Several Indicators Reveal Pittsburgh Falling Behind Economically (Washington, Butler: 2013, home)

[gladhands]

Originally Posted by stburr91

Eight years after the recession hit, and there is still no real recovery for the average American.

How long until people begin to realize that this is the new normal?

If you think things don't look good now, wait until the TPP is passed.

What are things going to look like in 10-20 years?

We're already seeing people hunkered down in the city say, F**K those people outside the city, I don't care about them.

The new reality that people need to embrace is that there is no reason for many of these small towns to exist. Population grew in those locations because of mines and mills that no longer exist. They served their purpose, and now it's time to move on. America is sprawling and largely empty. We should not be focused on sustaining an unsustainable way of life. People need to consolidate in population and employment centers. It's not f*ck those people, but rather f*ck those towns.

[szug-bot]

Originally Posted by MountainDewGuy

I would say that the minor housing bubble applies to specific areas of the city. Those locations that were deemed hip and cool have reached their peak price points. There are plenty of people with average incomes who don't want to pay $300k+ for a small home or condo in Lville or elsewhere in the 'hipper' parts of the East End. They are buying homes in other neighborhoods where the cost is still reasonable, and I think the values of homes in those other areas are good buys, like homes in Lawrenceville 10 years ago.

I think you'd be surprised. There is still a stock of relatively reasonable homes up Butler (like, past Stanton Avenue), and off of Stanton Avenue itself, like Carnegie Street, etc. (although that is technically Stanton Heights according to the City neighborhood maps). In the latter, the houses don't look too bad - there are some brick structures among them.

I forget what street I stumbled upon (not Fisk, but I think it intersects Fisk) where there were four beautiful looking brick facades on renovated townhomes. Certainly THESE are an example of what you stated, MDGuy - I bet they would command $195k, at a minimum.

[eschaton]

I understand the "screw the metro, the core is all that counts" argument.

Pittsburgh is an unusual metro area because the late 19th and especially early 20th century industrialization was very decentralized, resulting in a large portion of the industry of the region being located outside of the core city. This dynamic wasn't really seen anywhere else in the U.S. but New England. This meant that we were very different from many other cities - inside and outside of the Rust Belt - which in 1950 were essentially surrounded by nothing but sparsely populated farmland and a few "market towns" - we only had that dynamic dominant in Butler County.

Although the region went through a spectacular jobs collapse in the 1980s, the city itself did not. Yes, the City lost large mills in Lawrenceville, South Side, and Hazelwood. But the number of jobs Downtown has been stable at around 100,000 since 1950. And the number of jobs in Greater Oakland has continued to rise steadily. As a result the City of Pittsburgh continued to be a jobs center even before the "back to the city" movement became fashionable.

The outlying areas however - inside Allegheny County and especially in the outer counties - have continued to decline, because there is no real replacement for what was lost. Quite honestly, the decline in the outlying counties is essentially identical to the decline all over rural Western and Central Pennsylvania (excluding State College, which is doing well due to Penn State). With industrial production gone, the very reason for the existence of many of these boroughs has totally vanished. There is still some construction of new houses in these areas, but this is entirely driven by the proportion of people who are doing well enough to afford a newer, more suburban home, yet need to stay in the area for job purposes.

I cannot think of any comprehensive solutions for these areas, because the "sickness" isn't unique to Pittsburgh - it's been happening all across small-town America for decades. I suppose if we're really lucky, and Pittsburgh becomes the next Portland 25 years from now, exurban demand might rise enough to bring a lot of these areas back, in exactly the same way that many of the old urban boroughs outside of Philadelphia have become cute little gentrified enclaves within suburbia. But I wouldn't bet on it. And there's certainly nothing that Pittsburgh - as a city - can do to help save the MSA as a whole.

[JoeP]

The outlying areas however - inside Allegheny County and especially in the outer counties - have continued to decline, because there is no real replacement for what was lost. Quite honestly, the decline in the outlying counties is essentially identical to the decline all over rural Western and Central Pennsylvania (excluding State College, which is doing well due to Penn State). With industrial production gone, the very reason for the existence of many of these boroughs has totally vanished. There is still some construction of new houses in these areas, but this is entirely driven by the proportion of people who are doing well enough to afford a newer, more suburban home, yet need to stay in the area for job purposes.

Exactly, perhaps if the core had stronger job growth, you might see more population growth in the outer counties, but at the same time, I don't see much reason for someone to make an awkward and long drive from Fayette county. closer in areas of Armstrong, maybe but it's still a stretch.

[gladhands]

Originally Posted by JoeP

Exactly, perhaps if the core had stronger job growth, you might see more population growth in the outer counties, but at the same time, I don't see much reason for someone to make an awkward and long drive from Fayette county. closer in areas of Armstrong, maybe but it's still a stretch.

Even if the core had stronger job growth, it wouldn't be in the fields that residents of the outlying areas are qualified to work in. If Pittsburgh had a massive jobs boom, population growth would be limited to Allegheny county and the innermost fringes of Butler, Washington and Westmoreland counties.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by JoeP

Exactly, perhaps if the core had stronger job growth, you might see more population growth in the outer counties, but at the same time, I don't see much reason for someone to make an awkward and long drive from Fayette county. closer in areas of Armstrong, maybe but it's still a stretch.

Yeah. Even though Pittsburgh has true exurban growth in Butler and Washington Counties, there's still greenfield development happening in Allegheny County in the North Hills and especially towards the airport. Areas like Findlay Township and North Fayette are still mostly undeveloped - as is northeastern Allegheny County in the rural areas near Route 28. I don't expect rural areas along the Mon like Elizabeth Township and Forward to ever be built out. Regardless, we're probably at least two decades away from the "growth envelope" completely exiting the county.

[Goinback2011]

Originally Posted by gladhands

The new reality that people need to embrace is that there is no reason for many of these small towns to exist. Population grew in those locations because of mines and mills that no longer exist. They served their purpose, and now it's time to move on. America is sprawling and largely empty. We should not be focused on sustaining an unsustainable way of life. People need to consolidate in population and employment centers. It's not f*ck those people, but rather f*ck those towns.

Especially true of Braddock.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Goinback2011

Especially true of Braddock.

Ironically enough no. Braddock's mill is still open, even if it only employs a few hundred now - none of which likely live in Braddock or North Braddock.

[Goinback2011]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Ironically enough no. Braddock's mill is still open, even if it only employs a few hundred now - none of which likely live in Braddock or North Braddock.

The area should be allowed to return to nature.

[trackstar13]

Originally Posted by gladhands

Even if the core had stronger job growth, it wouldn't be in the fields that residents of the outlying areas are qualified to work in. If Pittsburgh had a massive jobs boom, population growth would be limited to Allegheny county and the innermost fringes of Butler, Washington and Westmoreland counties.

Too many generalizations for my taste