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The ACTUAL Medicare cost in 2008 was $386 billion, not $599 billion. The actual number of people eligible for Medicare is closer to 36 million, not 45 million.
Those were the figures I found....
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Medicare spending is growing steadily in both absolute terms and as a percentage of the federal budget. Total Medicare spending reached $440 billion for fiscal year 2007 or 16% of all federal spending and grew to $599 billion in 2008 which was 20% of federal spending.
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In 2008, Medicare provided health care coverage for 45 million Americans,[9] making it the largest single health care payer in the nation
The next hint about your "figuring" was when you arbitrarily cut the cost of health care in half to "adjust" for the difference in health care expenditures between the young and the old without determining the distribution of medical cost by age group and the distribution of population by age group.
We call that a WAG...
But it was generous I think to halve the costs.
What do you think is more likely?
Remember,none of this really matters,no-one cares what we think.
The next hint about your "figuring" was when you arbitrarily cut the cost of health care in half to "adjust" for the difference in health care expenditures between the young and the old without determining the distribution of medical cost by age group and the distribution of population by age group.
I've been looking around for that number myself. And I may have found it.
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The elderly (age 65 and over) made up around 13 percent of the U.S. population in 2002, but they consumed 36 percent of total U.S. personal health care expenses. The average health care expense in 2002 was $11,089 per year for elderly people but only $3,352 per year for working-age people (ages 19-64)
Ref. source: Keehan SP, Lazenby HC, Zezza MA, et al. Age Estimates in the National Health Accounts. Health Care Financing Review 2004 Dec. 2; 1(1); Web Exclusive.
The cost you arrived at to cover everyone is equal to what is currently being paid into the system from private and public sources, so why would more pay-ins be needed?
No,the figure I arrived at was 300 million people(population roughly of the USA) paying $7500 per person per year.
But then those that cannot pay now and have no health care wouldn't suddenly have $7500 to spare would they?
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Do we know that "half" is a reasonable number, when every other country gets a bigger cut that 50%?
It sounds good,seems quite generous really.
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Not quite. However, the assumption that unhealthy people are more expensive in terms of health care is not necessarily correct.
If that is the case,then we should increase the cost estimate to closer what is spent now on medicare recipients shouldn't we?
Did you note that the $599 million was cited from a dubious source?
The 45 Million you counted included 7.5 million disabled and 37 million retirees over 65. I didn't consider the disabled when I cited 36 million.
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We call that a WAG...
But it was generous I think to halve the costs.
What do you think is more likely?
I think just what I stated - that you need to account for the distribution of medical costs across age groups and cross-reference by the distribution of population across age groups.
Anything else is just pulling numbers out of a dark and stinky place.
The GIGO principle can't be ignored.
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Remember,none of this really matters,no-one cares what we think.
I've been looking around for that number myself. And I may have found it.
Ref. source: Keehan SP, Lazenby HC, Zezza MA, et al. Age Estimates in the National Health Accounts. Health Care Financing Review 2004 Dec. 2; 1(1); Web Exclusive.
So who has a calculator handy?
Okay!!!
So...
38.7 million over 65.
73 million under 18.
Roughly 188 million 19-64.
$429,000,000,000 for the oldies.
$630,176,000,000 for the 19-64.
How much for chilluns?
Well according to grimreader,"the assumption that unhealthy people are more expensive in terms of health care is not necessarily correct"...
True. The assumption that older people are more expensive, however, are correct. The important point here is that...
unhealthy people much more rarely become old people!
Basically, while a smokers lung cancer may be expensive for a year, and the fat guys heart attack, and the stroke, they are often short-term expenses.
A healthy guy who takes care of himself and lives till 85 will propably cost a lot more in health care than the fat fellow who pays taxes for 20 yeaers and then drops from a heart attack.
(Saving pension benefits too. Cold-hearted but true.)
Did you note that the $599 million was cited from a dubious source?
Blame google...
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The 45 Million you counted included 7.5 million disabled and 37 million retirees over 65. I didn't consider the disabled when I cited 36 million.
All of those are on medicare correct?
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I think just what I stated - that you need to account for the distribution of medical costs across age groups and cross-reference by the distribution of population across age groups.
see above.
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Anything else is just pulling numbers out of a dark and stinky place.
Sometimes the numbers DO need pulling out of there.
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The GIGO principle can't be ignored.
Again,nothing written on this entire forum matters.
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Then why continue the dialog?
Passes the time,surely you don't think anyone pays ANY attention to the crap written here?
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