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And, objectively, the "market correction" (snicker) is neither severe nor a correction.
Dow Jones -1.39%
NASDAQ +0.01%
S&P 500 -0.82%
Global Dow -2.20%
Dow Jones Utility -2.95%
NYSE Composite -1.33%
NYSE American +0.15%
Russell 2000 -1.43%
PHLX Semiconductor +2.21%
There's no evidence of a correction and the losses are anything but "severe."
Apparently, you don't understand that the Dow Jones is 30 publicly-traded corporations. There are 880,000+ publicly-traded corporations in the US.
So...
30 / 880,000 = 0.0034%
You're in a tizzy panic because the stocks of 0.0034% of publicly-traded corporations took a slight dive?
The S&P 500 is, well, 500 publicly-traded corporations, so...
500 / 880,000 = 0.059%
0.059% of publicly-traded corporations taking -0.82% drop in stock prices is not a sign of recession nor is it a "correction" nor is it "severe."
And for the record, publicly-traded corporations are 3% of all US businesses.
97% of companies in the US are not publicly-traded corporations, are barred by law from selling stocks, and employ 94.6% of the work-force.
Wow, you get my vote for least informed poster.
The curve inverted in 1966. Did you have a recession?
No, and in fact, you were in the middle of what was then the longest economic expansion in history which ended at 106 months.
The curve inverted in 1959. Did you have a recession? Nope.
The curve inverted in 1970. Did you have a recession? Nope.
1974? That's a trick question. You were already in a recession when the yield inverted, so no.
1979? Nope.
2000? Nope.
2006? Nope.
Disinformation/Misinformation.
Actually, it's $1,550,922,884,061, or $1.56 TRILLION (aka sensationalized and hyped by the media as $1.6 TRILLION).
That is the total amount of federal student loans issued from 1976 through 2018.
Anyway, 5.22 Million are currently in default. There are 128 Million households in the US.
That 4% of households. If you think 4% of households is going to crash your economy then you need to REDO FROM START ECONOMICS 101.
Also, 3 Million of that 5.22 Million are age 62 and older or disabled, because Social Security is withholding money for defaulted student loans from 3 Million persons receiving Social Security Retirement or Disability benefits.
Thanks for the nothing-burger just the same.
Not relevant. Delinquencies rise in January because people spent large over the holidays, and I'm guessing those are probably sub-prime auto loans which makes it even less relevant.
So?
You're a 4th Level Economy.
2nd & 3rd Level Economies need manufacturing. There's no evidence 4th or 5th Level Economies do.
Irrelevant.
Sorry, but $1 of imports does not equal $1 of GDP.
$1 of imports generates $6-$22 in GDP. You are better with a trade deficit than without.
The US imported $528 Million in rattan in 2014 generating $4.35 Billion in sales.
Rattan cannot be grown in the US. It can only be imported.
For each $1 of Rattan imports, $8.24 in GDP was generated.
And that's just the sales.
That does not include the GDP generated from port to buyer's residence or place of business.
It does not include the GDP generated by the longshoremen offloading the rattan, the bailors, holding companies, truck companies, workers at warehouses and distribution centers, factories and such.
And what did those workers do with that money? Oh, yeah, that's right, they spent it in your economy driving GDP higher.
You import what you don't have or what is too stupid to do.
You don't have the labor to produce plastic kitchen gadgets and also produce high-tech electronic equipment.
Common sense dictates you send plastic kitchen gadgets to the Philippines, Vietnam or China and you keep the high-tech electronic jobs.
Of course, you would probably do it backwards and send the high-tech jobs to China and keep the plastic kitchen gadgets here.
Retail is not declining.
Brick & Mortar retail is closing, but on-line retail is up.
That is a demographic and cultural change, not an economic change.
You want to round up Generation Y and Z and drive them around in trucks and buses to Brick & Mortar stores and force them at gun-point to shop there, be my guest.
