Population loss

[pman]

or this

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by pman

is there any census tract data available for the city?

I also posted this in another thread--this is by neighborhood, not Census tract, and you need to swap Downtown and the Bluff do to the Census "relocating" the jail:



Incidentally, I think there is a decent chance at least some of those light-purple areas turned positive in the last few years of the decade.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by CortlandGirl79

Youngstown has potential...........otherwise why would V&M Star Steel be building a new mill here and investing $650 million into Youngstown/Girard. They may also add a melt shop making a total investment of over $1 Billion.

I was just reminded of this study:

Educational Attainment Trends in the Fourth District :: Stephan Whitaker :: Economic Trends :: 02.03.11 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The educational attainment rates among working-age adults in Youngstown is increasing faster than the nation--not quite as fast as in Pittsburgh, and starting from a lower base in 2000. But in a couple decades, they could be where we are now. And maybe faster than that.

[pman]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I also posted this in another thread--this is by neighborhood, not Census tract, and you need to swap Downtown and the Bluff do to the Census "relocating" the jail:
Incidentally, I think there is a decent chance at least some of those light-purple areas turned positive in the last few years of the decade.

thanks, that's what I was looking for. just to clarify, this map has not adjusted for the moving of inmates? that seems to be the only explanation for the golden triangle losing population, or am I missing something?
as for other areas, it seems like the trend here is similar. growth in a few select "core" areas in and around downtown and oakland...notably the north shore/side adn the strip. I think there's a good chance the green will spread into allegheny west/manchester and the strip...and hopefully the areas will "run into each other." The census is a snapshot and I think pittsburgh turned the corner too late for the census...although compared to cleveland maybe I shouldn't say that. If you look at statewide population numbers, the growing counties go furthest west at the southern portion of the state which potentiall bodes well for the city.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by pman

thanks, that's what I was looking for. just to clarify, this map has not adjusted for the moving of inmates? that seems to be the only explanation for the golden triangle losing population, or am I missing something?

As I understand it, in 2000 they coded the jail as being Downtown, and in 2010 they coded it as being in the Bluff, so it looks like the inmates moved out of Downtown and into the Bluff, which of course didn't actually happen.

as for other areas, it seems like the trend here is similar. growth in a few select "core" areas in and around downtown and oakland...notably the north shore/side adn the strip. I think there's a good chance the green will spread into allegheny west/manchester and the strip...and hopefully the areas will "run into each other." The census is a snapshot and I think pittsburgh turned the corner too late for the census...

I think you are right on all counts. I expect all those green areas to start spreading out, and in fact I think a few of the purple areas were likely growing by the end of the decade, just not enough to be positive for the full ten years yet.

[pman]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

As I understand it, in 2000 they coded the jail as being Downtown, and in 2010 they coded it as being in the Bluff, so it looks like the inmates moved out of Downtown and into the Bluff, which of course didn't actually happen....
I think you are right on all counts. I expect all those green areas to start spreading out, and in fact I think a few of the purple areas were likely growing by the end of the decade, just not enough to be positive for the full ten years yet.

so it's likely the golden triangle should be green...makes a lot more sense.
I think the trend of "back to the core" has picked up with the downturn. I think you mentioned in another thread that PA has benefitted. I think as places like florida and arizona struggle with jobs, people are moving back home and giving it a shot.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by pman

I think the trend of "back to the core" has picked up with the downturn. I think you mentioned in another thread that PA has benefitted. I think as places like florida and arizona struggle with jobs, people are moving back home and giving it a shot.

There are a lot of things converging. As you note, boomerangers are coming back to places like Pittsburgh. Gas prices and congestion have people questioning long commutes. People are noticing core areas held up better as the bubble burst. Young people seem legitimately more interested in urban living. And it all builds on itself.

Could be an interesting next decade--I'm already looking forward to the next Census!

[pman]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

There are a lot of things converging. As you note, boomerangers are coming back to places like Pittsburgh. Gas prices and congestion have people questioning long commutes. People are noticing core areas held up better as the bubble burst. Young people seem legitimately more interested in urban living. And it all builds on itself.

Could be an interesting next decade--I'm already looking forward to the next Census!

a lot of the federal problems are gone as well (red lining, title 1 urban renewal, welfare reform) and money even for new highways is scarce. add to that reduced emissions and cities are actually nicer places to live than they once were. I

[BrianTH]

Absolutely. You can add to the list that crime is down, urban waterways are cleaner, people are better at planning streets and buildings that are friendly to pedestrians, and on and on.

Of course there will likely still be some neighborhoods declining this next decade, and maybe the decade after that. But the balance is shifting, and from the inside.