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I just don't see "democracy" (as we know it) taking a foothold in the Middle East. It really isn't in their cultural fabric. Islam means "submission" it doesn't mean "let's take a vote" and decide.
People over there are tired of being poor and oppressed. Well, it isn't just the despots keeping them down. They need to contemplate separation of state and mosque to really move forward. They need to grow up and mature also. It's a tall order.
They can look to Iran and Saudi Arabia and figure out that theocracies are bad news, but I don't know if they will. They need to abandon their childish fixation with Israel, their support of terrorism, etc.
I mean, Israel can disappear from the map right now and they would still be miserable and poor. For decades now, their governments have been pointing the finger at Israel, and the West for their issues. They've also used their religion to keep the masses distracted while plundering their countries.
Are they going to wake up and smell the proverbial coffee? I wish they would, but I doubt it.
One can just as easily say, what is our fixation with the Middle East? After all is it not the United States who invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, has a 4000 man CIA army in Pakistan and has expanded to include drone attacks in Yemen?
Lord knows the Muslim world's more fundamentalist types are holding the entire region back in the Middle Ages, while more progressive nations like Dubai, Turkey, and even Iran to a lesser extent are moving forward. Our very presence is what helps fuel this "anti-west" attitude and keeps life breathing in the religious whack jobs. They may hate each other, but they hate a foreign invader more, as would anyone.
Yes, Israel is a scape goat and it is used as a means to place blame, which goes to my previous point about the anti-west attitudes. Doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, the perception is that the US and Israel are to blame for their troubles as opposed to their own serious flawed issues they have failed to address. However this doesn't excuse the fact that we do in fact contribute to many of the problems of the Middle East, we just aren't the only reason as many would like to claim.
As far as democracy taking hold in the Middle East, there are already democracies in the Middle East, such as Lebanon, Iran, Palestine, Turkey and allegedly Iraq and Afghanistan. Are they western quality democracies in a model we approve of, probably not, but we don't hold the rest of the world to our democratic standards, why do we insist the Middle East does?
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Originally Posted by ovcatto
Hill, I think that you may be stuck in a neo-con time warp. If anything, at least from I'm reading from a number of sources, this administration has taken a rather hands off approach to the what is being described as the "The Jasmine Revolution". Unlike the fall of the Shah, the U.S. nor our allies have offered safe haven for deposed president Ben Ali, there has been no public vitriol as we have all witnessed in the past regarding the fall of the Lebanese government and just today Secretary Clinton backed off a giving unqualified support to Mubarak and the government. Quite frankly, observers like middle east expert Juan Cole seem to suggest that they U.S. may be tacitly supporting the democratic movements for the first time in decades.
But it is early.
Neoconservative time warp? Are you suggesting neoconservative views and positions have vanished? Are you suggesting that 100 years of US interventionist foreign policy has suddenly disappeared since I went to bed last night? I think not.
As you say, its early and there is a lot going on. In fact it is more than a lot it is huge what is taking place and whether we like to admit it or not, the United States is at the limits of its ability to project power abroad.
The hands off approach of the Jasmine revolution is hands off because our "assets" have reached in country yet, the plane is still in the air, but don't kid yourself, you are not so naive as to think the US isn't doing everything in its power to affect an outcome favorable to its own self interest.
The Obama administration denounced the events in Tunisia until it was shown that the coup was successful, to which it then reversed its position and embraced it. Yemen is happening as we speak, Egypt is happening as we speak and Tunisia and Lebanon are happening as we speak and the US can't be everywhere all at once, but we would be if we could.
I don't believe for one moment that the US has suddenly reversed its position on democracies in the Middle East, I do however believe that we are going to publicly embrace them since there isn't a damn thing we can do about it at the moment.
However there are also places like Palestine, where Hamas won open elections in 2006, but Hamas is not the kind of people the US would like to see lead the Palestinian people. So the US labels them a terrorist organization, openly supports Abbas and the Palestinian Authority
I guess when hamas stops sending suicide bombers to blow up innocents on buses, in restaurants we can call them something else. Or maybe when they recognize their neighbor instead of adopting a position of seeing them annihilated, that designation may change.
