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Old 01-05-2018, 10:17 AM
 
Location: City Data Land
17,155 posts, read 12,970,933 times
Reputation: 33185

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Statistics lesson #1: Correlation does not equal causation.

 
Old 01-05-2018, 10:31 AM
 
29,552 posts, read 9,733,904 times
Reputation: 3473
Quote:
Originally Posted by carcrazy67 View Post
Actually in the case of item one and three, you are incorrect. The stock market anticipates future events and as such, it has and continues to price in the changes in the tax structure and removal of regulations. Tax cuts and a decrease in regulations were the centerpoint of Trump's campaign. Had the tax cuts collapsed, the market would have responded in a negative manner.

In the case of item 2, we do have more jobs. The labor participation rate has increased and there are more people in the workforce. How does the U6 under Trump compare with Obama? That said, perhaps you can enlighten me on how Obama was focused on job growth.

I think you'd have a hard time convincing most anybody, except those on the far left, that the market would do as well under Hillary or Bernie. Different policies.....different outcomes. From a market perspective I believe Hillary would have been better than the socialist....she loves Wall Street.

As I've said before, I'm no Trump supporter, in fact I have a significant dislike of the man, but some of the things he has done and will do are moving us in the right direction. I feel as though you are looking at this from a purely political perspective....you want your side to look good. Believe what you want to believe...hope it makes you feel good.
At least you are using some facts and reason that make some sense, but all not entirely true either...

Tax cuts were promises made by just about every GOP candidate for POTUS, Trump just jumped on the same misguided band wagon. Misguided because the tax cuts are happening at the wrong time and too much of the tax cuts are going where they are not needed, certainly not where average Americans are going to enjoy the benefits. At a minimum, there is no real reconciling the budget or future financial health with these tax cuts, estimated to raise the deficit to $1.7 trillion.

The equities markets have been rising for some time now and largely for reasons having nothing to do with anticipated tax cuts, as already pointed out in this thread many times. Had tax cuts collapsed, many of our corporations and highest income earners would have continued to enjoy very low NET tax rates anyway! This along with the other important reasons is essentially why the markets keep rising and why the "rich keep getting richer" regardless, especially during times of economic upswing!

Might be the number one thing the markets love most is stability, domestic and international stability that allows businesses the chance to do what they do, make profits in a stable predictable market, without shocks. No real surprises, disruptions to supplies, exchange rates, interest rates, energy supply/rates, inflation, labor supply/rates, etc.

Of course we also see all the other positives that typically come with a healthier economy, including the job increases (and less layoffs) that we were also enjoying before Trump came around. Those swings, that momentum, in a $20 trillion per year economy don't stop and start overnight! Downturns take awhile to come around. Upturns also continue for awhile, like also explained before in this same thread. Do Trump supporters really not accept these simple truths?

All to say "dollars to donuts" we'd be enjoying essentially the same gains if Hillary or Sanders had been elected instead of Trump. We LOVE to believe our elected leaders have the power to fulfill all our hopes and dreams in these regards, whether it be universal health care or better jobs/wages for everyone, but no one has that sort of power, not even Trump.

Anyone who thinks Trump is "moving us in the right direction" has a compass all out of whack...
 
Old 01-05-2018, 10:32 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,581 posts, read 28,687,607 times
Reputation: 25176
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
No, NO, Get out !!! Get out now !!! Armageddon !!!!!!

When everyone is getting in its time to get out !!!!!!

I know you’re kidding. But do not sell when the stock market is making new highs.

Where she stops, nobody knows.
 
Old 01-05-2018, 10:47 AM
 
29,552 posts, read 9,733,904 times
Reputation: 3473
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quick Enough View Post
Why do some whine and cry about "massive" debt ONLY when repubs are in charge?

Where were you during Obana's terms?

Tax cuts INCREASE fed revenues and in turn the debt will go DOWN as history has shown us.

The same claim was made about the W. Bush tax cuts from the left and the fed took in RECORD HIGH REVENUES.
You have a real penchant always to whine about the same partisan divide, but do you really believe anyone who follows politics and/or our economic outlook here in America doesn't care about the deficit? Anyone who has kids anyway, liberal or conservative, surely ought to care if they care about how our kids will also fare...

Deficit spending is obviously an issue, a problem when it gets into the "red zone." Liberals and conservatives who know the first thing about the effects of too much debt don't disagree about that problem. The disagreement is over where/how we should spend our tax revenue dollars and where/how we should collect those tax revenue dollars.

As for your tax cuts = less debt theory, I'm not sure unraveling your thoughts about that will prove any less a waste of time, but it's about the economy, the health of the economy that ultimately determines how hard or easy it will be to generate tax revenues from businesses and individuals rather than trust in the "trickle down" theory that all will benefit from tax cuts regardless when, where, how and for whom those tax cuts are made.
 
Old 01-05-2018, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,873 posts, read 9,550,882 times
Reputation: 15598
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Nope, we wouldn't be having one.
That is really funny. I suppose the soaring stock market under Obama was an illusion.
 
Old 01-05-2018, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,873 posts, read 9,550,882 times
Reputation: 15598
Bumped to remind certain people of certain facts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Stock market (S&P 500) performance 2009, Obama's first year: +26.5%
Stock market (S&P 500) performance 2017, Trump's first year: +19%.

So yes, we HAVE seen so much green. We saw it in Obama's first year.
 
Old 01-05-2018, 10:50 AM
 
29,552 posts, read 9,733,904 times
Reputation: 3473
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffbase40 View Post
At least he is trying to tackle the real problems instead of putting his head in the sand and ignoring them. That's exactly what Obama did. But he did give great speeches.
Too bad you weren't more specific, but today it seems the "real problem" Trump is attempting to tackle is Bannon...

That's the Trump we're all coming to know better than ever and love like no other POTUS before him!
 
Old 01-05-2018, 10:53 AM
 
Location: NYC
3,046 posts, read 2,385,425 times
Reputation: 2160
Quote:
Originally Posted by PCALMike View Post
With the tax cuts for the rich, they have already admitted that the big business leaders will do more stock buybacks. They are rewarded financially when the stock price increases and stock buybacks increase the stock price. The top 1% own almost 40% of the stock market in America. They are flying!
Precisely. How this helps the average citizen is beyond me. It simply helps the corporations and those at the very top. Only idiots are lauding this as some sort of win for all americans.
 
Old 01-05-2018, 10:53 AM
 
29,552 posts, read 9,733,904 times
Reputation: 3473
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffbase40 View Post
You really think Obamacare helped most Americans save money?
Could have!

All considered, given what alternatives we are now forced to expect (not to mention losing the prospect of health care access for all Americans like the rest of the modern world provides), we as a country could have saved a good deal of money on health care had we continued to build from what Obamacare started. Not to mention the lives also saved, but I know it's saving money that most people think about first...
 
Old 01-05-2018, 10:55 AM
 
79,907 posts, read 44,231,797 times
Reputation: 17209
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
That is really funny. I suppose the soaring stock market under Obama was an illusion.
It was. It was a Socialist illusion. It wasn't because of market fundamentals.
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