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Rasmussen is an outlier and always has been, mainly because they only poll people with landlines which means they miss most people under 70. Fivethirtyeight has him at 41.9%
Trump wins wherever he holds rallies at.
Republicans won every seat that Trump held a rally for in 2018 except for New Jersey and one other.
And Trump held rallies for only Senate seats in 2018, apart from the house seat in Kentucky and it delivered victory too.
So its impossible for a Democrat to beat Trump in 2020, because Trump's rallies are too powerful.
No poll can defeat Trump's rallies.
And his Hispanic poll numbers are getting bigger and bigger, at a similar level to George Bush 2004.
Trump continues to trail Richard "Tricky Dick" Nixon in fantasy politics ...
Trump has never been as popular as Nixon at any point up until now. Trump has never hit 50% approval in the aggregated polls, ever. When it bumps up a little Trumpies have been known to refer to it as 'skyrocketing', then the skyrocket fizzles.
Trump is so personally objectionable he lost the 'middle of the road' voters after the first week in office and has never gained them back.
They predicted the 2016 results correctly, so yeah blow them off that worked out great last time
Haha. They pat themselves on the back for getting the same results as the electoral college when that is not what was polled. They polled popular vote like everyone did and let's not forget Clinton won that. Rasmussen was among the least accurate about what they actually were polling. FWIW, they totally blew the vote in 2018 as well way underpredicting the blue wave.
Trump is where he has been from about the first week - high 30s to low 40s. He can't win re-election if the approval ratings reflect how the vote goes. The thing is no one cares about anything but Trump himself. Economy, tax cuts, repulsive behavior, Mueller - nothing moves the needle. Trump brags that he can shoot someone on 5th Ave and his supporters will stay with him. But it is also true that no matter what good things he might do, his negative ratings are just as set in stone.
Trump is where he has been from about the first week - high 30s to low 40s. He can't win re-election if the approval ratings reflect how the vote goes.
That's a curious statement, considering that's exactly what happened in 2016
That's a curious statement, considering that's exactly what happened in 2016
His opponent was even worse. But forget 2016. Focus instead on what happened in 2018. Midterms are a referendum on the president. Dems won the cumulative vote by over 10 million! It's not perfect of course. Obama was re-elected after getting trounced in 2010. But in that case, the economy picked up and saved him. Trump has nothing going for him. People are voting on HIM and him alone. The haters hate him and the lovers love him and the haters greatly outnumber the lovers. The dems would have to nominate a real loser for the central issue to shift from Trump. They may well do that.
His opponent was even worse. But forget 2016. Focus instead on what happened in 2018. Midterms are a referendum on the president. Dems won the cumulative vote by over 10 million! It's not perfect of course. Obama was re-elected after getting trounced in 2010. But in that case, the economy picked up and saved him. Trump has nothing going for him. People are voting on HIM and him alone. The haters hate him and the lovers love him and the haters greatly outnumber the lovers. The dems would have to nominate a real loser for the central issue to shift from Trump. They may well do that.
OK that's a great story and everything but the presidential election is based on the electoral college, not popular vote. House seats are distributed by population and Democrats took those in big numbers. But senate seats are segregated at 2 per state which is a good analogue to the electoral college and the GOP still controls it, which is what you should be expecting in the presidential election.
The left has been fighting Trump to 'resist' and so far hasn't learned their lesson to stop and consider what the grievances were that led the other side to elect a useful idiot like Donald J. Trump. Nobody should be surprised after it happens again in 2020
All polls are accurate, but some don't count.
Who cares what "adults" think, or what "registered voters" think when only 47% of "registered voters" will vote?
As we get closer to the election almost all polls will switch and start talking to people who will vote. I have no idea why they bother polling people who don't count.....
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Keep telling yourself stories.
