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Old 04-17-2012, 02:58 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,975 posts, read 16,466,589 times
Reputation: 4586

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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWhopper View Post
Another poll out today has Romney almost tied with Obama. Looks like he's getting a bump now that the primart season is essentially over.

Romney gaining on Obama: Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters
From the link...

Quote:
In what could be a problem for Obama in the November 6 election, 53 percent of registered voters said jobs and the economy were the most important issue in the presidential election campaign, and slightly more - 45 percent - rated Romney higher in that area than the 43 percent who favored Obama.
That's excellent.

Furthermore, they seem to have oversampled Democrats.

The sample in this Reuters/Ipsos poll was ~26% Republicans, ~34% Democrats, and ~34% independents.

According to Gallup, in 2011, 27% of Americans identified as Republicans, 40% as Independents, and 31% as Democrats:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/151943/re...ependents.aspx

And, as I mentioned in an earlier post, the Gallup daily tracking poll (the poll that this thread is about) now has Romney leading Obama by 5 points!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 04-17-2012 at 03:11 PM..
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Old 04-17-2012, 03:23 PM
 
Location: San Antonio
2,953 posts, read 5,297,048 times
Reputation: 1731
Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
From the link...



That's excellent.

Furthermore, they seem to have oversampled Democrats.

The sample in this Reuters/Ipsos poll was ~26% Republicans, ~34% Democrats, and ~34% independents.

According to Gallup, in 2011, 27% of Americans identified as Republicans, 40% as Independents, and 31% as Democrats:

Record-High 40% of Americans Identify as Independents in '11

And, as I mentioned in an earlier post, the Gallup daily tracking poll (the poll that this thread is about) now has Romney leading Obama by 5 points!

Gallup Presidential Election Trial Heat Results: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
I saw the Democratic percentage, too! I know, I know, its early in the election and "polls" don't matter. But if Romney just keeps being Mr. Steady as was for most of the primary, and Obama just keeps "Calling on Congress to lead" instead of showing any leadership himself, I think things go well for Romney.
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Old 04-17-2012, 03:30 PM
 
Location: St. Louis
7,444 posts, read 7,019,847 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KUchief25 View Post
Keep it up democrats. The silent majority see's the nonsense your spreading and it aint gonna fly.

Gallup Presidential Election Trial Heat Results: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
Although polls will fluctuate, this definately shows the incumbant is very vunerable.

Even this poll which still shows Obama winning but with an evaporating lead underscores his problem:

Romney gaining on Obama: Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters

"In what could be a problem for Obama in the November 6 election, 53 percent of registered voters said jobs and the economy were the most important issue in the presidential election campaign..."

Despite all the misdirection on contraceptives, fairness, Ann Romney, etc., jobs and the economy are still most important and Obama's performance falls flat.
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Old 04-17-2012, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Sango, TN
24,868 posts, read 24,396,474 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KUchief25 View Post
Keep it up democrats. The silent majority see's the nonsense your spreading and it aint gonna fly.

Gallup Presidential Election Trial Heat Results: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
This is a national poll.

First of all, and I told liberals this also, polls this early are MEANINGLESS.

Secondly, national polls don't mean a damn thing, its whats happening in swing states, and right now Obama is clearly ahead in many of them.

It won't be enough for Romney to win the McCain states, he is going to have to close on two or three other states that Obama won in 2008, and that is a tall order.

Remember, very few incumbents are ever beaten.

The last two to do that were Reagan and Clinton, both dynamic figures and with high personal positives, running against very run of the mill Presidents.

Here we have the opposite effect. A very run of the mill challenger, and a very dynamic incumbent. Does not play well with our history, but things can change.

The best anyone can tell you at this point is, I don't know.
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Old 04-17-2012, 03:38 PM
 
2,472 posts, read 3,198,960 times
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Ok.
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Old 04-17-2012, 03:52 PM
 
Location: Holly Springs, NC USA
3,457 posts, read 4,654,717 times
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The other ironic piece of this is that Romney has even started his campaign AGAINST Obama and for the Presidency. I know Obama has a $325 million war chest to work with but he also has an abysmal record as President tatooed on his forehead.

When Romney starts campaigning against the walking teleprompter, I have a feeling that this margin will be even higher for Mitt. ANd that is good news for this country!!!
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Old 04-17-2012, 03:54 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,171,305 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carterstamp View Post
RCP seems to think differently:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Hmmmm....Obama +3 in the RCP average.


You do understand that is an "average" of all of the polls during a certain time frams, right?
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Old 04-17-2012, 03:57 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 1,088,847 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
You do understand that is an "average" of all of the polls during a certain time frams, right?
Yes, and Obama's average margin has been rapidly shrinking
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Old 04-17-2012, 03:58 PM
Sco
 
4,259 posts, read 4,920,358 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHouse9 View Post
The other ironic piece of this is that Romney has even started his campaign AGAINST Obama and for the Presidency. I know Obama has a $325 million war chest to work with but he also has an abysmal record as President tatooed on his forehead.

When Romney starts campaigning against the walking teleprompter, I have a feeling that this margin will be even higher for Mitt. ANd that is good news for this country!!!
I think it will actually be the opposite. Right now, Romney is basically a generic Republican in the eyes of most voters. Once the campaign gets into full swing and people learn more about him through attack ads, debates and speeches, Romney's numbers will fall. The more Romney talks, the less people like him.
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Old 04-17-2012, 04:16 PM
 
Location: Holly Springs, NC USA
3,457 posts, read 4,654,717 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sco View Post
I think it will actually be the opposite. Right now, Romney is basically a generic Republican in the eyes of most voters. Once the campaign gets into full swing and people learn more about him through attack ads, debates and speeches, Romney's numbers will fall. The more Romney talks, the less people like him.
I beg to differ - once people see that he is the anti-Obama - the numbers will rise dramatically. Romney has so much more presence than the teleprompter. Since Obama clearly cannot relate to the people, Romeny has the edge there too although. The attacks on his wife will just make him stronger.

Think about is, a generic Republican is more liked than Obama. Meaning any old body running against the Celebrity-In-Chief is better than the Celebrity-In-Chief. Get someone in there with positions that people can relate to and who can show the ineptness of Obama and the polls will soar in his favor.
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