Home values still going down? Why? (Phoenix, Arizona City: sale, real estate, foreclosures)

[las vegas drunk]

I just found this when I went to my yahoo email. Home prices in Phoenix are not going down, they are going up. Only Detroit and Las Vegas has gone down.....

Home price report: Case-Shiller shows increase of 2.9% - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-price-report-CaseShiller-cnnm-4029446167.html?x=0&.v=6 - broken link)

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by jwest09

I noticed on Zillow, that the valleys home values are still going down thousands each 30 days. How long does anyone think this trend will last and when they think it will stabilize? Other western states home prices are on their way back up, at last.

Read this post:
https://www.city-data.com/forum/phoen...l#post10425164

You'll see that the Phoenix home prices have increased by 7.4 since April.
Inventory has declined in the below $400k price ranges down to 3-4 months supply. Buying has increased and prices have increased.

It's a different story in the luxury market.

Zillow is pure folly.

[Beena]

Yes, like Capt Bill said, prices are dropping and they will continue to. I would be very depressed if I had purchased within the past 3 years and no way would I purchase within the next couple.

Take a look at the schedule for ARM resets. It will peak in 2011 in the Phx Metro area. Expect prices to bottom out around then, with some time spent bouncing around the bottom before slow appreciation again takes place.

[LordBalfor]

Originally Posted by Beena

Yes, like Capt Bill said, prices are dropping and they will continue to. I would be very depressed if I had purchased within the past 3 years and no way would I purchase within the next couple.

Take a look at the schedule for ARM resets. It will peak in 2011 in the Phx Metro area. Expect prices to bottom out around then, with some time spent bouncing around the bottom before slow appreciation again takes place.

You need to reread Capt Bill's post - he wrote tht prices are RISING (which they ARE).

The ARM resets are an issue, but housing sales are picking up fast, and the backlog of inventory will be pretty much at normal levels (and housing prices still rising) by the time the those ARMs start resetting so they will simply be obsorbed into the market in a more or less normal manner.

Ken

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by LordBalfor

You need to reread Capt Bill's post - he wrote tht prices are RISING (which they ARE).

The ARM resets are an issue, but housing sales are picking up fast, and the backlog of inventory will be pretty much at normal levels (and housing prices still rising) by the time the those ARMs start resetting so they will simply be obsorbed into the market in a more or less normal manner.

Ken

Some of the arms will reset to lower rates. The 12 month Libor is 1.35 this week. One year ago it was 3.37.

I have an arm on the 12 month Libor and my rate will go down on Sept 1 for the second year in a row.

[LordBalfor]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Some of the arms will reset to lower rates. The 12 month Libor is 1.35 this week. One year ago it was 3.37.

I have an arm on the 12 month Libor and my rate will go down on Sept 1 for the second year in a row.

Wow!
I have to say that I fully expected ARMS to be higher, but you are right - depending on the type of ARM many of them could be lower.

Ken

[Wyoming Darrell]

Actually, the only thing that sets the value is what someone will actually pay for it. Every thing else is a guess. Sometimes it's an educated guess, but it remains a guess.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Wyoming Darrell

Actually, the only thing that sets the value is what someone will actually pay for it. Every thing else is a guess. Sometimes it's an educated guess, but it remains a guess.

I would say there are several things that determine value:

• What a buyer will pay
• What a seller will sell for, when not under pressure to sell
• Supply and demand

When there was more supply than demand the prices went down.
Now there is more demand than suppy in the lower price ranges, so the prices leveled off and have increased.

When there is more demand than suppy, the buyers will bid prices up in the multiple offer process. That has been happening for the past few months.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

I would say there are several things that determine value:

• What a buyer will pay
• What a seller will sell for, when not under pressure to sell
• Supply and demand

When there was more supply than demand the prices went down.
Now there is more demand than suppy in the lower price ranges, so the prices leveled off and have increased.

When there is more demand than suppy, the buyers will bid prices up in the multiple offer process. That has been happening for the past few months.

There is not more demand than supply, let's not kid ourselves. Only in certain pockets do you see multiple offers, and that is when the realtors price the properties with the express purpose of generating multiple offers and driving the price up. I also don't buy that prices are increasing. If you look at any submarket, and evaluate price per square foot for 0-3 months, and then 3-6 months, you will see that prices are pretty stable, with some submarkets showing small losses, and some showing small gains. It doesn't mean the PHX market as a whole is increasing. For every article that anyone can provide to show that the market is increasing, I can provide 10 that show it is decreasing or stable.

By the way, the definition of Market Value is: "The most probable price which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller, each acting prudently, knowledgeably and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus." In other words, a willing buyer and a willing seller without undue duress.

[amatrine]

I do not think we will see prices go anywhere unless the job market improves.

Without jobs who is going to buy these homes?

Here in Arizona City , a lot of the homes are worth less than the build cost.

There are a huge amount under 50k now. IN a year and a half my house lost half its value, and according to zillow went down another 7,500 last month.

There are few homes for sale here now because the forclosures are selling for
20-40 k and they are not selling! So no point in listing.