Good luck with that.
I have seen no evidence those farmers were engaged in farming directly affected by tariffs.
If you have evidence, let's see it.
You can start by showing a comparison of filings.
Oh, I forgot....you probably don't understand that people -- including farmers -- file bankruptcies under Chapters 7 and 13.
Farms file bankruptcies under Chapter 12, which is not available to people.
So, these farmers, are the filing personal bankruptcies under Chapters 7 or 13, or farm bankruptcies under Chapter 12?
Don't forget....Chapter 12 also includes fisheries and hatcheries in addition to family farms.
So, are we talking about farms? Or fisheries? Or hatcheries?
Nobody cares what Peter Schiff says.
Where did you get all the faux numbers from? Publicly traded companies employ about 1/3 in the non farm sector.
What made you decide to list the stock market data for the last day only, lol?
Every single recession since the 1950s was preceded by an inversion of the yield curve, with very few false positives.
"This classic sign of pending recession—when short-term government securities offer higher yields than longer-term ones—lingered for a "solid five months" from mid-May to October, according to Luke Tilley, chief economist of Wilmington Trust. It was the first time in years the yield curve had inverted."
No one is "giddy" or "gleeful." Just looking at the facts.
and an actual recession typically happens > 1 year after. Might even be 2. Don't have my economist notes handy right now, though they pointed out the employment figures seemed to be a better indicator.
this is remarkably ignorant of what creates a recession.
If I was actually asserting that then I wouldn’t have made it into a poll question. The whole point of this exercise was to was to gauge the current economic outlook given what happened on Wall Street this week. Based on the results it seems I’m far from the only person here who has a dim outlook.
It’s funny how people are bending over backward to make excuses. You’re probably the same ones who were seeing rainbows and puppy dogs just as the housing market was collapsing in 2007.
There was a recession in 1960, a year after the yield curve inverted in 1959.
There was indeed a recession in 1970. And the yield curve inverted in 1969, not 1970.
The yield curve first inverted in 1973, not 1974. A recession followed in 1974.
Yes, there was a recession in 1980, which closely followed the yield curve inversion of 1979.
Yes, the yield curve inverted in 2000, which was closely followed by a recession in 2001!
And again, the yield curve inverted in 2006, which was followed by a recession which began in 2007!
The one and only case of a yield curve inversion lasting more than a week or two and that was not followed by a recession within about 18 months was the 1966 inversion. That is the only one!
Not only is Mircea making up dates of yield curve inversions, he/she is also completely ignoring recessions which shortly followed the dates he/she even got correct!
I don't think this country goes into a recession until the Fed stops throwing money at the economy or we come up against something like the coronavirus or another environmental issue that money won't be able to save.
A pandemic that gives people bronchitis-like symptoms?
Glad I built that bomb shelter for the end of the world that never happened in 2012.
Google the Black Plague.
I studied public health and epidemiology. The plagues of the historical past were much worse with far higher mortality rates. By comparison, the coronavirus has a mortalility rate guessed at about 3%. The reason statisticians would call it a guess is that there is a strong possiblity the infected numbers are grossly underestimated. This means the actual mortality rate could be less than 1%.
With that said, it's definitely not a flu to be taken lightly. Older adults or those with compromised immune systems are more at risk. However, the impact to the economy does not look good. Hopefully, the hysteria and infection rates will fade by the summer. But for now, it looks best to brace for a recession - memories of 2007-2009.
MY guess is that parts of the economy will be going into a deep but perhaps brief recession due to COVID-19: maybe for 6-12 months. Whether that drags down the rest remains to be seen. But the business cycle is inevitable.
The stock market is not the economy. Recessions are defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
And there is a "lag" between the performance of the financial markets and the general economy; the Great Crash came in the fall of 1929, but two years were to pass before the economy melted down.
and the mongers of fear, socialism, and Government interference NEVER want to address this point when it's raised.
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