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Republicans peaked in Arizona around 1998-2000. They’ve been on a long, painful slide in this state ever since.
To me, the turning point was Gabby Giffords taking over Jim Kolbe’s old district after 20 years in Republican control. That seemed to just energize the Democrats and the DNC started pouring money into congressional and senate races.
Janet Napolitano’s ascendancy to the governor’s manse was also key. That was a shock, but it definitely threw a lifeline to Arizona Democrats. The Republicans had run the state into the ground and embroiled the state in perpetual scandal.
The speed that this state went from red to deep purple is astonishing. It’s going solidly blue in a decade. And that’s a wonderful thing.
Were there also any shifts in demographics that also accounted for this as well?
As you may know, California's political turning point from a purple to a solidly blue state came in 1994 with Governor Pete Wilson's demonization of immigrants (mostly Latino) in a desparate reelection campaign. He won, but poisoned the well for the CA GOP by antagonizing Latinos and other immigrant groups since.
Last edited by silverkris; 11-30-2019 at 06:46 PM..
Interesting. I have been an IND all my life, but changed my registration to Democratic a couple weeks ago. It was mostly because I wanted to vote in the primary this year as our state might, for the first time, actually affect the outcome of the presidential race Also, I came to the realization that I will never split my vote again like I used to. The Republicans have left me cold with their social conservative agenda in AZ. They have gone off to the far right. I now either vote for the Democrat or not at all in that race if the Dem is a loser. Maricopa County flipped for Sinema and a couple other Dems pretty strongly - the western burbs especially - and like the poster above said, when Maricopa goes it's all over.
I'm debating but I like being an independent voter. The only downside is that I cannot vote in presidential primaries because those are closed. Normal primaries are open. That said I cannot register Republican to be a disapproval vote since it seems like Dr. Ward wants to have no Republican primary citing "the cost". Granted I wish Democrats don't do this also.
Were there also any shifts in demographics that also accounted for this as well?
As you may know, California's political turning point from a purple to a solidly blue state came in 1994 with Governor Pete Wilson's demonization of immigrants (mostly Latino) in a desparate reelection campaign. He won, but poisoned the well for the CA GOP by antagonizing Latinos and other immigrant groups since.
Minor demographic shifts. Truthfully, all we needed was for Latinos to get off their asses and vote. They’ve slacked very badly in voting participation. For years...and it was frustrating as hell. They’re better and more energized now.
We’ve also energized the youth vote by leaps and bounds. Democrats finally started getting people more excited. In the past, most of our Democrats were milquetoast. They were very uninspiring. Then came Jan Napolitano and Gabby Giffords. It was like a ray of light finally coming into the AZ Democratic Party. Had that idiot not shot Gabby, she’d be a senator by now and a rising star as a possible pick to run for President. She was so fricken talented. I just wanna kill the bastard that shot her. Big blow for the AZ Dems.
But still, we’re on the march and we’re ready to take this state over completely if we stay on our present trajectory.
My parents live in Arizona and what I hear from them is that the state is nowhere near blue or even purple for that matter. Anecdotal but I have seen it when I visit them. Take it with a grain of salt.
People overlook the Blue Island of the Southwest, Tucson!
2020 is out of the question. Maybe 2024 Arizona could go blue but wouldn't hold your breath. Arizona's becoming the new Florida. Old folks love the hot dry weather and most of them are probably happy AZ isn't a purple soon to go blue swing state like FL.
Texas will without a doubt go blue before Arizona. Its the primary move-to state for Californians, New Yorkers and lots of other states. It's also got a much higher urban population which is already for the most part blue. All it will take is Trump leaving office and tons of Central/South Americans will pour into Texas. The state will vote blue in 2024. Arizona might take until 2028.
According to a friend who owns a place in one of the miles and miles of mobile home parks outside Yuma, many lock up their places for the summer and return to the Midwest, Montana, Alaska, or wherever they came from until after Christmas.
So though they may have moved to Arizona, they maintain resident status and vote in the states they came from.
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Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj
2020 is out of the question. Maybe 2024 Arizona could go blue but wouldn't hold your breath. Arizona's becoming the new Florida. Old folks love the hot dry weather and most of them are probably happy AZ isn't a purple soon to go blue swing state like FL.
Arizona and Florida arent the same though.
Those older people moving to Florida are from New York, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Louisiana (in that order)
Where as in Arizona, its California, Texas, Washington, Oregon, Colorado(in that order)
Those older people moving to Florida are from New York, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Louisiana (in that order)
Where as in Arizona, its California, Texas, Washington, Oregon, Colorado(in that order)
these people are not ideologically the same.
Arizona is much younger than Florida. The median age in Arizona is younger than the national average. Florida is one of the oldest. The popular notion of old people moving here and dominating politics is not nearly what people think it is. Old voters are significant more because of apathy among younger voters. Arizona would turn sky blue tomorrow if they would vote in the same proportions as their elders.
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Granted I wish Democrats don't do this also.
