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The problem is....that has already happened and is continuing to happen. Most every business has already noted that even the threat of the tariffs, let alone the implementation, has already hurt them!
We can state with clarity - that Trump so far has not been up to the task. The guys mouth is a loose cannon and that is never a good thing.
If he had just shut up and talked behind the scenes...I think we'd be at 27K today. If he had shut up for the last 18 months we'd probably be at 29K+
Deferring solutions to problems is not a good idea. Since the Marshall Plan and WW II the rest of the world has been eating our lunch.
Deferring solutions to problems is not a good idea. Since the Marshall Plan and WW II the rest of the world has been eating our lunch.
Well, whether or not it is a "good idea" is a very conceptual take.
Based on that, we should scrap every car on the road, build high speed trains, nuke plants and more solar and force everyone into an electric vehicle......BUT, no, we won't do that. Instead we will defer the solution.
If we didn't defer the solution to the GWB Great Recession and spread it out over a decade or more (still doing it), then we would have a crash of the world economy to the point where even surviving and eating would come into play.
Slow but steady is the best way to do most everything.
Using that metric - again - we'd just raise taxes by 100% and pay off the deficit and maybe even a little of the debt, right? Obviously we should cut the deficit (and we were).
BUT, there is even more to it. First one has to play out the full game of chess virtually and decide what the course of action is that must be deferred or not! The odds that Trump has his China policies right are about zero - rather they are reactionary.
Business and deferral go hand in hand. What if BP had to pay out all the damages for their oil spill in one year? The same is true for most large settlements...the cost of NOT deferring is that you kill the goose that is laying the eggs that will make the eventual payments.
If we had a good plan and actually followed it over a decade or more...that would be the idea situation. But government by Tweet just is not going to end well. We can see it right here.
The true Trump Era is from the day of his Tax Cuts on. Since that time the market has sucked, NK has played him, more and more are getting thrown off of health care and absolutely nothing in terms of legislation (the way this country does things!) has been passed.
Let's not pretend we didn't want Germany and Japan and others to thrive and make our stuff. We NEEDED them all to do so. We set up the world Post-WWII to benefit ourselves....now is not the time to cry about that.
Went and did some reading. The day this thread was started there had been a little boost & everyone was enjoying the increase in the stock market.
At that time the Federal Reserve was being praised for keeping interest rates low and making investors look to the stock market for bigger gains.
Now we have our President claiming we need higher interest rates to make the stock market look more attractive.
My conclusion -- folks make up stuff to justify the narrative in their head.....lol.
Are you reading the same news that others do?
The Fed has been raising rates for a couple years and had plans to continue doing so.
The Prez claims we need LOWER interest rates and has bullied the Fed into stopping the normalization - because he is worried that, without free money, people won't spend.
The DOW...post "tax reform" is not made up in our heads. It is up now less than 4% in 16 months - which is about 30% of the normal gain in decent times. That's real money we don't have. Yet the POTUS keeps messing things up by Tweet. Why can't he just shut up??
Does he really know more about EVERYTHING than ANYONE? Or, is he just an idiot when it comes to long term economics? I vote for the later based on everything I have seen him do with his own money.
In fact, his lifetime ROI is closer to that 4% than to the 9-10% of the markets or 20% of Warren Buffet.
When one is clueless on a subject, they bring in the "best people" and they take a back seat.
Negotiations with China is like digging out a splinter. It might hurt a little now but will make things much better in the end.
OK, give us your prediction......
1. When...and how far down...will our trade deficit with China go? Yearly numbers only....please?
2. When....will the markets normalize - that is, when will interest rates be able to be "market" and the stock market make normal returns?
I want to know what you mean by "hurt now"...is "now" many years? How many?
Keep in mind that REAL (IMHO) trade fixes with China and others would be going on anyway...independent of tweets and threats and tariffs and deadlines. That's very normal...and most of Congress agrees on measures that have needed worked on.
So the issue isn't "Should nothing be done, or should Trump rule by Tweet?" - the issue is more whether this roller coaster...which is not going to end in anything solid and stable...has any benefit.
Running failed Casinos in Atlantic City and negotiating with real Scientists, Engineers, Economists and politically savvy educated Chinese officials....are NOT the same.
We are not in a reality TV show.
That's what I think many do not realize. Saying something does not make it so. The Trump Swamp is so outclassed by the Chinese and Putin and everyone else that it's not even a competition. This is nothing I figured out yesterday....when Trump was in the primaries I noted that he plays checkers, not chess. Nothing has changed. He has no Plan B...in fact, he has no Plan A. Just plays those checkers like a 7 year old.
The true Trump Era is from the day of his Tax Cuts on. Since that time the market has sucked, NK has played him, more and more are getting thrown off of health care and absolutely nothing in terms of legislation (the way this country does things!) has been passed.
That for me is the biggest thing.
The biggest economic policy was cutting taxes and since then there has not been a sudden surge or change....the economy has been chugging along as usual.
And there seems to be a general feeling that folks got to keep some of their money but it wasn't as good as they made you think it was going to be -- and that might be a problem.
The tax cuts to corporations were sold to be significant enough that we would see big investments, big wage increases...meh -- not bad but not inconsistent with what was going on before corporate tax cut.
Trump's approval is still struggling -- it might go up a point or two but then it drops right back down...again -- the actual real numbers we can debate but it is the trend that I will look at -- and the trend, given such a strong economy or claims of such a strong economy just haven't shown folks are feeling it.
The stock market has gone nowhere for over 15 months now. This is a bear market by anyone's honest assessment. The cycle is long, long in the tooth and a recession is a virtual certainty if Trump starts a trade war.
The Fed has been raising rates for a couple years and had plans to continue doing so.
The Prez claims we need LOWER interest rates and has bullied the Fed into stopping the normalization - because he is worried that, without free money, people won't spend.
The DOW...post "tax reform" is not made up in our heads. It is up now less than 4% in 16 months - which is about 30% of the normal gain in decent times. That's real money we don't have. Yet the POTUS keeps messing things up by Tweet. Why can't he just shut up??
Does he really know more about EVERYTHING than ANYONE? Or, is he just an idiot when it comes to long term economics? I vote for the later based on everything I have seen him do with his own money.
In fact, his lifetime ROI is closer to that 4% than to the 9-10% of the markets or 20% of Warren Buffet.
When one is clueless on a subject, they bring in the "best people" and they take a back seat.
You are right -- I had a brain mishap -- So blonde.
Trump did want the rates to be moved up -- I even wrote a post about that -- LOL -- I need to get food and fresh air -- I can't believe I did that.
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