Bill Gates: Yes, robots really are about to take your jobs (death, solution)

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by Michigantown

Maybe people will finally realize that technology advancements were never for people to become rich. It was to improve the life on longevity of the human race.

I wish that were true. It's not.

[Michigantown]

Originally Posted by Bideshi

I wish that were true. It's not.

Why was the first stone tool made?

[saintmj nyc]

Originally Posted by Gungnir

Well on two of those they already kind of do. Drawing cartoons, hello, Pixar, sure the initial models are created by an artist, but the rest is all software. Closing sales? Some of the best currency traders are entirely automated, they're making sales at incredible rates based on their parameter sets.


Stupid cartoons , sure , but can a robot ever be a Michelangelo or a Leonardo da vinci ?


Except in the coming scenario technology replaces human endeavor, which is significantly different to leveraging.



I already have, I had Intralase Wavefront Lasik, other than putting the retainers on the whole process was automated. Speaking of which my pain meds when I had my appendix out in 1999 were automated too (with the "more" button). I'd certainly trust a machine to do open heart surgery on me if the machine was approved. The machine cannot get distracted by things outside of its function, it doesn't suffer hang-overs, doesn't take anti-anxiety or anti-depressants drugs, can monitor everything at the same time, if it's using imaging it knows ahead of time what my specific anatomy is. Why would I not trust that? Because it's not breathing? I trust a bunch of servers to keep track of my money, and where if a surgical machine messes up I don't need to worry about it, if those servers mess up I'm only going to wish I was dead, not actually be dead.

^^^^^ this ^^^^

Careful what you wish for . There have been people who have been operated on by machines who have suffered severe bruising and other complications caused by an inability of the surgical machine TO FEEL .

There have been instances where the hospital has been sued . I'll try and find the links if you want .

A human touch , IMHO is much more reliable and trusted than any hunk of plastic / metal programed to cut me open !
I am speaking as someone who has had several operations .
Who would be accountable if the machine were to malfunction and start slicing maybe the operating ( human ) staff Or fuse / remove / cut vital organs / veins / arteries , etc. ?

NO THANKS

[Gungnir]

Originally Posted by saintmj nyc

^^^^^ this ^^^^

Careful what you wish for . There have been people who have been operated on by machines who have suffered severe bruising and other complications caused by an inability of the surgical machine TO FEEL .

There have been instances where the hospital has been sued . I'll try and find the links if you want .

A human touch , IMHO is much more reliable and trusted than any hunk of plastic / metal programed to cut me open !
I am speaking as someone who has had several operations .
Who would be accountable if the machine were to malfunction and start slicing maybe the operating ( human ) staff Or fuse / remove / cut vital organs / veins / arteries , etc. ?

NO THANKS

And there have been people who have suffered death, brain damage, and unrequired surgeries because the surgeon was distracted, incompetent, hung over, or stoned.

Who said anything about cutting you open?

The whole reason most surgeries require you to be cut open is a limitation of the surgeon, not the surgery itself. Endoscopes are being used to work around this limitation, but they eliminate most of the benefits your espousing, how can the surgeon feel when he's separated from the item he's working on by a 18" rigid cannula?

However in many cases (transplants excepted) then using a small machine to perform the surgery would result in smaller incisions which is one big problem people have from surgery, if for instance you could have a 1" incision for what today is open heart surgery, without breaking ribs, wouldn't that be better? It would be physically impossible for a human to perform this with any degree of safety, but a robot, sure why not?

Ultimately even transplants only need incisions that enable the replacement organ to be inserted into the body without damage, the old organ could easily be tied off, excised and made into meat paste in situ, and the paste sucked out.

Suing, and accountability, well who's currently accountable for a respirator? If you're in hospital and the respirator is keeping you alive, and that respirator for whatever reason fails to do so, who is at fault? Ultimately the hospital, so how would that change?

[adiosToreador]

Originally Posted by thecoalman

For the time being there will certainly be an increase in employment in the robotic field but those jobs can and will be taken by robots.

In which you would still need humans to perform maintenance on them.

[greywar]

Originally Posted by Michigantown

Why was the first stone tool made?

Probably a rock on a stick. Used to shorten peoples lives.

