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The RCP, which uses simple averages of the most recent polls has a slightly higher predictive success rate than Nate Silver's complex formulas and analyses. The 2012 primaries the RCP simple averages did significantly better than Nate Silver.
How can anyone believe the polls after what happened in 2016? All polls were showing Hillary was going to win in a landslide... I wonder if that was part of the Russian Collusion? Putin skewed the polls towards Hillary so her voters would stay home on election day?
The trouble with admitting to people that you like Trump is that you risk being verbally berated and possibly getting beat up by members from the party of diversity, tolerance and heart felt kindness...
It is easier to avoid confrontation by simply saying "Trump?" rolling your eyes and walking away.
Actually the final RCP averaged polls showed Hillary with a slim 272-266 electoral vote advantage. The polls showed a Trump surge after Comey reopened the investigation. The only state that surprised me was Pennsylvania.
The fact is the polls were close. What was off was the media’s reporting. The gap was closing quickly and anyone who observed the polls close could see it.
The polls reflect the money that is running them. Big money likes Trump and would have the public believe Trump has good numbers. I cannot imagine a large number of Americans backing Trump after all his failed promises, backing Putin and Kim Jong Un over American intelligence agencies, being a complete embarrassment to the US, etc. The only way Trump could win is if the elitists buy him in.
The polls reflect the money that is running them. Big money likes Trump and would have the public believe Trump has good numbers. I cannot imagine a large number of Americans backing Trump after all his failed promises, backing Putin and Kim Jong Un over American intelligence agencies, being a complete embarrassment to the US, etc. The only way Trump could win is if the elitists buy him in.
After Putin told the truth about the FBI spying on Trump and our CIA and FBI lying that they weren't, only an insane person would believe the liar when they in fact also knew the truth. Trump is your President until Jan 2025, embrace Orange!
It's all going to come down to the Electoral College. I think the same people that hated Trump before still hate him only more so. I think the same people that loved Trump still do, only more so. I think the difference now is how each side feels about the other side. I think both sides absolutely detest each other with fire. I think if Trump wins re-election, Republicans will quickly run out of fuel to enrage his supporters. That rage is what has kept his poll numbers where they are no matter what he does. With no more Trump elections possible, his supporters will deflate like balloons and the pent up rage of the other side will result in a Republican wipe-out in 2022 and 2024. Trump's polls need outrage the way humans need oxygen.
How can anyone believe the polls after what happened in 2016? All polls were showing Hillary was going to win in a landslide... I wonder if that was part of the Russian Collusion? Putin skewed the polls towards Hillary so her voters would stay home on election day?
The trouble with admitting to people that you like Trump is that you risk being verbally berated and possibly getting beat up by members from the party of diversity, tolerance and heart felt kindness...
It is easier to avoid confrontation by simply saying "Trump?" rolling your eyes and walking away.
Is it really fear? Or maybe ashamed ? Most people don’t go beating others because they voted for the other guy. Like a persecution complex syndrome
It's all going to come down to the Electoral College. I think the same people that hated Trump before still hate him only more so. I think the same people that loved Trump still do, only more so. I think the difference now is how each side feels about the other side. I think both sides absolutely detest each other with fire. I think if Trump wins re-election, Republicans will quickly run out of fuel to enrage his supporters. That rage is what has kept his poll numbers where they are no matter what he does. With no more Trump elections possible, his supporters will deflate like balloons and the pent up rage of the other side will result in a Republican wipe-out in 2022 and 2024. Trump's polls need outrage the way humans need oxygen.
Trump will be re-elected and the Dims will have a chance to make big gains in 2022 and should win 2024 if they don't blow it (which they are more than capable of doing).
Trump has a couple more Supreme Court appointments to make ...Ginsburg and Breyer.
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