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In ruling out a deal parliament has also ruled out a brexit with any claim to popular support.
Assuming a no deal is ruled out tomorrow the only option remaining on the plate will be an extension, if granted presumably till May immediately prior to the European elections.
Until point I imagine there will be further probably fruitless negotiations to bring about an acceptable deal with the remaining options being once more a no deal or withdrawing article 50.
Indeed it's rather silly to me for people to be claiming that this is a success for pro-Brexit position. Parliament is still in charge and if a majority wish to seek a change in the current law which is a no deal exit by default, then they will certainly pursue that. Several members brought this up in the debate today.
In ruling out a deal parliament has also ruled out a brexit with any claim to popular support.
Assuming a no deal is ruled out tomorrow the only option remaining on the plate will be an extension, if granted presumably till May immediately prior to the European elections.
Until point I imagine there will be further probably fruitless negotiations to bring about an acceptable deal with the remaining options being once more a no deal or withdrawing article 50.
I think that is basically right, with the observation that there is no substantial support within the UK Parliament for revoking Article 50.
No, it will not. When the UK voted to trigger Article 50 notifying the EU of their intent to leave the WU, that began a 2-year process, at the end of which the UK will no longer be a member of the UK, UNLESS BOTH the UK and the EU agree to alternative terms. So the UK Parliament does not currently have the unilateral authority to stop the UK from exiting the EU on March 29, 2019 at this point. The EU must agree to whatever the UK proposes as an alternative, if in fact there is any alternative that the UK Parliament is capable of agreeing on.
It appears highly likely at this point that there is no alternative that the UK will agree to, aside from a short extension, not beyond June 2019. For that proposal to be implemented, ALL members of the EU27 must unanimously agree with the proposal. If one of these countries votes no, then the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019 with no deal. If they vote yes, then the UK will be on track to leave with no deal in June 2019, again, unless some other agreement is unanimously agreed to by the UK Parliament and ALL the countries of the EU27.
You responded to something that was not my point.
I'm aware of the current law and status governing a no deal exit on the 29th by default.
I said it would be incumbent on the government to SEEK a change in that status if the House votes to reject no deal.
If they vote to reject no deal and vote for an extension (highly likely) then I'm sure the government would make that request to the EU.
As I'm sure you remember, the EU deeply regretted the UK triggering article 50 so I think its likely they would vote for an extension or a revocation if the UK make that request.
I'm aware of the current law and status governing a no deal exit on the 29th by default.
I said it would be incumbent on the government to SEEK a change in that status if the House votes to reject no deal.
If they vote to reject no deal and vote for an extension (highly likely) then I'm sure the government would make that request to the EU.
As I'm sure you remember, the EU deeply regretted the UK triggering article 50 so I think its likely they would vote for an extension or a revocation if the UK make that request.
As someone upthread said, this is all very confusing to those of us who are not in the country. Maybe you could answer some questions I have.
Is there a chance that the U.K. could hold another vote on Brexit? And if so, would the EU accept the results if the Brits voted to not leave the EU after all? And do you have a sense what the general feeling about Brexit is in Britain right now? There's so much written about it and all these vote in Parliament that it's hard to sift through it all to find the answers.
I'm aware of the current law and status governing a no deal exit on the 29th by default.
I said it would be incumbent on the government to SEEK a change in that status if the House votes to reject no deal.
If they vote to reject no deal and vote for an extension (highly likely) then I'm sure the government would make that request to the EU.
As I'm sure you remember, the EU deeply regretted the UK triggering article 50 so I think its likely they would vote for an extension or a revocation if the UK make that request.
What on Earth do you think that Theresa May and her government have been doing over the last couple of months? They have been seeking to negotiate a mutually agreeable deal with the EU, to no avail.
Just FYI, a vote against tomorrow's proposal to leave the EU with no deal is not a vote against Brexit, or a vote to withdraw the Article 50 withdrawal notice. That would require a vote in favor of one of those proposals, which is no more likely to pass than this proposal today was. So, no change in this status will be or should be pursued if and when the vote tomorrow fails to pass.
