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And the 1% will get richer.....and richer.....and richer.....and richer.
They depend on consumers, the consumer depends on jobs from them to make money. It's a cycle, if no one has a job the cycle is broken and everyone is screwed. It's going to be an interesting ride but I don't see how our capitalistic society can survive as it stands now.
These predictions have been made in the past but this is completely different scenario than replacing the buggy whip maker. Tech jobs in the robot industry will be plentiful but even those will be replaced. Consider something like the 3-d printer, in the future if you want to buy something you can just download it. Any idea how many jobs that eliminates?
historically, technology has never been correlated with increased unemployment. Look at the transition from horse to car that occurred in the US from about 1925-1945. Millions of jobs as farriers, harness-makers, etc. were destroyed.
If an 18 year old in 1930 decided to follow his dad into the farrier trade, he was in for a rude awakening. However, millions of jobs in Detroit, as well as mechanics, auto insurance agents, gas station clerks, car salesmen, car wash attendants....list goes on...were created, as if out of thin air.
This is completely different situation because these robots can or will replace every conceivable job. Tech jobs will increase, maintenance and building of robots for example. What happens when the robots take those jobs?
historically, technology has never been correlated with increased unemployment. Look at the transition from horse to car that occurred in the US from about 1925-1945. Millions of jobs as farriers, harness-makers, etc. were destroyed.
If an 18 year old in 1930 decided to follow his dad into the farrier trade, he was in for a rude awakening. However, millions of jobs in Detroit, as well as mechanics, auto insurance agents, gas station clerks, car salesmen, car wash attendants....list goes on...were created, as if out of thin air.
The difference in your example is that the car replaced the horse or the lawn mower replaced the push mower.
ATMS, robots and computers replace humans.
Robots can run factories and replace modules themselves in defective units as well.
Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates isn’t going to sugarcoat things: The increasing power of automation technology is going to put a lot of people out of work. Business Insider reports that Gates gave a talk at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington, DC this week and said that both governments and businesses need to start preparing for a future where lots of people will be put out of work by software and robots.
“Software substitution, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses… it’s progressing,” Gates said. “Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set… 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.”
As for what governments should do to prevent social unrest in the wake of mass unemployment, the Microsoft cofounder said that they should basically get on their knees and beg businesses to keep employing humans over algorithms. This means perhaps eliminating payroll and corporate income taxes while also not raising the minimum wage so that businesses will feel comfortable employing people at dirt-cheap wages instead of outsourcing their jobs to an iPad.
And it’s not just “low-skilled” workers who will have to worry about automation. As Business Insider points out, The Economist earlier this year predicted that high-paying jobs such as accountants, real estate sales agents and commercial pilots would all lose their jobs to software within the next 20 years
Yep....I have been saying this for some time now. People keep blaming things on off shoring and free trade deals.....but really the big culprit is automation. The real deal is when automation becomes recursive.....meaning that it can reproduce itself. In other words, software that writes software and robots that produce robots.
Even now if technology was fully leverage.....it would cause economic collapse because it would render many ways of doing things less needed. For example, telecommuting could do major damage to the market for office space.....collapsing that industry. How about online education replacing brick and mortar at colleges and maybe even in secondary schools.
On another note, health care is the leading growth industry. In other words, much of our economy is based upon sickness. This means that if people started eating the right things and living a healthy lifestyle that it would be counter productive to economic growth. How many others are employed in the prison industrial complex or social work to treat poverty? Its hard to see how any of these problems can be resolved when our economy is so heavily invested in their existence.
Pelosi will tell you that you will be free to explore your passions without being tied to a job. Which will be really nice until the mortgage comes due at the start of the month............
Well one thing is machines breaks down and need to have tech support and maintenance done by humans if they fail so a job in those fields and also a job in the skilled trades is where it is at right now since Heavy Duty Diesel Mechanic can make a lot of money and when a truck or heavy machinery breaks down there are only a handful of people who can work on them and they are in demand and the job is one that won't be going anywhere even if busses and 18-wheelers drive themselves they still need to marinated and fixed by a human.
As for 3D printers it means that small business can prototype and get manufacturing down to a smaller scale and all you have to do is think of t something that has not been invented that well be major breakthrough and sell a lot of units as long as you have the patent to it you are set.
Plus all it means is we will have to adapt to major changes and new markets and jobs will be created that we never even thought about before.
And the 1% will get richer.....and richer.....and richer.....and richer.
Bingo!
This is something that neither conservatives nor liberals have the answer to. In the past, we've been able to shift employment focus to other industries as technology expands. Today with the capacity of technology and the low-cost outsourcing infrastructure, there will be nothing left for entire swaths of the population.
Conservatives are people who are oblivious to these unprecedented trends (aka, it's not the 1950s anymore) and will disdainfully dismiss those future unemployed...."it's their own fault for being lazy."
Liberals are people who might realize these trends but think the answer is to just put everyone on welfare. That's an unsustainable band-aid.
While income inequality is generally good, there is a level beyond which it will become dangerous to a society. This together with climate change are probably the two most pivotal issues humanity will face in this century.
Mankind is and always has been its own worst enemy. The only question is at what point will man achieve the technical ability to render himself obsolete.
Our psychopathic obsession with material wealth will in the end be our own demise.
historically, technology has never been correlated with increased unemployment. Look at the transition from horse to car that occurred in the US from about 1925-1945. Millions of jobs as farriers, harness-makers, etc. were destroyed.
If an 18 year old in 1930 decided to follow his dad into the farrier trade, he was in for a rude awakening. However, millions of jobs in Detroit, as well as mechanics, auto insurance agents, gas station clerks, car salesmen, car wash attendants....list goes on...were created, as if out of thin air.
I hear this response a lot. Its wrong. Its right up there with "home prices will never fall, because they have never done so in the past here".
This time is different. A farrier losing his job, could pretty easily go get a job selling a car. The changes coming mean that all of the other low end non-trained jobs....arent being created-because when they are a computer will do them.
What WILL be created? Things like AI interfacing specialist, requiring 4 years of training, and a higher then average intelligence. Guess what? we're talking about replacing average intelligence people. They arent going to retrain.
This time is different. Those that fail to recognize this and go on like you will cause incredible harm to us as a people.
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