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Most if not all of this polling was pre-debate. I heard Michael Barone say today that Gallup tends to be volatile when the switch from registered to likely voters, because of the way that they define 'likely voter.' So take this number with a grain of salt. Anyway I figure that Romney is up by a point or two or three, and we're in the early stage of an exciting sprint finish. I see Mitt Romney as Tirunesh Dibaba.
I'll bet a lot of people were pissed that got woke up to get polled last night after the debate.
That's the only way they could have it out today. Didn't happen. But the statement that it did is worthy of a Romney debate lie.
I heard a young mother of 4 today talking about those Gallup people calling her about 9:45 to invite her to take part in the debate last night. She went through all kinds of checking up on her etc and was picked by them to take part. Of course, she wasn't happy that her question didn't get asked but seemed to have been very happy to take part. She was one of those people who still say they aren't decided who gets their votes and she still isn't. I thought that was pretty late to be calling over a week before the debate.
David Letterman had a sour constipated expression on his face and was in a cranky anti Romney mood tonite. Maybe hiring Obama as a sidekick might cheer him up.
Polls aren't real reliable if you didn't guess yet... btw... gallup has a posted error rate of 3-4% which means it can be 47 romney - 49 Obama or did you want to omit that?
10/10 through 10/16 Um, today is 10/17, the day after the debate. Thats a poll before it, and a lot of people have discounted the Gallup poll because many expected large swings in the polls for Romney in Florida and other states. Gallup is an outlier on Ohio right now.
But as I've always said, polls, don't mean squat on 11/6, you have to look at all of them, throw out the highest, and throw out the lowest, look for the ones in the middle, usually thats kind of where the truth is.
But I do find it funny that you're saying this is the day after the debate, we won't see a debate shift, if there is one, until probably early next week, Friday at the earliest.
That was way too intelligent and balanced of a post for this forum.
Besides, I don't ever give a crud about the overall %'s....show me what FL, OH etc. are looking like. Who cares if Obama or Romney picked up votes in Texas or California etc.
That was way too intelligent and balanced of a post for this forum.
Besides, I don't ever give a crud about the overall %'s....show me what FL, OH etc. are looking like. Who cares if Obama or Romney picked up votes in Texas or California etc.
I don't even like it when Gallup lumped all statistics together for the 12 battleground states. Its a very different demographic in Iowa then in Florida. You've got to look at state by state numbers.
If Romney is up 4 or 5 percent on election day, statistically it will be near impossible for Obama to win the electoral college, just based on the distribution of the voters across all states.
I fully expect the Bradley effect to take out about 5% of the voters. A lot of people are paranoid about losing their jobs in this economy and the politically correct atmosphere may compel them to state to pollsters that they support a black man. I think it was there in 2008 also but the reverse Bradley effect as a one-time thing was also in effect.
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