I would like nothing better than to see us out of the region, however we must make sure those governments don't fall into the wrong, radical, terrorist hands.
I don't see Lebanon falling into Hezbollah's hands as a good thing.
If these governments fail or are taken over by radical elements, you will indeed have a war.
I guess when hamas stops sending suicide bombers to blow up innocents on buses, in restaurants we can call them something else. Or maybe when they recognize their neighbor instead of adopting a position of seeing them annihilated, that designation may change.
I would like nothing better than to see us out of the region, however we must make sure those governments don't fall into the wrong, radical, terrorist hands.
I don't see Lebanon falling into Hezbollah's hands as a good thing.
If these governments fail or are taken over by radical elements, you will indeed have a war.
Proof of the attitude I speak of right here.
If the emerging democracies aren't "our" democracies favorable to "our" desires, then we delegitamize them, denounce them and wage war against them.
The method we use is to label anyone who doesn't play "our" game as terrorist, then we justify our actions accordingly.
All these fake crocodile tears over Middle Eastern nations behaving the way we want them to, while we turn a blind eye and openly support places like Uzbekistan that boiled alive dissidents who publicly supported democracy. In this case, we support a man who would crush democracy and boil human beings alive and not one complaint from anyone over these human rights abuses.
If the emerging democracies aren't "our" democracies favorable to "our" desires, then we delegitamize them, denounce them and wage war against them.
The method we use is to label anyone who doesn't play "our" game as terrorist, then we justify our actions accordingly.
All these fake crocodile tears over Middle Eastern nations behaving the way we want them to, while we turn a blind eye and openly support places like Uzbekistan that boiled alive dissidents who publicly supported democracy. In this case, we support a man who would crush democracy and boil human beings alive and not one complaint from anyone over these human rights abuses.
No, just the reality on the ground. If SA were to fall into the hands of radical haters of the West, how long to you think the other oil-rich countries would last? There is no getting around what would happen to the world's energy supply if that were to happen.
When Lebanon, Syria, Eqypt, Jordan and other nations that surround Israel, backed by Iran, decide it's now a good time to try and make good on their promise to annihilate Israel, do you think the US is just going to stand by and do nothing?
For years, decades, we have supported the lesser of evils when it comes to middle eastern nations, having to support oppressive, murderous regimes for the sake of protecting US vital interests (yes, oil IS a vital security interest for the US).
I'm all for these democracy protests and regime change, IF that means the radicals and terrorist don't get a hold and opening to do harm to the US and it's allies.
Just think how scary Pakistan would be for the US and the region if the government fell into radical hands with terrorist ties (although, some would say that is happening now), but we still have a government that is somewhat friendly to the US, although with elements that are clearly anti-US.
One can just as easily say, what is our fixation with the Middle East? After all is it not the United States who invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, has a 4000 man CIA army in Pakistan and has expanded to include drone attacks in Yemen?
Lord knows the Muslim world's more fundamentalist types are holding the entire region back in the Middle Ages, while more progressive nations like Dubai, Turkey, and even Iran to a lesser extent are moving forward. Our very presence is what helps fuel this "anti-west" attitude and keeps life breathing in the religious whack jobs. They may hate each other, but they hate a foreign invader more, as would anyone.
Yes, Israel is a scape goat and it is used as a means to place blame, which goes to my previous point about the anti-west attitudes. Doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, the perception is that the US and Israel are to blame for their troubles as opposed to their own serious flawed issues they have failed to address. However this doesn't excuse the fact that we do in fact contribute to many of the problems of the Middle East, we just aren't the only reason as many would like to claim.
As far as democracy taking hold in the Middle East, there are already democracies in the Middle East, such as Lebanon, Iran, Palestine, Turkey and allegedly Iraq and Afghanistan. Are they western quality democracies in a model we approve of, probably not, but we don't hold the rest of the world to our democratic standards, why do we insist the Middle East does?
