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The polls told me so they must be true. By that standard Clinton should be president eh? ALL polls,yes even those that show Trump slightly above 50% or at 50% are full of BS.
The point is people are trying to discredit polling because they "got the 2016 election wrong". They actually didn't - they were pretty spot on.
Of course, there is a worthwhile discussion to be had on why we would want to rely on national polls to predict an EC election - but that's really not the topic.
I've said this a dozen times or so. And the reality is something like this: The RCP poll average said Hillary would win the popular vote by 3.4%. In fact, she won it by 2.1%. So, the poll average was correct within 1.3%. The polls don't attempt to measure the impact of the EC and that's what accounts for Trump winning there because he carried 3 states by a total of about 72,000 votes.
Than there is what the polls told us about the midyear election of 2018. It predicted the democrats would out vote the republicans by 7.3% on the average. The actual numbers appear to be the democrats lead voting over republicans by 8.1%. It was projected the democrats would capture 25-40 republican seats in the House of Representatives. The actual number was 40.
Still, the Trumpers will beat the drum about "how all the polls were wrong and can't be trusted". Unfortunately, it fits into their little narrative about how everyone is out to get "po....Donald Trump". Factor that out and they have no more excuses. Their man is simply an unpopular President who has not gotten a 50% approval rating for even one day of the two years he has been in office. I'm starting to think almost any democrat can beat him in the current climate.
Average Approval of Presidents After 2 Years In Office
Best To Worst in History
1. John F. Kennedy: Approve 74% Disapprove 13% (Net +61%)
2. George W. Bush: Approve 72% Disapprove 24% (Net +48%)
3. Lyndon B. Johnson: Approve 70% Disapprove 16% (Net +54%)
4. George H.W. Bush: Approve 69% Disapprove 27% (Net +42%)
5. Dwight D. Eisenhower: Approve 67% Disapprove 19% (Net +48%)
6. Richard M. Nixon: Approve 59% Disapprove 23% (Net +36%)
7. Ronald Reagan: Approve 56% Disapprove 36% (Net +20%)
8. Harry Truman: Approve 55% Disapprove 32% (Net +23%)
9. Barack Obama: Approve 55% Disapprove 41% (Net +14%)
10. Jimmy Carter: Approve 54% Disapprove 30% (Net +24%)
11. Bill Clinton: Approve 51% Disapprove 43% (Net +8%)
12. Gerald Ford: Approve 46% Disapprove 37% (Net +9%) 13. Donald Trump: Approve 38% Disapprove 57% (Net -19%)
Donald Trump is the only President in Polling History to be underwater after 2 years in office, and he’s underwater by a mile. Usually, a President is more popular in the first years of his term than later on. The only exception to that among his polled predecessors was Reagan.
I've said this a dozen times or so. And the reality is something like this: The RCP poll average said Hillary would win the popular vote by 3.4%. In fact, she won it by 2.1%. So, the poll average was correct within 1.3%. The polls don't attempt to measure the impact of the EC and that's what accounts for Trump winning there because he carried 3 states by a total of about 72,000 votes.
Than there is what the polls told us about the midyear election of 2018. It predicted the democrats would out vote the republicans by 7.3% on the average. The actual numbers appear to be the democrats lead voting over republicans by 8.1%. It was projected the democrats would capture 25-40 republican seats in the House of Representatives. The actual number was 40.
Still, the Trumpers will beat the drum about "how all the polls were wrong and can't be trusted". Unfortunately, it fits into their little narrative about how everyone is out to get "po....Donald Trump". Factor that out and they have no more excuses. Their man is simply an unpopular President who has not gotten a 50% approval rating for even one day of the two years he has been in office. I'm starting to think almost any democrat can beat him in the current climate.
Not surprising considering the non-stop media hate. Few people have a mind of their own...they let the TV tell them what to think.
The various media outlets, TV, cable, websites, newspapers and magazines have a similar proportion of different political viewpoints, as does the general population of the country. A few of them are ultra right-wing, just as a small segment of our population is. There's a few of them that are radical-left, as well. But most of them serve the more moderate majority, which occupies the center, politically.
It's easy to understand why right-wingers would think that most of the media is against their narrow interests-----because it is. The reasonable people of the country, who don't buy into the arguments promoted by radicals, have quite a good selection of news sources that provide fair and truthful coverage. Most people can choose some that suit them, out of those.
Average Approval of Presidents After 2 Years In Office
Best To Worst in History
1. John F. Kennedy: Approve 74% Disapprove 13% (Net +61%)
2. George W. Bush: Approve 72% Disapprove 24% (Net +48%)
3. Lyndon B. Johnson: Approve 70% Disapprove 16% (Net +54%)
4. George H.W. Bush: Approve 69% Disapprove 27% (Net +42%)
5. Dwight D. Eisenhower: Approve 67% Disapprove 19% (Net +48%)
6. Richard M. Nixon: Approve 59% Disapprove 23% (Net +36%)
7. Ronald Reagan: Approve 56% Disapprove 36% (Net +20%)
8. Harry Truman: Approve 55% Disapprove 32% (Net +23%)
9. Barack Obama: Approve 55% Disapprove 41% (Net +14%)
10. Jimmy Carter: Approve 54% Disapprove 30% (Net +24%)
11. Bill Clinton: Approve 51% Disapprove 43% (Net +8%)
12. Gerald Ford: Approve 46% Disapprove 37% (Net +9%) 13. Donald Trump: Approve 38% Disapprove 57% (Net -19%)
Donald Trump is the only President in Polling History to be underwater after 2 years in office, and he’s underwater by a mile. Usually, a President is more popular in the first years of his term than later on. The only exception to that among his polled predecessors was Reagan.
I should point out that Trump was the least popular presidential candidate in history according to polls, and he still won. I'm not sure what's the purpose of these polls anyway. The national fabric is changing, it's becoming more and more polarized. It seems unthinkable these days for a president to have a popular rating well above 50% anymore. If he's a Republican, Democrats will hate him. If he's a Democrat, Republicans will hate him.
I've never been polled and still to this day don't know a single person who ever has been. They are propaganda.
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...bring on Nov 2020
