Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Foreclosures, That is a really big word. Take that word at its true value and the economy is contracting badly. GDP strongly negative. The banks are lying about how bad the right offs are. 100% loss on the bad loans. more than 100% loss in some places. Take this into account and we have negative economic growth.
I'm not sure if the write-downs impact GDP - they represent a loss of capital, not a decrease in economic activity - similar to stock market losses.
But they definitely dampen construction activity, and their effect on prices can be a drag on consumer confidence and spending.
Still even with a downward revision it still not going to be a bad number.
The rumors of death of the American economy have been greatly exaggerated.
And my glass is looking 1/2 full at this point. The other 1/2 will be filled when jobs will start returning. Which I believe will be sooner rather than later. But we will see.
Well, 3.2% is a good number, but not quite strong enough to reduce unemployment by a large degree. That rate will give us about 100-150k jobs per month, but we need twice that amount to reduce unemployment. At 3% it would take years to return to pre-recession job levels, and even longer before we can achieve full employment again..
For reference, 2010 ended up with 2.9% overall, which was just shy of the aforementioned 3% threshold. Unemployment basically remained unchanged, and actually rose through November.
Friday morning, we get the first estimate for GDP growth in the 4th quarter of last year. Economist consensus is 3.5%, but Wall Street is expecting a much larger figure. In 2009, the 4th quarter posted 5.0% on refilled inventories, but it was not sustained.
A poll will be included, so vote for where you think it will be, then post a more specific figure here and an explanation (if you wish). Whoever is closest when the report comes out Friday morning gets a free rep point.
For reference, here are the other 3 quarters for 2010:
1Q 3.7%
2Q 1.7%
3Q 2.6%
Some other figures;
Post-WWII average: 2.99%
Average during healthy economy: 3.33%
4Q average for past 30 years: 2.91%
It all depends on how much borrowed money the federal government spends. They need to exclude any spending by government, including federal subsides etc...
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,510,291 times
Reputation: 1721
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie117
Well, 3.2% is a good number, but not quite strong enough to reduce unemployment by a large degree. That rate will give us about 100-150k jobs per month, but we need twice that amount to reduce unemployment. At 3% it would take years to return to pre-recession job levels, and even longer before we can achieve full employment again..
For reference, 2010 ended up with 2.9% overall, which was just shy of the aforementioned 3% threshold. Unemployment basically remained unchanged, and actually rose through November.
I never said that this number was a sign that unemployment was going to drop significantly or even slightly. What I was saying was that this overall is a positive sign that things are improving. And I was saying that I'm looking at this number with a glass 1/2 full view instead of the doom and gloom I see everywhere out in the world. And meant that the other 1/2 of my class would be filled (glass is full) once employment started to signfigantly come down.
Actually to be honest the number is actually important to employment for the reason that it will start to create confidence that "crash" is definitely over and that recovery has traction. This confidence will allow businesses to hire that need people to cover demands (the employees productivity is tapped out at this point) but were tepid because they weren't sure if this recovery was real. Granted are we seeing the begin of a v-shape recovery and that we will soon see employment will be at 6%.......aaaahhhhh.... I would say.....NO FOOKING WAY.......but again it a step in the right direction.
...because they weren't sure if this recovery was real. Granted are we seeing the begin of a v-shape recovery and that we will soon see employment will be at 6%.......aaaahhhhh.... I would say.....NO FOOKING WAY.......but again it a step in the right direction.
Employment at 6%. Unemployment at 94%. V-shaped recovery? I don't think so. The Baltic dry is headed sharply down. There could be a number of reasons for this but a contracting world economy is the biggest that comes to mind.
Is there a break down of the GDP and contribution from all parts of the equation?
Given that the expenditure model is:
GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)
and in the article, their using the expenditure approach (consumer spending) rather than the income or product approach.
Quote:
The U.S. economy accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2010 as consumer spending climbed by the most in more than four years
Does Government Spending account for the money injected via Quantitative Easing as well as the zero rate money, banks are getting from the Federal Reserve?
Quote:
GDP is widely used by economists to gauge the health of an economy, as its variations are relatively quickly identified. However, its value as an indicator for the standard of living is considered to be limited. Not only that, but if the aim of economic activity is to produce ecologically sustainable increases in the overall human standard of living, GDP is a perverse measurement; it treats loss of ecosystem services as a benefit instead of a cost.
I can't find the latest GPI figures.
Quote:
The genuine progress indicator (GPI) is an alternative metric system which is an addition to the national system of accounts that has been suggested to replace, or supplement, gross domestic product (GDP) as a metric of economic growth. The GPI is used in green economics, sustainability, ecological economics, and more inclusive types of economics commonly known as "welfare" economics.[citation needed] GPI is an attempt to measure whether a country's growth, increased production of goods, and expanding services have actually resulted in the improvement of the welfare (or well-being) of the people in the country. GPI advocates claim that it can more reliably measure economic progress, as it distinguishes between worthwhile growth and uneconomic growth.
The GDP vs the GPI is analogous to the difference between the gross profit of a company and the net profit; the Net Profit is the Gross Profit minus the costs incurred. Accordingly, the GPI will be zero if the financial costs of crime and pollution equal the financial gains in production of goods and services, all other factors being constant.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,510,291 times
Reputation: 1721
Quote:
Originally Posted by newonecoming2
Employment at 6%. Unemployment at 94%. V-shaped recovery? I don't think so. The Baltic dry is headed sharply down. There could be a number of reasons for this but a contracting world economy is the biggest that comes to mind.
Not sure if you understood me. I was positive on todays number but was not saying there was going to be a V-shaped recovery or a tremendous reduction in unemployment. Please reread my post.
Last edited by baystater; 01-28-2011 at 01:40 PM..
Is there a break down of the GDP and contribution from all parts of the equation?
Given that the expenditure model is:
GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)
and in the article, their using the expenditure approach (consumer spending) rather than the income or product approach.
Does Government Spending account for the money injected via Quantitative Easing as well as the zero rate money, banks are getting from the Federal Reserve?
I can't find the latest GPI figures.
Maybe because our income and product aren't up ?
Fuzzy math can make any figures good if you massage them enough.
"Oh look..this number is positive so let's use that".
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
V-shaped recovery? I don't think so. The Baltic dry is headed sharply down. There could be a number of reasons for this but a contracting world economy is the biggest that comes to mind.
Not sure if you understood me. I was positive on todays number but was not saying there was going to be a V-shaped recovery or a tremendous reduction in unemployment. Please reread my post.
