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At the end of this summer, I will be very curious to see how the coronavirus stats compare to the following flu stats, from the CDC:
QUOTE FROM LINK BELOW (my italics and emphasis):
"The estimates are jarring: up to 440,000 hospitalized and perhaps as many as 36,000 deaths in the U.S. alone.
"The new coronavirus illness dubbed COVID-19? No, seasonal influenza.
"These are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates of total flu burden in the U.S. for the current season: As of Feb. 22, the CDC estimates there have already been 32 million individuals infected with seasonal flu, 310,000 hospitalizations, and 18,000 deaths, 125 of them in children." [end quote]
Now, I am certainly NOT making light of COVID-19 -- and as I am a senior, I am voluntarily self-isolating -- but the point is that no one knows YET how bad that will be; and my opinion, at THIS point, is that a lot of non-infected people might be in a very bad way for insufficient reason. I hope that there will not be at least 100,000 deaths from this, but I think there will be a lot of politicians who will come under a lot of criticism is there aren't, considering the above and the fact that about 3 million U.S. residents die per year, anyway.
ON EDIT: Link is now down, which I have noticed is happening frequently with these kinds of links.
The easy way to test your hypothesis would be to lift all restrictions and have everyone revert to their 2019 behavior. Then see if only 18,000 people die.
Given that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is so far outpacing that of H1N1, despite the social restrictions in place, I'm not sure why anyone would think the consequences of letting this disease run its course would be less than devastating. There are also health effects to consider beyond death. No one would say polio wasn't all that bad simply because they survived it.
It's a flu bug that kills mostly elderly and those with underlying health conditions. But that's pretty much how all the flu bugs work.
It will be interesting to see just how many die from this virus and compare it to how many die from the regular flu.
Meanwhile, I'm in the San Francisco Bay Area and we're shut pretty much all the way down. We're on our second week of shutdown. Frist week was just mostly people off the streets, no eating in restaurants and bars and no shopping malls, theaters, etc. This week they are ratcheting it up a few notches by closing all Starbucks, most, if not all McDonalds, Peets Coffee, Phillz Coffee, etc. Next they say if anyone is out on non-essential business, they will get a ticket for a few hundred dollars.
One thing for certain, I've not changed any of my outdoor activities since the lockdown has been put into place. I'm still out and about skateboarding, going to pick up food to go at various restaurants and grocery stores. But I have not woke up in the morning with the usual scratching sore throat, or the stuffy nose, or any of those such things that I have been over the past decade or more.
It just goes to show you how many illness's are out there that we come in contact with on a daily basis in our everyday lives. It's hard to imagine actually waking up feeling completely refreshed without any throat, sinus, headache, etc. issues. There's lots of sick and ill people around here and being away from them for going on week 2, it's great to return back to normal. I've not woke up in the mornings feeling this good in years.
Last edited by Ibginnie; 03-23-2020 at 01:15 PM..
Reason: deleted quoted post
New York State has over 20,000 confirmed cases (nearly all in the NYC metro area). This is 10 times the next highest state.
Q-should those in the NYC area be quarantined, and travel out of the area banned in order to contain the spread of the virus, and to "flatten the curve"?
It's a flu bug that kills mostly elderly and those with underlying health conditions. But that's pretty much how all the flu bugs work.
It will be interesting to see just how many die from this virus and compare it to how many die from the regular flu.
1 - the 1918 flu pandemic killed massive numbers of young men from 17-20 - those who qualified for military training.
2 - "counting bodies and cases" will not give you any conclusions since the Flu Vaccine and other measures already build in resistance to the 1918 virus as well as H1N1 (Similar anyway).
3 - NY now says 26% of younger people (under 50) they have tested positive have needed hospitalization.
Viruses mutate. They are a moving target. It may be that H1N1 has mutated over the decades so that it doesn't kill even anti-vaxx types. Also, there is Tamiflu and other things to reduce respiratory distress...which is the part that kills.
Lots of moving parts here and any type of measurements that might be informative will only be possible many years from now.
I don't see what is sad about it. This has zero to do with us getting out of this thing. zero.
And, as you and I both know, something will be passing. Don't you want them to actually read the Bill? I remember complaints about that with the ACA and other legislation.
If this were money to build a manufacturing plant for vaccine or drug production.....and construction couldn't start without the money...then you'd have a point. But still it would be a weak one.
Honest question.
Do you have some savings? Some Credit? Is $1000 going to make a big difference to you today...as opposed to Friday, for example?
I'm honestly interested. I've "lost" so much money in the last month that 1K or 10K wouldn't help me in the least.
1 - the 1918 flu pandemic killed massive numbers of young men from 17-20 - those who qualified for military training.
2 - "counting bodies and cases" will not give you any conclusions since the Flu Vaccine and other measures already build in resistance to the 1918 virus as well as H1N1 (Similar anyway).
3 - NY now says 26% of younger people (under 50) they have tested positive have needed hospitalization.
Viruses mutate. They are a moving target. It may be that H1N1 has mutated over the decades so that it doesn't kill even anti-vaxx types. Also, there is Tamiflu and other things to reduce respiratory distress...which is the part that kills.
Lots of moving parts here and any type of measurements that might be informative will only be possible many years from now.
How many have actually died though from that 26%? This is a very important piece of information that is being left out.
Just like a few weeks ago our local rhetoric radio station was stating that there were "X amount of confirmed cases" in the bay area. Now this same local rhetoric radio station is stating that there were "X amount of known cases" Word games yield different responses.
American's have never been prone to advice which challenges their notions of freedom. This viral pandemic is just more proof of that and should underscore the real problem as one of intelligence VS the lack of it. Years of politically motivated dumbing down of the populace has yielded this kind of paradox, "my freedom" as a challenge to, "our well being."
In one corner we see the pols attempting to get their usual agenda's through the congressional process, all the while facing the specter of transparency ruining that goal. In the other corner, we see the public living in fear and loathing of anyone who may upset their comfort zone routines and feeling "inconvenienced" in those cases wherein some suspect this to be a hoax. It's getting weirder when we see that the entire range of authority in such fields as epidemiology and public health are being overshadowed by our deeply divided political parties.
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