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Current clashes have died down. According to NPR: "It's also not clear whether the Kurdish forces are actually withdrawing from the border. Kurdish military leader Mazlum Kobani said Thursday that the forces would comply with the cease-fire, though he did not state whether they planned to move." https://www.npr.org/2019/10/18/77126...g-on-first-day
More:
"Erdogan said it was US's responsibility to ensure YPG fighters withdraw from northeast Syria within the ceasefire period, adding that Turkey aims to establish 12 observation posts in its planned "safe zone" https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/...073856826.html
Elsewhere, Erdogan's made reference to the U.S. needing to make sure that Kurds were out, saying it must keep its "promise." How, though, sure is not clear.
So Turkey is claiming that the US agreed to displace the Kurds. Well either they are lying or Pence has perfected the shart of the deal.
So Turkey is claiming that the US agreed to displace the Kurds. Well either they are lying or Pence has perfected the shart of the deal.
Kurds, meaning YPG forces (Erdogan's reported reference).
According to the written Statement, the US agreed to "the re-collection of YPG heavy weapons and the disablement of the fortifications, and all other fighting positions." https://static.politico.com/c7/db/56...a167e614ea.png
Now how the United States is going to keep to that so-called promise remains to be seen.
Like they say, the devil's in the details. Erdogan according to Al Jazeera is saying that the U.S. promised the Kurdish forces would "withdraw from northeast Syria" ... the Statement reference is to "fighting positions."
A now - so-called former YPG member wants to stay behind with his family? ... well Erdogan has been quite clear throughout this process that the Kurds count as "terrorists."
There's another Statement provision that allows Turkey to: "conduct counter-terrorism operations" to "target terrorists" with this including their "shelters." This does not mean activities against ISIS, which are in a listed in a separate line item.
This Statement was cobbled together quickly with even the covered geographical areas not listed, with their apparent disagreement there. But based on this profoundly confusing document the Kurds are to give up control over some territories that 11,000 died to protect.
Some number probably will refuse to step down by next Tuesday - at which point Erdogan will pronounce himself free to resume the attack. Trump will declare that defensible given the Kurdish-non compliance. There will be no sanctions.
- Putting this so-called cease fire in place without any effective way to monitor it - just put a target on the Kurds' backs.
- Kurdish fighters are to get out of the zone by the deadline or else they become bonafide "terrorist" targets. The Erdogan-Pence Statement says so - with the added bonus of no economic sanctions for any subsequent Turkish action since the Kurds will be in technical violation.
- Turkey says the YPG terrorists are responsible for 16 attacks in the border towns of Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad. Per reporting both out of Beirut and thru CNN: Turkey and/or the Syrian National Army are not allowing the SDF to vacate positions, forcing them to remain within the Zone.
- According to RT News, Kurdish forces who fail to comply with the ultimatum will be "exterminated." Turkey will “crush the heads” of Kurdish militias.
- Kurdish general Mazloum Kobani is reported to be trying to reach Washington to meet with U.S. officials not within the Trump Administration.
And this is the kicker: Erdoğan also wants Assad to vacate Syrian territory to move away from the Turkish border. This he will take up next week with Putin. The outcome of those talks should be interesting.
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