[greywar]

Originally Posted by Michigantown

Walmart

I love this epically wrong response. Where will all those laid off people go...."Walmart". "uhmmm...dude we just got laid off from Walmart...."

People just dont get it. When Automation can do everything you do in every way BETTER.....theres no new jobs.

The bottom 10% of our society is viewed as unemployable. The mentally challenged, and damaged. We dont even count them for unemployment. Thats automation. Used to be SOMETHING would be found for them. "Go pull weeds" if nothing else.

then came automation in the 1900's. Suddenly those 10%...not so useful. We pass social security and other things to help them eventually. And all is well.

But automations going to make those walmart workers useless. And they're going to be the new not usefull people. they aren't going to find new jobs because they just arent good enough to compete.

2040-50% of the types of people employed today...will have no skills making them employable. From now until then we will see less and less people employed.

[wutitiz]

Originally Posted by marcopolo

All that underutilized labor is going to go to the same place that elevator operators, telephone operators, telegraph agents, men with shovels displaced by earthmovers, file clerks displaced by digital records, TV repairmen, slide rule mathematicians, ditch diggers, pole climbers, etc. etc. went: to new and undreamed of pursuits.

In 1900 when over 90% of farm labor was about to become surplus, did ANYONE imagine the jobs that would be available in the 1920's and the 40's and the 60's? Why then do we need to be able to picture the jobs of 2020 and 2040 in order to believe in a better future?

The only way a new age of innovation and dynamic change could be thwarted is through some social engineering scheme that loses faith in human ingenuity and starts paying people just for breathing and breeding. This is a real threat: some of these types are already here, posting on C-D.

3rd paragraph here is key. The coming robotics revolution is bound to be exploited by socialists and rent seekers as a reason for a bigger welfare state. And the low info voter, unable to grasp the argument laid out in paragraphs 1 and 2, will buy the socialist's pitch.

This is a good example of why econ 101 should be taught in high school.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by Bideshi

The really revolutionary thinking will be centered on what to do with hundreds of millions of redundant human workers.

Here's a revolutionary idea....get rid of the Department of Education and get the pseudo-federal government out of the education business.

You should have entered your 5th Level Economy -- Research & Development -- in the mid-1990s.

You didn't, because the Left-Wing destroyed the education system in the US.

From the word "go" meaning that if tomorrow Obama disbanded the Department of non-Education and rescinded or repealed all pseudo-federal laws and regulations, it will be 20 years before you are in a position to enter the 5th Level Economy....which would be 2034.

And if you wait, too long, other States will jump in, take it over, and you'll be left out.

Originally Posted by CravingMountains

And the 1% will get richer.....and richer.....and richer.....and richer.

Well....sounds like a good excuse as any for you to go to the mall and charge $5,000 worth of useless crap on your credit card, so you can give the 1% $7,000 in interest payments.

Originally Posted by wutitiz

historically, technology has never been correlated with increased unemployment.

Uh, wut?

The Great Depression was caused by technology, namely Electro-Mechanical Industrialization.

Originally Posted by Indentured Servant

Yep....I have been saying this for some time now. People keep blaming things on off shoring and free trade deals.....but really the big culprit is automation.

Automation plays only a very small role at this point.

The primary reason you are losing jobs is inefficient use of Capital.

Capital loves being used efficiently. Capital strives to be used efficiently. When Capital is not used efficiently, it flees.....like now.....Capital is fleeing the grossly inefficient US to go to more efficient developing-States.

Originally Posted by ambient

Bingo!

This is something that neither conservatives nor liberals have the answer to.

I'm a conservative and I have the answer.

Originally Posted by ambient

In the past, we've been able to shift employment focus to other industries as technology expands.

No, not quite, but you are so close to the right answer.

I know what you're trying to say, you're just not putting it correctly.

This "shift employment focus" as you put it should be to the 5th Level Economy which is R&D.

You got people running around screaming "Chemtrails" and "Global-Warming"....so, no, your work-force is not intelligent enough to engage in R&D.

You can thank Liberals for that.

Originally Posted by wutitiz

After 100 years of incredible tech progress, US employment in 2000 was 4%. How do you explain that?

Economic Levels [of Development].

That's one reason. Another reason is that the US oppressed other States politically, socially and economically....just like the US has been doing in Ukraine since the Clinton Administration.

Let's go back to 1968....

