Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 10 hours ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,160 posts, read 13,444,010 times
Reputation: 19454
Advertisements
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713
I do not know why so many of these people are in such a state of confusion. The votes today are for virtue signalling purposes only. They will on their own have no practical effect, other than perhaps to stimulate some other action in the future that could have a practical effect.
The most likely scenario is an extension, possible to June/July.
The EU can easily oput an end to all of this by stisfying the UK Government Lawyers in relation to the UK being trapped in the backstop.
They have already said the UK will not be however they need to make this legally binding in order that there be no doubt whatsoever.
The other alternative is the Malthouse Compromise.
STRASBOURG — The Brexit negotiation is "over" and the U.K. must now tell the EU what relationship it wants before asking for an extension to Article 50, the bloc's negotiator Michel Barnier told MEPs today.
Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People's Party in the European Parliament, concurred, saying the bar is set high for the EU to agree to a Brexit delay. “We don’t see any chance for prolongation without clarification from the British side,” he said, adding that “we have to create pressure on the British side to give us a clear idea of what they want to achieve.”
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that there will not be an extension granted by the EU, just observing that their comments leave the impression that they very well might not. Instead, I suspect this is just a negotiating ploy that will likely be mitigated by a very large extortion payment to the EU by the UK, which will then lead to a short extension. That is not a certain outcome, but it does look like the most likely outcome to me, considering the corrupt band of characters that we are dealing with in the EU leadership group.
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 10 hours ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,160 posts, read 13,444,010 times
Reputation: 19454
One possible way forward is the Malthouse Compromise.
The compromise has the backing of the Tory European Research Group and DUP and stands a much better chance of passing than May's current agreement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Guardian
What is the Malthouse compromise?
The housing minister Kit Malthouse brokered talks between Brexiters and former remainers on a possible way out of the Brexit impasse.
The resulting 'Malthouse compromise' involves redrafting the backstop arrangement for the Irish border which is so unpopular with Conservative Eurosceptic MPs and the Democratic Unionist party, which props up the government.
It would also extend the transition period, set out under the previously negotiated withdrawal agreement, until the end of 2021. The extension is designed to give extra time to agree a new trading relationship.
Under the plan, the backstop would be replaced with a free trade agreement with as yet unknown technology to avoid customs checks on the Irish border.
If the attempt to renegotiate the backstop fails, the Malthouse compromise proposes what amounts to a managed no deal.
The PM would ask the EU to honour the extended transition period, in return for agreeing the £39bn divorce bill and its commitments on EU citizens’ rights. This would give both sides time to prepare for departure on WTO terms at the end of 2021 – or to negotiate a different deal.
The compromise is backed by the DUP, the European Research Group of hard Brexiters, and former remainers including Nicky Morgan. It is this unlikely coalition that helped secure Commons backing for the Brady amendment, which pledged to replace the backstop with unspecified 'alternative arrangements'.
Before MPs voted for that amendment and against others, Theresa May praised the Malthouse compromise. She said these were 'serious proposals' and she would engage with them 'seriously and positively'.
One possible way forward is the Malthouse Compromise.
The compromise has the backing of the Tory European Research Group and DUP and stands a much better chance of passing than May's current agreement.
It looks good to me and it is the only proposal up for consideration that I am aware of that would actually represent an alternative that the UK Parliament could choose as its own. Is there another option? Theresa May's deal has been voted down twice already, so there is the Malthouse Compromise, or what other deal is up for consideration?
In any case, this is not likely to pass Parliament I do not believe and it would not unanimously be approved by the UK27 even if it were. But you are right that this is a better way to go.
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 10 hours ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,160 posts, read 13,444,010 times
Reputation: 19454
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713
It looks good to me and it is the only proposal up for consideration that I am aware of that would actually represent an alternative that the UK Parliament could choose as its own. Is there another option? Theresa May's deal has been voted down twice already, so there is the Malthouse Compromise, or what other deal is up for consideration?
In any case, this is not likely to pass Parliament I do not believe and it would not unanimously be approved by the UK27 even if it were. But you are right that this is a better way to go.
The other options are Labour's plan to remain in the customs union, however this would mean we would still be subject to EU Laws and trade agreements with very little say.
There is also an amendment which involves revoking 'Article 50', which is very unlikely, as well as the possibility of a second national referedum, although this is also unlikely when compared to other options such as Malthouse.
So Michel Barnier stands up on for the teevee camera holding a ream+ page paper document, waving it around and saying that it took 1.5 years to come up with this agreement with the UK. And there won't be another.
So it seems the vote tonight is for naught UNLESS the next step is to withdraw Article 50.
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 10 hours ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,160 posts, read 13,444,010 times
Reputation: 19454
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
So Michel Barnier stands up on for the teevee camera holding a ream+ page paper document, waving it around and saying that it took 1.5 years to come up with this agreement with the UK. And there won't be another.
So it seems the vote tonight is for naught UNLESS the next step is to withdraw Article 50.
Barnier, Tusk and Junker aren't elected they are just bureaucrats, it's really up to the national leaders.
In terms of no-agreement it will mean that the EU gets no money and will cause trading problems with a country that the EU has a $100 Billion a year trade surplus with.
In terms of the Malthouse compromise, that would give the EU an initial payment of £39 Billion and possible further payments of around £16 Billion on top of that.
So it's in the EU's own interest to sort this out and Bsrniers position is partcuarly stupid, although his negotiations and backstop were stupid to start with.
Despite an attempt by Caroline Spelman to withdraw Amendment A, that withdrawal was overruled by Speaker Bercow and the vote to never leave with no deal is now being completed.
Ayes to the right - 312
Noes to the left - 308
The amendment is agreed to. Of course this does not change no deal being the current default scenario that will occur on March 29, unless some other agreement is reached with support of both the UK parliament and a unanimous vote of the EU27, or unless the UK Parliament votes to revoke their Article 50 notice of departure.
In fact, this vote was not legally binding.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