In fact, no action towards the EU will be warranted after tomorrow's vote, regardless of the outcome. However, if Thursday's vote to request an short extension passes, as is expected, THEN the UK government will approach the EU with that request, which will only be implemented if there is unanimous agreement by ALL the countries in the EU27 to grant that short extension. This agreement to this request is by no means a foregone conclusion. We will have to wait and see. If ALL the countries in the EU27 do NOT unanimously agree to this extension request, then the UK will exit the EU on March 29, 2019.
From the perspective of those who are Pro-Brexit, such as myself, this will be Churchillian class victory, in no uncertain terms.
As someone upthread said, this is all very confusing to those of us who are not in the country. Maybe you could answer some questions I have.
Is there a chance that the U.K. could hold another vote on Brexit? And if so, would the EU accept the results if the Brits voted to not leave the EU after all? And do you have a sense what the general feeling about Brexit is in Britain right now? There's so much written about it and all these vote in Parliament that it's hard to sift through it all to find the answers.
Could there be a second referendum? Yes if that's what a majority in the Commons want. I think that's unclear at this point. But a referendum is not a legally binding agreement.
The UK Supreme Court voted that Parliament must approve any Brexit plan.
So far, it's not clear that a majority in Parliament supports Brexit in any form.
I think the only thing a majority will vote for right now is to extend and avoid leaving with no deal this month. So as another poster point out it goes back to the EU at that point.
A rejected deal
A probably rejected no deal
A probable request for an extension.
Either after the extension or if it is denied we will have;
Possibly a repeat vote on the deal
Possibly a repeat vote on no deal
Assuming the above are again rejected there will be withdrawing article 50, 2nd referendum or general election on the table.
Not sure what happens if parliament reject everything, maybe crash out on a no deal?
Your sentence in red is not happening, with the exception of a general election, which of course will happen at some point, but not until after the UK has left the EU. I doubt the revotes you mentioned in the sentence before are happening either, as there is not enough time and it makes no sense to vote on the same matters again and again, with no changes, and so soon after the previous vote.
The most likely outcome at this point is the UK leaving the EU with no deal, which is fine, although it would be better if they left with a deal agreed with the EU in place. But the EU is apparently not willing to agree to a deal that actually allows the UK to leave the EU.
Indeed it's rather silly to me for people to be claiming that this is a success for pro-Brexit position. Parliament is still in charge and if a majority wish to seek a change in the current law which is a no deal exit by default, then they will certainly pursue that. Several members brought this up in the debate today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by atltechdude
Could there be a second referendum? Yes if that's what a majority in the Commons want. I think that's unclear at this point. But a referendum is not a legally binding agreement.
There's your problem. As it stands this is a win for the pro-BRexit crowd.
Maybe you don't have an understanding of how the Parliament works. May is the PM and as long as her coalition holds, she decides what happens. The only way for this to be usurped will be for her own party or the DUP to break the coalition AND if that were to happen, there won't be a Parliament until new elections happen. She's already withstood two votes of no-confidence.
You are giving hypothetical IFs that can't happen
Last edited by WaldoKitty; 03-12-2019 at 03:04 PM..
As someone upthread said, this is all very confusing to those of us who are not in the country. Maybe you could answer some questions I have.
Is there a chance that the U.K. could hold another vote on Brexit? And if so, would the EU accept the results if the Brits voted to not leave the EU after all? And do you have a sense what the general feeling about Brexit is in Britain right now? There's so much written about it and all these vote in Parliament that it's hard to sift through it all to find the answers.
The ECJ has ruled that the UK can unilaterally withdraw article 50 as long as it follows the UKs constitutional procedures. So the UK can cancel brexit at any point regardless of the EUs wishes. This would presumably but not explicitly require a parliamentary vote.
The EU has indicated that they would extend the leaving date for either a UK general election or referendum. This is currently not on the cards although the opposition party is now in favour of a referendum.
Popular opinion is still split. It may well have gone towards remain or may not, however it is highly unlikely a no deal exit would have popular support.
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