Excepting Morocco, Algiers, South Africa and Angola, the US alone or with Britain is oppressing every African State.

The US is oppressing Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Brasil, Chile and Argentina in Central and South America.

The US is oppressing Greece...the second time 20 years a Democrat President has illegally over-thrown the Greek government, and set up a puppet dictatorship. The US is also oppressing Italy and Spain, mostly because the US thinks it needs army, navy and air force bases in Italy, and navy and air force bases in Spain.

The US is oppressing every State in Eastern Europe. The Romanian Lei isn't allowed to be traded on the world market, because the US and Britain said so. Hungarian Forints? Nope, not allowed to be traded on the global market, because the US and Britain said so. Polish Zlots, Yugoslavian Dinar, not allowed to be traded. The Ruble used by the Soviet Union? Not allowed to be traded on the world market.

And then some people actually insist the Soviet Union was a super-power.

How does a State push its hegemony, when its currency isn't even allowed to be traded?

Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India, Thailand, Vietnam....all oppressed by the US.

Originally Posted by Egbert

.... I question how much room for improvement there is in our standard of living in our current economic system.

That's good thinking.

The Standard of Living for some Americans will continue to improve, but for the majority of Americans, it will actually start declining.

Originally Posted by wutitiz

Economic gibberish. If labor saving devices resulted in higher standards of living during the 20th/early 21st century, why couldn't it be expected to continue through the remainder of the 21st century?

Did I mention that technology is not free?

Originally Posted by wutitiz

Or put conversely, if labor saving devices will cause unemployment in the 21st century, why didn't they do so in the 20th century?

You need to make the distinction between household technology, and industrial or commercial technology.

Originally Posted by middle-aged mom

The majority of U.S. workers have always been low skilled. They farmed. They worked in factories and manufactured stuff. They typed, filed, copied and answered the phone. They processed corporate payrolls and balanced the books. They cashed/ cleared our checks, gave us phone numbers, installed our landlines and phones.

Um, those are not low-skilled jobs.

An Iowa farm girl having 14 years in 1910 was a helluva lot smarter in biology, chemistry, physics and botany than any moron walking around with an high school diploma today.

People were smarter then, if for no other reason than they had to actually think.

Originally Posted by middle-aged mom

Productivity used to track employment and vice-versa. Steadily rising productivity raised all boats for much of the last century.

No, never. There's no relationship. That's Keynesian stupidity.

Originally Posted by middle-aged mom

My personal Plan B is to become a convicted felon so I will get 3 hots and a cot and medical care.

Then make sure it's a federal crime so you can go do a federal penitentiary, and learn how to ride horses and play tennis and stuff.

Originally Posted by mwruckman

Then the desparate impoverished masses will simply rip their balls off.

What? On a video game?

Uh, that's not real life.....it's a video game.

Neither the Stupid Class nor the Dependent Class have any guts.

Originally Posted by marcopolo

When we went from 80% of us growing the food to 2%, we did not end up with 78% unemployment.

And why not?

There is a reason why, but first you glossed over the fact that it took your Agricultural Sector 70+ years to fully complete Electro-Mechanical industrialization....finishing in the early 1960s...just 50 years ago.

When did you enter your 3rd Level Economy?

Originally Posted by marcopolo

This time is NOT different.

It is different....and you will see that soon enough.

Originally Posted by marcopolo

In 1900 when over 90% of farm labor was about to become surplus, did ANYONE imagine the jobs that would be available in the 1920's and the 40's and the 60's?

It became surplus over the next 65 years.....that is quite a bit of time to reabsorb that labor.

Originally Posted by marcopolo

Why then do we need to be able to picture the jobs of 2020 and 2040 in order to believe in a better future?

Because you are stalled in your 4th Level Economy, and unable to move into your 5th Level Economy.

Would you like to see examples of Zero Level Economies that stalled?

You surely can.....they still exist.....there are stalled Zero Level Economies out there on this Earth right now, this minute....not many, but they're still out there.

Economically...

Mircea

[mwruckman]

Originally Posted by Bideshi

It is said that the Illuminati's goal (elite, globalists, or whatever you want to call them) is a world population of 500,000. That means only one in seven of us fit into their plan.

So the only question is do you believe you are the one of the chosen or are you one of the 6 out of 7 slated for elimination?