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williepaws you clearly know how how these markets work.
US farmers ALWAYS sell as much pork to the US as they profitably can. selling more would likely reduce the price (ie flood the market)
US markets are saturated and thus US farmers export across the globe as much as they profitably can.
Trump's Trade war has reduced exports, to two major markets, MEX and CHINA. there is no place else to sell the pork without displacing competitors or expanding the market.
expanding the market takes many years and lots and lots of marketing.
If you get an american family to eat more pork they will eat less beef and chicken. the beef and chicken people will not stand by and see prices decline or market share lost just to support Trump or his trade war.
So the US gov CAN"T just give subsidies to the pork farmers to let them sell it cheaper.
You guys get it yet?
IF the gov subsidies PORK and SOY at the expense of beef and corn, you have a major lawsuit. If the gov subsidies PORK and soy at the expense of international competitors you have a major WTO complaint.
What don't you guys get? There will not be a large drop in pork prices WHILE the gov is subsidies the farmers incomes. Instead the product must be stockpiled and production levels must decline to match the new reality.
it is basic econ kids. Do you think pork farmers in the EU will sit idle? or chicken farmers in the US???
so to the Trumpers laughing and saying "big deal" "cheap bbq" and such like, sorry to tell you it don't work that way. You might get a few sales here and there but not a major change.
I don't get how or why people don't understand this.
That meat is not going to hit the U.S. markets in large enough quantities to cause prices to fall to any great extent.
That's where you're dead wrong, had Obama done or proposed something like this BECAUSE he was trying to negotiate fair trade deals for America not a single Trump supporter would have raised hell.
what the hell do you think TPP was mate?
Honestly you trump supporters voted without understanding the basics. YOu guys all cried about nasty old TPP and danced in joy when Trump abandoned it. BUT it was our carefully crafted weapon to beat China like a rag doll.
Trump blew it up like a fool. TPP was the trade war weapon of choice. japan, SK, Aussies, CAN, MEX and the USA, all aligned to fight China's market abuses. Dumb dumb trump.
Obama was not dumb like Trump, he knew this was a process , a multi step carefully crafted alliance that would have boxed in China and OBOR....
TPP was the anti OBOR, and fair trade weapon of choice, you guys blew it by using it for propaganda.
I don't get how or why people don't understand this.
That meat is not going to hit the U.S. markets in large enough quantities to cause prices to fall to any great extent.
It just isn't.
It's important that we discuss this in terms of short-term or long-term.
If there is a glut of meat at some point and storage\expiration become an issue then yes you will see price reductions on meat but they won't last in the long term as price equilibrium re-establishes.
If you guys would like a fairly recent real world example, during the financial crisis there was a glut of new cars out there that still had to be sold. They were discounting them massively while at the same time reducing production levels but the cars that are already made still have to be sold.
The discounts were so steep that it even tanked used car prices by 30%.
This went on for maybe a year or so and then long-term things evened backed out.
I'm just explaining this because when you say "it just isn't going to happen", you're quite possibly teeing it up for Trump supporters to crow how you were wrong because meat prices declined for 6 months towards the end of the year before returning to normal.
Please note, I'm making up timeframes as examples and I do not mean to refute what Evilcart is saying quite the opposite actually....just noting there could be a transitory period more notable than they are considering.
It's important that we discuss this in terms of short-term or long-term.
If there is a glut of meat at some point and storage\expiration become an issue then yes you will see price reductions on meat but they won't last in the long term as price equilibrium re-establishes.
If you guys would like a fairly recent real world example, during the financial crisis there was a glut of new cars out there that still had to be sold. They were discounting them massively while at the same time reducing production levels but the cars that are already made still have to be sold.
The discounts were so steep that it even tanked used car prices by 30%.
This went on for maybe a year or so and then long-term things evened backed out.
I'm just explaining this because when you say "it just isn't going to happen", you're quite possibly teeing it up for Trump supporters to crow how you were wrong because meat prices declined for 6 months towards the end of the year before returning to normal.
Please note, I'm making up timeframes as examples and I do not mean to refute what Evilcart is saying quite the opposite actually....just noting there could be a transitory period more notable than they are considering.
Stop using reason. Only blind partisanship is allowed on this forum.
There are many issues here besides that meat "piling up".
To wit there is more of it coming as animals already born and being raised for the food chain reach slaughtering age. If you keep processing such animals without a market to absorb, that meat will join the rest in cold storage.
Next what do ranchers, farmers and others do if the meat market does not improve (prices increase and or some solution is found for all this surplus).
Various agriculture subsidies exist to either keep farmers/ranchers from producing one good by paying them to plant/grow/raise something else. This or the government steps in (as with DT's $12million welfare check) and starts buying up surplus to prop up market prices.
Either way things can go down a slippery slope; especially since the USA is a member of the World Trade Organization and must abide by certain rules when shelling out money to various businesses.
Other members of that body are watching DT's every move in how he directs the USA in responding to tariffs. If they see something they don't like it is likely a compliant will be lodged with WTO. This and or other nations will file things away and use same methods if or when an industry of theirs is in trouble in future. Should the USA moan, they'll open those files and point to DT's actions and start wagging their fingers.
It's important that we discuss this in terms of short-term or long-term.
If there is a glut of meat at some point and storage\expiration become an issue then yes you will see price reductions on meat but they won't last in the long term as price equilibrium re-establishes.
If you guys would like a fairly recent real world example, during the financial crisis there was a glut of new cars out there that still had to be sold. They were discounting them massively while at the same time reducing production levels but the cars that are already made still have to be sold.
The discounts were so steep that it even tanked used car prices by 30%.
This went on for maybe a year or so and then long-term things evened backed out.
I'm just explaining this because when you say "it just isn't going to happen", you're quite possibly teeing it up for Trump supporters to crow how you were wrong because meat prices declined for 6 months towards the end of the year before returning to normal.
Please note, I'm making up timeframes as examples and I do not mean to refute what Evilcart is saying quite the opposite actually....just noting there could be a transitory period more notable than they are considering.
the US gov subsidizes our meat producers, they can't DUMP product without Europe and others bringing WTO complaints and those complaints would win.
a whole bunch of folk have said there will be discounts here and there, but Pork is not going to become dirt cheap because we also IMPORT PORK, and those who sell into the US will not stand for US gov subsidized pork selling for cents on the dollar. Instead they will sue the butt out of the US. Thus prices will stay normal but a little cheaper.
Cars are different, the US gov does not provide price insurance nor does it buy up surpluses.
I suggest you spend more time learning how these things work before trying to correct other posters....
The Chinese own several of the American pork producers. Smithfield for one.
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