Change in net in-migration, 2005 versus 2010 (Pittsburgh, York: apartment, homes, employment)

[BrianTH]

Just to give some more numbers:

Here is Boston's population by Census, 1900 to 2010:

1900 560,892 +25.1%
1910 670,585 +19.6%
1920 748,060 +11.6%
1930 781,188 +4.4%
1940 770,816 −1.3%
1950 801,444 +4.0%
1960 697,197 −13.0%
1970 641,071 −8.1%
1980 562,994 −12.2%
1990 574,283 +2.0%
2000 589,141 +2.6%
2010 617,594 +4.8%

Between 1950 and 1980, Boston lost about 30% of its population. Despite slow growth in the next three decades, it is still down 23% from 1950. But housing prices nonetheless skyrocketed in that time.

No one has a crystal ball, but I think there is a good chance that Pittsburgh in 2010 is much like Boston in 1980. And again, it would be nice to see if there is anything we can learn from the last three decades of history in places like Boston.

[airwave09]

Originally Posted by h_curtis

The little pictures are cute, but one must remember:

Well those "cute little pictures" just so happen to be some new and thought-provoking information... interesting concept eh?

Only h_curtis can turn a thread about people finally moving IN to PIttsburgh into a negative argument.

[bradjl2009]

About those changes in net migration.......

Region records population gain for 2nd year in a row

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Just to give some more numbers:

Here is Boston's population by Census, 1900 to 2010:

1900 560,892 +25.1%
1910 670,585 +19.6%
1920 748,060 +11.6%
1930 781,188 +4.4%
1940 770,816 −1.3%
1950 801,444 +4.0%
1960 697,197 −13.0%
1970 641,071 −8.1%
1980 562,994 −12.2%
1990 574,283 +2.0%
2000 589,141 +2.6%
2010 617,594 +4.8%

Between 1950 and 1980, Boston lost about 30% of its population. Despite slow growth in the next three decades, it is still down 23% from 1950. But housing prices nonetheless skyrocketed in that time.

No one has a crystal ball, but I think there is a good chance that Pittsburgh in 2010 is much like Boston in 1980. And again, it would be nice to see if there is anything we can learn from the last three decades of history in places like Boston.

However, Boston's metro continued to grow. Since 1980, there have only been 4 years of negative growth in the Boston MSA.

Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA Population and Components of Change -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home

Pittsburgh has had 26 years of negative growth in that period, all but 3 years in the early 90s.

Pittsburgh, PA MSA Population and Components of Change -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home

Every city has its own unique situation.

[MathmanMathman]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

About those changes in net migration.......

Region records population gain for 2nd year in a row

They seem to suggest that Pittsburgh tends to hold in population during a recession although Pittsburgh seems to be attracting some this time as Pittsburgh's job market is a bit better. The movement seems to be from Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, Columbus, and Western Pa in general. Past population exchanges were primarily from NYC, DC, and Philly.

They also said that Allegheny County continues to shrink with the surrounding counties picking up population. But I keep hearing news about the death of the outer suburbs in America. I guess its mostly spin and wishful thinking by Smart Growth advocates.

[MathmanMathman]

Originally Posted by Katiana

However, Boston's metro continued to grow. Since 1980, there have only been 4 years of negative growth in the Boston MSA.

Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA Population and Components of Change -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home

Pittsburgh has had 26 years of negative growth in that period, all but 3 years in the early 90s.

Pittsburgh, PA MSA Population and Components of Change -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home

Every city has its own unique situation.

That's interesting. Unfortunately the immigration is not net. But native Pittsburgh seems to be gradually "dying off" as deaths exceed births. Boston, by comparison, is a baby mill. And until recently there was a lot of domestic migration out of the Boston area but it is reversing. And Pittsburgh seems to be showing a similar trend.

[globalburgh]

Concerning the Boston-to-Pittsburgh comparison, some recent data on the domestic migration of 25-34 age cohort:

Migration to metro areas - The Washington Post

From 2008-2010, Pittsburgh was 15th best in net migration of the 25-34 age group with +2,008. Boston ranks 26th with +592. What's interesting is the change from 2005-2007. Pittsburgh is +6,768. That means Pittsburgh experienced substantial outmigration from 2005-2007. Boston is +8,793. In other words, Boston was bleeding many more young adults than Pittsburgh.

Brain drain has been a big concern in Boston for quite a few years. Looking at the educational attainment rate data for the same cohort (25-34), I don't think Pittsburgh becoming Boston-like is such a stretch. Pittsburgh is already Boston, just on a smaller scale.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Katiana

Since 1980, there have only been 4 years of negative growth in the Boston MSA. . . . Pittsburgh has had 26 years of negative growth in that period.

Right, the steel bust sent Pittsburgh off on a very different path from Boston starting circa 1980.

My point is there is evidence that both the City and the Metro are finally getting back to where cities/metros like Boston were in 1980.

Every city has its own unique situation.

Yes and no. Obviously things vary, but most well-established American cities lost population for a while after 1950 or so, and many of those started gaining population back in the 80s or 90s or 00s. And the cities that went through that process have typically faced certain problems in common, including rapidly rising housing prices in core areas.

I think there are clearly lessons to be learned from that--not a detailed set of instructions, but at the minimum a set of issues we should be preparing for.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by MathmanMathman

They seem to suggest that Pittsburgh tends to hold in population during a recession although Pittsburgh seems to be attracting some this time as Pittsburgh's job market is a bit better. The movement seems to be from Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, Columbus, and Western Pa in general. Past population exchanges were primarily from NYC, DC, and Philly.

They also said that Allegheny County continues to shrink with the surrounding counties picking up population. But I keep hearing news about the death of the outer suburbs in America. I guess its mostly spin and wishful thinking by Smart Growth advocates.

I may be wrong, but I think that the negative growth is only to the surrounding counties while Allegheny County has positive migration from other counties outside of the region.

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

I may be wrong, but I think that the negative growth is only to the surrounding counties while Allegheny County has positive migration from other counties outside of the region.

Pretty much the sam picture as the MSA:

Allegheny County, PA Population and Components of Change -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home