Housing Bubble? (Phoenix, Yuma: mortgages, loan, home sales)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by asufan

Northridge isn't the most desirable location in CA, it's in a distant part of the valley where it gets hot in the Summer. It's very far away from shopping, employment and entertainment. Scottsdale and Arcadia are considered desirable parts of the Phoenix market.

My parents still have their house in Orange County which they rent out. It's an old 1970's era 2-story, about 2200 SF. It's worth about the same as my house here which is single story semi-custom on a large lot, 4000 SF, pool, spa 4 car garage, much higher end interior upgrades. And orange county is nowhere near the prices of the more desirable parts of LA county. See what $850,000 gets you in Sherman Oaks for example, hardly anything.

The average July temp un Northridge is 94. It is 91 in Sherman Oaks.
I understand NORTHridge isn't as central. I could not handle being so central because the traffic would be a killer.
My point was the outerburbs of LA use to be overpriced in comparison to most ideal locations in PHX.
When people want $700k for a small 1980 untouched home in McCormick Ranch ( and getting it), that is when I stopped looking. Point blank, I dont see the value any longer.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

The average July temp un Northridge is 94. It is 91 in Sherman Oaks.
I understand NORTHridge isn't as central. I could not handle being so central because the traffic would be a killer.
My point was the outerburbs of LA use to be overpriced in comparison to most ideal locations in PHX.
When people want $700k for a small 1980 untouched home in McCormick Ranch ( and getting it), that is when I stopped looking. Point blank, I dont see the value any longer.

Just keep in mind that most medicare level traffic in SoCal is worse than some the worst traffic here in PHX area. The people that think there's "traffic" in the Valley haven't apparently spent much time SoCal traffic. Traffic can be very bad in SoCal even during non-rush hours. Hard to generalize, but just a warning to really check it out before jumping, of course.

[DougStark]

Originally Posted by asufan

Lots of areas in Orange County have additional Mello Roos taxes as well. Despite the higher costs we plan to return within the next 8-10 years or so, weather is too perfect

asufan, Mello Roos taxes aren't just in Orange County. About 20 yrs ago I looked at new homes in San Diego metro. They both had Mello Roos taxes (which aren't cheap, btw.) It's like having two property taxes to deal with. The older areas don't have them--generally they are in the new developments.

[TedMosby]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

Just keep in mind that most medicare level traffic in SoCal is worse than some the worst traffic here in PHX area. The people that think there's "traffic" in the Valley haven't apparently spent much time SoCal traffic. Traffic can be very bad in SoCal even during non-rush hours. Hard to generalize, but just a warning to really check it out before jumping, of course.

Wow, haven't heard this about 4 million times. Remember Phoenicians, traffic can never be bad in Phoenix because it's worse in SoCal. Also, in case everyone doesn't know .. the downtown Phoenix skyline doesn't compare to downtown New York city.

Yes, SoCal and Los Angeles are the kings of freeways and traffic. Most people in the west already know that. That does not mean traffic can't get nasty in Phoenix .. and I am from SoCal and have spent plenty of time commuting in both regions. Once a month (not for work, but an appointment) during rush hour I sit in 7 lanes of completely backed up traffic traveling the 202 from Tempe to the I10 and all the way to the West Valley where it takes me only an hour and 45mins (given there are no accidents) to get home and all I can think is .. I'm living the dream compared to SoCal. No, I actually think this feels just like SoCal at times.

You're right, on a grand scale Phoenix traffic doesn't compare directly to SoCal traffic, but that doesn't mean it can't get pretty nasty. Maricopa county is growing at a clip of almost 100,000 people per year and it will get heavier, but rest assured we will always get to hear how traffic is so much worse in the state to the west of us. In Phoenix you might be completely stopped in 7 lanes of traffic, but in SoCal .. it's worse, they are forced to travel backwards.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

Just keep in mind that most medicare level traffic in SoCal is worse than some the worst traffic here in PHX area. The people that think there's "traffic" in the Valley haven't apparently spent much time SoCal traffic. Traffic can be very bad in SoCal even during non-rush hours. Hard to generalize, but just a warning to really check it out before jumping, of course.

