might be considered bad that Phoenix annexed that land? Phoenix is relatively progressive with regards to planning/zoning principles compared to most of it's suburbs (with a few exceptions such as Tempe) and has the means to ensure adequate infrastructure and services. Perhaps Deer Valley would have been fine or even better (and it helps that they'd have a huge employment and property/sales tax base), but who's to say?

Mainly because it allowed Phoenix to become too far reaching with non stop suburban type of growth. As far as square mileage, Phoenix is larger than mega cities like New York, Chicago, and L.A. Stopping the city limits at a certain point and allowing the districts (or "villages") like Deer Valley & Desert Ridge to become their own separate cities would have allowed Phoenix as a city to concentrate on building inward instead of outward so much. The way it is now, Phoenix's city government is enormous, and takes up too large of an area. Separate suburbs would have prevented that in the way of having their own city services (or perhaps even privatized services in some cases).

Outward suburban growth is fine for a suburb, but Phoenix isn't a suburb ... it's the core city of Maricopa County, and it should be not only the largest city, but the densest. The planners & developers should have listened to the founding fathers when they envisioned Phoenix would rise into a great city ... key word: RISE, not spread out.

[Stefan_from_Germany]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

I didn't mention Glendale only because it's a given it's going to build out well before the other places I mentioned. At current and historical rates of growth all the easily developable land in Surprise, Goodyear, and Peoria will be gone by 2050. Yes, there will be some holdouts so there will be a few infill parcels here and there, like what the situation is in Chandler now. There may also be some parcels with limited water rights or serious topographical challenges remaining, but all the good stuff will be gone. So really, once those places are gone all that's left out west will be in Buckeye. Have you seen Buckeye's boundaries? It's huge. It essentially will have a monopoly on all municipal growth once you get to the White Tanks and points north and south of there. If you have money to burn and a lot of patience (and lifespan remaining), go ahead and invest in some land in Buckeye right now. In 30 years I guarantee it will be worth a lot lot more money.


Full disclosure: I'm in the land acquisition/strategy/development business. It's what I do.

Hi,

As you are a subject matter expert I'd be interested in your opinion regarding the future of the "Whispering Ranch" area (close to the Toyota proving grounds NW of 299th Av and Patton Rd. in Wittmann). I read that there are some major roadways, such as the "Hidden Waters Parkway" planned for the area which should really spark growth in the area if and when those plans turn into reality. Any thoughts on likelihood of that happening and possible timescale?

Thanks.

[2Easy]

Originally Posted by adriver

Considering we have no real reason for this city to be here, were just in the desert built around I-10, were long past being bigger than we should have been.

I've been reading this thread with people arguing whether 110F is worse than 20F as if those are the only two choices wondering why on earth people live in Phoenix. Sounds like a troll, but I don't mean it to be. I've been to Phoenix a few times and have enjoyed it but unless you love hot weather, and I don't, I don't see the allure.

As far as the topic, it seems as if many do see the allure so I expect Phoenix to keep growing around 1-3% per year for the next couple of decades and peaking around 7 million.

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by Stefan_from_Germany

Hi,

As you are a subject matter expert I'd be interested in your opinion regarding the future of the "Whispering Ranch" area (close to the Toyota proving grounds NW of 299th Av and Patton Rd. in Wittmann). I read that there are some major roadways, such as the "Hidden Waters Parkway" planned for the area which should really spark growth in the area if and when those plans turn into reality. Any thoughts on likelihood of that happening and possible timescale?

Thanks.

There is a proposed I-11 alignment that would go close to there, as well as proposed "White Tanks Freeway" that would essentially be the next outer loop for the West Valley, even farther out from the 303 (maybe it could be the 404 in time?). If and when those get built then I think you'll see some action in the Whispering Ranch area. Not likely until then. That said, neither of those projects are likely going to be built sooner than another 15 years, at minimum.

[Stefan_from_Germany]

Thanks ShampooBanana. I appreciate that you took the time to answer.

[cjseliga]

Originally Posted by Stefan_from_Germany

Thanks ShampooBanana. I appreciate that you took the time to answer.

Here's a map of where I-11 might go, I'm thinking it will probably go due south from Morristown and follow the Sun Valley Parkway to AZ 85, which will be upgraded to interstate standards. When will it be built, that all depends on when the environmental studies are complete and how much the feds are chipping in to help build it:

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by 2Easy

I've been reading this thread with people arguing whether 110F is worse than 20F as if those are the only two choices wondering why on earth people live in Phoenix. Sounds like a troll, but I don't mean it to be. I've been to Phoenix a few times and have enjoyed it but unless you love hot weather, and I don't, I don't see the allure.

The climate is highly subjective. Some people actually like the Phoenix summers, and believe they can tolerate them better than other parts of the country where winters contain long periods of sub freezing temps, ice, and snow. In my own personal experience, it seems to be the more recent transplants who fit in this category. Most natives and long term residents who I've known dislike the summer heat (myself included). The way I see it: the same kind of weather becomes monotonous after a while. I like a little variety ... and besides, I need to stay cool for health & comfort reasons. The only "allure" for me in the summer is to escape to cooler destinations on a regular basis.

[blam]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

I'll name three cities with better climates & smaller populations than Phoenix, and aren't exactly crowded: San Diego, Santa Barbara, Honolulu. The main problem with those places is the high cost of living, but they are still beautiful areas, and life isn't exactly miserable for those who can afford it.

Personally I agree with your point that theres at least a bunch of cities with better climates than Phoenix but you gave absolutely terrible examples. Obviously these places have much better climates. Even people who defend 115 temp as nice weather know that. However the cost of living is so extreme in these cities nobody even thinks about them as realistic destination for living. So you cannot use these examples to argue with the Phoenix-people

People who say Phoenix has a really good climate/temperature pretty much disqualify any city that has a possibility of snow and also everything east of New Mexico because of the humidity. So if you also filter out any city that is more expensive than Phoenix you are not left with much. At this point you are restricted only to the southwest excluding close to the ocean because of price. In my opinion there is only one city that has better climate than Phoenix based on this criteria. Albuquerque, NM. However Phoenix-people wouldn't want to live there because of other reasons like lack of jobs etc.


Personally I would choose almost any other city before Phoenix because I just can't handle breathing the AC air all day every day, makes my throat hurt.

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by blam

Personally I agree with your point that theres at least a bunch of cities with better climates than Phoenix but you gave absolutely terrible examples. Obviously these places have much better climates. Even people who defend 115 temp as nice weather know that. However the cost of living is so extreme in these cities nobody even thinks about them as realistic destination for living. So you cannot use these examples to argue with the Phoenix-people

People who say Phoenix has a really good climate/temperature pretty much disqualify any city that has a possibility of snow and also everything east of New Mexico because of the humidity. So if you also filter out any city that is more expensive than Phoenix you are not left with much. At this point you are restricted only to the southwest excluding close to the ocean because of price. In my opinion there is only one city that has better climate than Phoenix based on this criteria. Albuquerque, NM. However Phoenix-people wouldn't want to live there because of other reasons like lack of jobs etc.


Personally I would choose almost any other city before Phoenix because I just can't handle breathing the AC air all day every day, makes my throat hurt.

Albuquerque gets snow and doesn't have palm trees, due to winter lows in the 10's and 20's. They still get cold in Dec and Jan, don't kid yourself.

Me, I admit that Los Angeles has a better climate than here, and I am going to be moving there once personal affairs here in Phoenix are wrapped up. So COL doesn't deter everybody