This housing market is unsustainable. Why? And when will things cool down again? (Phoenix: credit score, lenders)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by asufan

That's way too little (for me). I want 95%+ sunny days. Of course that's not great for the environment but that's another topic.

Something to keep in mind: If it rains on a Thursday, baseball fields will likely be unplayable on both Thursday and Friday. If it rains twice a week, that's 4 days of canceled games or practices. The stage of life I'm in now, I prefer an overabundance of sunny days. Most of my peer group would likely agree. I agree Austin is a livable city, it would be in my top 15 metros if I had to move, I just prefer the weather in a half dozen other places.

Here in PHX, we have poorly drained soil. It's why there are so many washes. I cannot speak for Austin, but in MN, if it rains on Thursday, shy of a massive downpour, you are playing an hour later. If we got 3" of rain, then give it a few hours or maybe shut down a field because of standing water (because it was not leveled propertly).

I was at a ballpark every summer when our daughter was in a traveling softball league. They played in other parts of the country (GA, OH, Midwest etc) from youth to 18 years old. What you are speaking of is unique to areas of the country like PHX. Again, I cannot speak for Austin. She never played there...

I'm with you. I positively LOVE the sunshine!

[asufan]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Here in PHX, we have poorly drained soil. It's why there are so many washes. I cannot speak for Austin, but in MN, if it rains on Thursday, shy of a massive downpour, you are playing an hour later. If we got 3" of rain, then give it a few hours or maybe shut down a field because of standing water (because it was not leveled propertly).

I was at a ballpark every summer when our daughter was in a traveling softball league. They played in other parts of the country (GA, OH, Midwest etc) from youth to 18 years old. What you are speaking of is unique to areas of the country like PHX. Again, I cannot speak for Austin. She never played there...

I'm with you. I positively LOVE the sunshine!

Must be the amazing Minnesota parks . We've had games cancelled in AZ, California and Colorado. The city parks departments don't like cleats on wet fields because it creates more work for them to repair the playing surface.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by asufan

Must be the amazing Minnesota parks . We've had games cancelled in AZ, California and Colorado.

I really don't know why you think they would shut down a field in most states. In MN and when it is hot, they water (sprinkle) about 1/2 inch a day. Maybe AZ would shut down the fields for a week. lol Because in the Northern state, the water zips right through. In AZ, you water for 2 minutes and it is already running off.

I cannot speak for CO drainage. But if you have caliche soil (NV, NM, a lot of CA, and AZ desert) it's going to be soup for a long time and barely drain. In many of the states, the grassroots go down 10-15 inches. It's about 4-6" deep here. Sure, the field gets some bruises, give it a few days and it will grow like hell especially in humid months.

Maybe it is the type of grass. I'm not sure. All I know is the nice fields mow around 3x a week from June through August. They are green and lush. Personally, I use to mow my AZ lawn every two weeks when we had grass here. In MN, our landscaper mows twice a week MN. Apples-Oranges. Heck, our water table is 10 feet deep.

[MalteseJane]

Originally Posted by Katera

And this is exactly why we jumped in and bought, even at the elevated prices now there is sooooo much more headroom in Phoenix for prices to keep going up up and up. There is a huge shortage of housing right now and it's not going away anytime soon, but the worst part was not the home price increases, it was what this poster mentioned...the rents. Rentpocolypse it upon us. The same house we rented for $1600/month last May in Surprise is going for over $2k/month now. And so it goes.

People waiting for a price crash are going to be sorely disappointed in 5 years when their rent has doubled and so have the house prices.

On a side note, we went to look at new construction as an option. They said they would love to sell us a house but we had to be chosen by...wait for it......a LOTTERY. THEY LITERALLY ARE PICKING A FEW NAMES OUT OF A HAT FOR THE RIGHT TO BUY ONE OF THEIR NEW HOMES. LOL man, I thought I had seen it all. This was Lenar btw. Now that is some crazy demand.

Festival Foothills was doing the lottery thing too. I don't know about the retired side but they cannot build fast enough.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by MalteseJane

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Festival Foothills was doing the lottery thing too. I don't know about the retired side but they cannot build fast enough.

1 year quoted lead times plus the lottery drawing are now standard builder techniques. Prices have risen by way of no promos, high lot premiums, and increased pricing.

We had a friend who wants to buy a new build in our newer neighborhood. They were told that they were #3 out of 4 people who put down the $40K deposit on this specific started home. One of the development builders has capped the started homes per month at 25 while the other builder in our neighborhood has stopped taking any new builds. Both are quoting > 1 year from finishing. I suspect there are close to 100+ homes that are in a building phase or about 4-5 months of started homes.

Call me suspicious, but drawing privately from a hat seems a little suspect. Here is why: each salesperson gets their allotment (I think there are 4 salespersons). Now let's say there are 4 people who were in that specific drawing and salesperson #2 or #3 have been drawn more often in the 25 allotments. What happens? Or how about as a salesperson, you are capped at 7 builds per month. If some of your buyers used an outside agent to represent them, who says it's fair? Meaning, are you on equal footing. I mean, the "house" (builder or builders RE agent) makes more $$ if they "draw" a double commission deposited customer.

Officially, it might be fair. If it is, then why do it in private? When it comes to money, I get suspicious. Therefore, when I heard there was a drawing in a hat and I knew our friends had an outside agent representing them, I wasn't holding my breath.

[Katera]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hou...22403?mod=e2tw


Prices are not going down....

[Tall Traveler]

This is a fluid situation but reading the tea leaves I now see, I predict a downturn in 2022 because the FED has pretty much stated they intend to keep low interest through 2021 and wee are now starting to see a wall of inflation coming....when the FED can no longer keep pumping money into the economy due to inflation, they will put the brakes on in the 1st quarter of 2022 and raise interest rates which will precipitate a crash in the market and in housing prices. My best guess currently.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by Tall Traveler

This is a fluid situation but reading the tea leaves I now see, I predict a downturn in 2022 because the FED has pretty much stated they intend to keep low interest through 2021 and wee are now starting to see a wall of inflation coming....when the FED can no longer keep pumping money into the economy due to inflation, they will put the brakes on in the 1st quarter of 2022 and raise interest rates which will precipitate a crash in the market and in housing prices. My best guess currently.

Jerome Powell: "Hold my beer."

[kell490]

As the country opens back up I think people will start listing homes again not sure just low interest rates was the cause of low inventory, but more to do with uncertainty in ones mind. I want to sell my house but not during covid for a few reasons one will I be able to find work easily if I move, and two do I really want people in my house during covid.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by kell490

As the country opens back up I think people will start listing homes again not sure just low interest rates was the cause of low inventory, but more to do with uncertainty in ones mind. I want to sell my house but not during covid for a few reasons one will I be able to find work easily if I move, and two do I really want people in my house during covid.

You probably don't have to worry about #2 right now, it seems many and probably most homes are being sold unseen. I recently had friends go through the process of buying and this happened to them on 10 different homes they were interested in.

My concern with selling now would be finding another place to live and the likelihood of rate increases making that even harder. Luckily, we have no desire or need to leave.