Neoconservative time warp? Are you suggesting neoconservative views and positions have vanished? Are you suggesting that 100 years of US interventionist foreign policy has suddenly disappeared since I went to bed last night? I think not.
As you say, its early and there is a lot going on. In fact it is more than a lot it is huge what is taking place and whether we like to admit it or not, the United States is at the limits of its ability to project power abroad.
The hands off approach of the Jasmine revolution is hands off because our "assets" have reached in country yet, the plane is still in the air, but don't kid yourself, you are not so naive as to think the US isn't doing everything in its power to affect an outcome favorable to its own self interest.
The Obama administration denounced the events in Tunisia until it was shown that the coup was successful, to which it then reversed its position and embraced it. Yemen is happening as we speak, Egypt is happening as we speak and Tunisia and Lebanon are happening as we speak and the US can't be everywhere all at once, but we would be if we could.
I don't believe for one moment that the US has suddenly reversed its position on democracies in the Middle East, I do however believe that we are going to publicly embrace them since there isn't a damn thing we can do about it at the moment.
I don't consider Iran a democracy by any stretch of the imagination. Candidates have to be vetted by the mullahs and if you disagree with the mullahs, you don't get to run.
Our fixation with the Middle East is rooted in oil. If they had no oil, our government could care less.
What those countries need is a bunch of modern day Ataturks, but I don't know if there's any.
Things are unfolding as we speak and this "Jasmine Revolution" is spreading fast. We have no idea what's going to happen, so the best thing we can do is keep our mouths shut and try to work with whomever emerges. The last thing we need is to be blamed for whatever happens.
No, just the reality on the ground. If SA were to fall into the hands of radical haters of the West, how long to you think the other oil-rich countries would last? There is no getting around what would happen to the world's energy supply if that were to happen.
When Lebanon, Syria, Eqypt, Jordan and other nations that surround Israel, backed by Iran, decide it's now a good time to try and make good on their promise to annihilate Israel, do you think the US is just going to stand by and do nothing?
For years, decades, we have supported the lesser of evils when it comes to middle eastern nations, having to support oppressive, murderous regimes for the sake of protecting US vital interests (yes, oil IS a vital security interest for the US).
I'm all for these democracy protests and regime change, IF that means the radicals and terrorist don't get a hold and opening to do harm to the US and it's allies.
Just think how scary Pakistan would be for the US and the region if the government fell into radical hands with terrorist ties (although, some would say that is happening now), but we still have a government that is somewhat friendly to the US, although with elements that are clearly anti-US.
I see... How dare those filthy savage Aayrabs be born on top of our oil.
You are for democracy only "IF" it is a democracy you approve of, how damn flipping nice of you to grant the people of the world the freedom to accept your wishes.
As for Israel, those nations of people who are seen as their enemies didn't surround Israel, Israel formed a nation amidst a sea of hostiles, that is Israel's problem, not ours. My love is for America, not Israel; my loyalty is to the United States, even when I disagree with it, not Israel. I have no religious preconceptions or loyalties and Muslim, Christian and Jew all share in the same religious delusion of group supremacy at the expense of anyone not belonging to their respective club. Because one uses an F-22 or a drone to drop bombs on people as opposed to a vest full of C-4, I make no distinction between the ethical reasoning used in either case.
The "good guys" have killed more civilians than any other nation in the past decade, but they didn't mean to so its ok. The "bad guys" meant to kill a bunch of civilians but only managed to kill a tiny fraction of the number the good guys have, but they are evil. Since I don't believe in the childish constructs of good and evil, I am forced to look at things in terms of cause and effect, history, psychology, sociology, and cui bono.
In the case of the Middle East, I happen to agree with Ronald Reagan in that the United States has far more to lose intervening and playing cop to a bunch of fundamentalist nutjobs in some third world backwater willing to die at the drop of a hat for some 1000+ year old fairy tale. Its time for Israel to shut its pie hole and stand up for itself and act like the tough guy everyone claims it really is. There is not one single thing worth the life of one single American soldier to die for in that craphole known as the Middle East and I for one would love to swim in the sea of trillions of dollars we have wasted trying to impose our will and desire on them.
