Home values still going down? Why? (Phoenix: bank owned, sales, refinance)

[jwest09]

I noticed on Zillow, that the valleys home values are still going down thousands each 30 days. How long does anyone think this trend will last and when they think it will stabilize? Other western states home prices are on their way back up, at last.

[AZgarden]

the supply of housing is still too great for the demand. Builders built and built and now all those homes sit empty. Until all the homes are sold and people have to compete for a house, the prices will probably continue down. I would say another 2 years. JMHO.

[Home_Kid]

oh boy, just wait until a ton of ARM's reset soon. in various markets home values will continue to fall. another problem is the HB's themselves. Pulte in Red Rock is selling homes about 50% less than they did 2 years ago. imagine being a new homeowner there 2 years ago. Pulte is destroying home values so that Pulte execs can keep their private jets flying!

[sh9730]

Zillow shouldnt be considered trusted source. It says mine has gone UP 11% in last year, even though my zip code is down 10%. However, I do believe at the LOWER end (under 200K like mine), things have stabilized somewhat over the last few months as I have posted in the past about. July figures continue to bear that trend.

[Rick Lee]

Zillow is totally unreliable.

[asufan]

Zillow says my house is smaller than it is by 1,450 square feet (it missed the basement). It is inaccurate as often as it is accurate.

Having said that, prices are falling because the only sales have been bank owned fire sales, and that's not over yet. Some areas of town are starting to stabilize, and some are actually seeing a ton of new construction. I think we're close to stabilizing (there are many sub-markets in the valley that will stabilize at different times). Since prices have now reached 1995 levels, I think people are starting to realize that now is a good time to buy if you have the means.

Though things may be stabilizing in the next 6 months, I don't think you'll see much growth for 2-3 years as the immense lender owned inventory is slowly worked through.

[LordBalfor]

Phoenix home prices (at least in some price points) appear to be going up the last 3 months (as is the case in much of the country now).

Phoenix Market Reports - July 2009

Ken

[asufan]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Zillow shouldnt be considered trusted source. It says mine has gone UP 11% in last year, even though my zip code is down 10%. However, I do believe at the LOWER end (under 200K like mine), things have stabilized somewhat over the last few months as I have posted in the past about. July figures continue to bear that trend.

Look at all the houses in Maryvale that zillow says are worth $100,000+, but comp out (thus appraising) at $50,000. Those poor people probably try to refinance based on what zillow says it's worth, and once they are $500 out of pocket on the deal, are told they have negative equity.

[QuirkyBound]

Originally Posted by asufan

Zillow says my house is smaller than it is by 1,450 square feet (it missed the basement).

Actually, in most markets you can NOT legally claim the basement as square footage. Whether or not your basement is finished, it normally has to be mentioned separately as a feature but can not be included to up your square footage.

Not sure if Phoenix is a rare exception to this but doubt it. Underground living space does not value out the same as above ground.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by QuirkyBound

Actually, in most markets you can NOT legally claim the basement as square footage. Whether or not your basement is finished, it normally has to be mentioned separately as a feature but can not be included to up your square footage.

Not sure if Phoenix is a rare exception to this but doubt it. Underground living space does not value out the same as above ground.

It's really only in appraisals that the two are separated. There's above grade livable area, and below grade livable area. Arizona is different than most states back East, where basements aren't typically finished, celings are much lower, etc., so they break out the area from the livable area when properties are sold. Here, basements are included in the livable area in all marketing from MLS and by home builders, and in tax records. Besides, it wouldn't explain why all of my neighbors that have the same floorplan have the basement area listed as livable area on zillow, and mine does not. (Zillow screwed up).

Even though you can assign a lower value to a basement (let's say $90/Sq. Ft. vs. $100/Sq. Ft. above grade), it doesn't explain why zillow did not account for it at all and assign a value for it. It includes 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, gameroom, wet bar, so it definitely should have been accounted for.

Just proves the point I made that zillow can not be used as an accurate way to estimate value for your home.