Understood about the horrific traffic. Depending on the survey, LA traffic is the worst in the WORLD!

I will be getting off from a MX cruise in a few days out of Long Beach. We plan on checking out some areas while we are out in southern CA.

All of a sudden, southern CA is something I want to study. Spending $1M in PHX seems crazy. I would rather kick in some to get down to one property without freezing or roasting my butt off. The extra amount in taxes us a lot less than taking care of two places.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Understood about the horrific traffic. Depending on the survey, LA traffic is the worst in the WORLD!

I will be getting off from a MX cruise in a few days out of Long Beach. We plan on checking out some areas while we are out in southern CA.

All of a sudden, southern CA is something I want to study. Spending $1M in PHX seems crazy. I would rather kick in some to get down to one property without freezing or roasting my butt off. The extra amount in taxes us a lot less than taking care of two places.

Consider San Diego County as a lower cost alternative. A million goes a little further there. I prefer North County personally.

[Skerzz]

I own a rental/starter home in North County San Diego. Weather is much better there, but the politics, traffic, and cost of living are major negatives. Housing prices are not really comparable unless you move out to “rural” SD county, but to many that only works if you are retired and/or work from home and dont mind questionable schools, long drives to the airport, and all the best things SD has to offer (Del Mar, La Jolla, Coronado, Gaslamp, Balboad park, Torrey Pines and beaches) And you are ok sacrificing some on the weather (it gets hot in easy county). For around $1M here (ex zip 85254 or 85013) you can have a large centrally located home on a large lot in close proximity to good schoohls, shopping, entertainment , professional jobs, and an international airport. That would run you at least 1.5 - 2x more with $15k+ annual property tax bills in SD county. If you are a working family you can also expect your state income tax to roughly double. Just my opinion after having owned and lived in both metro areas...

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Understood about the horrific traffic. Depending on the survey, LA traffic is the worst in the WORLD!

I will be getting off from a MX cruise in a few days out of Long Beach. We plan on checking out some areas while we are out in southern CA.

All of a sudden, southern CA is something I want to study. Spending $1M in PHX seems crazy. I would rather kick in some to get down to one property without freezing or roasting my butt off. The extra amount in taxes us a lot less than taking care of two places.

It just comes down to how much is a great climate worth to you and can you afford it. The thing is, you're going to pay triple for a comparable house, lot, amenities, etc. in Socal but that price differential is likely to hold up over time. I would expect the Socal option to always keep a lid on Phoenix house prices.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Tall Traveler

The thing is, you're going to pay triple for a comparable house, lot, amenities, etc. in Socal but that price differential is likely to hold up over time. I would expect the Socal option to always keep a lid on Phoenix house prices.

It depends on what you are after. I am in an era of my life where I can appreciate like minded people around me. I have pushed out the concept of active adult living. But at age 54 and marching forward, I have decided to give it a closer look.
If you look at those Masterplanned communities, often, they're on the outer suburbs. The areas that are newer and first class at first glance all cost about the same. We studied Pebble Creek in Goodyear. That's about a $700 to $900,000 problem. Add $100k to $150k in CA. But I have just started looking.

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

It depends on what you are after. I am in an era of my life where I can appreciate like minded people around me. I have pushed out the concept of active adult living. But at age 54 and marching forward, I have decided to give it a closer look.
If you look at those Masterplanned communities, often, they're on the outer suburbs. The areas that are newer and first class at first glance all cost about the same. We studied Pebble Creek in Goodyear. That's about a $700 to $900,000 problem. Add $100k to $150k in CA. But I have just started looking.

I looked at a house at Pebble Creek built in 2012 with premium finishes, a pool and hot tub for $759K. I think you'll be well over a million in Socal unless you get far inland, in which case, why go there? So to me, you either downgrade your house or spend more and downgrade your other expenses and live near the coast where you truly have a fantastic climate.

That house in Pebble Creek would be at least $1.2M near Seattle and could be significantly more in the right location.