I don't consider Iran a democracy by any stretch of the imagination. Candidates have to be vetted by the mullahs and if you disagree with the mullahs, you don't get to run.
Our fixation with the Middle East is rooted in oil. If they had no oil, our government could care less.
What those countries need is a bunch of modern day Ataturks, but I don't know if there's any.
Things are unfolding as we speak and this "Jasmine Revolution" is spreading fast. We have no idea what's going to happen, so the best thing we can do is keep our mouths shut and try to work with whomever emerges. The last thing we need is to be blamed for whatever happens.
"If they had no oil, our government could care less". Exactly, and our people would care even less than the government caring less.
Iran's Mullahs have to have the candidates vetted in order to determine which are qualified to run. Sounds like the process the United States has with our press. Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich were not popular among the press, so thus were vetted with the same vigor as the likes of Clinton, McCain, Obama and Giuliani.
What is the actual difference between Iran and the United States when the general elections come down to a choice between A or B ?
I see... How dare those filthy savage Aayrabs be born on top of our oil.
You are for democracy only "IF" it is a democracy you approve of, how damn flipping nice of you to grant the people of the world the freedom to accept your wishes.
Oh my. The US is not the only nation that has an interest in seeing the world's energy reserves kept safe and accessible. Seeing as how they asked us to help protect them from the tyrants in the region (saddam), you can hardly blame the US and other nations for protecting a vital resource the whole world depends on.
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Its time for Israel to shut its pie hole and stand up for itself and act like the tough guy everyone claims it really is. There is not one single thing worth the life of one single American soldier to die for in that craphole known as the Middle East and I for one would love to swim in the sea of trillions of dollars we have wasted trying to impose our will and desire on them.
War it is then - and don't think Israel wouldn't use those nuclear weapons they have if their existence is threatened.
If any of these countries (under new radical leadership) decided they want to push Israel into the sea, the only deterrent would be the realization they would be fighting the US as well. Of course with obama, one can't be too sure he wouldn't just sit back and enjoy the show. I would fully expect him to waffle and weave.
Oh my. The US is not the only nation that has an interest in seeing the world's energy reserves kept safe and accessible. Seeing as how they asked us to help protect them from the tyrants in the region (saddam), you can hardly blame the US and other nations for protecting a vital resource the whole world depends on.
The United States supported that tyrant, Saddam and even helped him come to power in the first place. He was secular, he was friendly to our interests and he had no qualms about using US provided materials, intelligence and support to gas his own people or the Iranians because he knew he could count on the good ole United States to save his fat from the fire. That is until the ascension of Neoconservatism and his ego trip that led him into Kuwait, which was another best buddy of the United States and much closer to the House of Saud.
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War it is then - and don't think Israel wouldn't use those nuclear weapons they have if their existence is threatened.
If any of these countries (under new radical leadership) decided they want to push Israel into the sea, the only deterrent would be the realization they would be fighting the US as well. Of course with obama, one can't be too sure he wouldn't just sit back and enjoy the show. I would fully expect him to waffle and weave.
If Israel desires to use nukes, then so be it, let them deal with the fallout (no pun intended) of doing such a thing. Its their country, their self interest, their business.
As far as Obama is concerned, what more could folks on the right want, you have a leftist pro-war President that crushed the anti-war movement and has escalated US military presence in the Middle East by double of what Bush did. If Caligula runs, I'll be sure to put you on the mailing list.
Egypt..internet is down and they have deployed their elite counter-terrorism forces against their own people to quell the riots.
Corrupt government, high food prices, high unemployment and rampant poverty.
Sound familar ??
PAY ATTENTION FOLKS...the dominoes are falling.
Egypt: Internet down, police counterterror unit up - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110128/ap_on_bi_ge/ml_egypt_protest - broken link)
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