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Old 03-29-2020, 11:01 AM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,887 posts, read 12,918,172 times
Reputation: 19426

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I read on another thread Dr. Fausti predicted 100,000-200,000 American deaths. That's .7%, or less than 1%.

If I knew that was accurate, I'd re-start my regular routine right now. I'm healthy and <60, so at <1%, let's roll.

He's as expert as you get right? I have not heard the scarf-lady (Dr. Birx?) toss out any predictions have you?

 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,944,721 times
Reputation: 14125
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Putting it that way, he and all who believed him and failed to take action because they believed him or his echo chambers are responsible for many many times that amount (will be soon enough).

MANY are still using those talking points to inform their actions and behaviors.

There will be many a history book and medical book written about this down the pike. I hope everyone here is still around to read them.
Yep, Trump and his supporters and the deniers in general are killing people. This is something we knew could happen dating back to the Bush White House and Obama warned us during I think Ebola. Sadly we took Covid-19 as the new SARS. I know I did and I feel stupid I did now. Trump waited longer than I did though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
If all those labs working on a cure and/or vaccine worked together instead of each lab on its own, wouldn't that speed up the whole process a lot? I am not sure we can carry on like this for another 1.5 years.

Maybe we should already think of training people on how to operate farm equipment.
Not really. I think it is better they all have different ideas because what if the one they agree on does not work
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:03 AM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,116 posts, read 16,246,684 times
Reputation: 14408
Quote:
Originally Posted by pbmaise View Post
The sheer stupidity of so many Americans is just incredible.

Gee its my birthday party, lets have a party! March 14th they gathered and now two are already dead from the virus and several are positive. These were guys in their 40's and 50's.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/s...gtype=Homepage

I really really pity the medical teams that have to administer to people like this.

What were you doing on March 14th and what were you doing to make sure you didn't get the virus. These people just were begging for it.
what we know today is WORLDS different than what we knew on March 14th.

If 2 people died 10 days later - then isn't it most likely 1 of those 2 was the party's infector? And that he was likely symptomatic?
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:07 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,701,394 times
Reputation: 14051
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling View Post
If all those labs working on a cure and/or vaccine worked together instead of each lab on its own, wouldn't that speed up the whole process a lot? I am not sure we can carry on like this for another 1.5 years.

Maybe we should already think of training people on how to operate farm equipment.
They are all working together - medicine and physics and science use the internet for instant updating of what works and what does not.

At the same time the problem is this...for a vaccine...

1. You have to guess at some ideas
2. You produce those ideas
3. You give it to animals and then people - volunteers - NOT to see if it works, but more to see if they develop complications (is it safe?)
4. You try it on a select volunteer group of infected patients. These patients then have to be monitored over a few months to see if they recover, what their antibodies are afterward and.or can they be re-infected?

There is only a limited amount of such studies that can go on at one time....so you have to rinse and repeat and start over when the first 10 don't work.

Many of the most famous drugs in history took 600 or more tries. Each had to be isolated and then checked - and then checked again and again.

Example is/was Sulfa drugs - virtually a miracle substance.

" The Bayer team believed that coal-tar dyes which are able to bind preferentially to bacteria and parasites might be used to attack harmful organisms in the body. After years of fruitless trial-and-error work on hundreds of dyes, a team led by physician/researcher Gerhard Domagk[8] (working under the general direction of IG Farben executive Heinrich Hörlein) finally found one that worked: a red dye synthesized by Bayer chemist Josef Klarer that had remarkable effects on stopping some bacterial infections in mice"

In the future we will eventually have enough DNA and science and computing power to perhaps do "virtual tests"...but that day is not here yet. We are using 100 year old technology in the actual human tests...although the science developing the stuff is much more modern.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,116 posts, read 16,246,684 times
Reputation: 14408
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
It isn't the water, it is that it lingers in the air. That and if you looked at the picture I quoted in that post, on the county that was open, it was packed. It was the New York parks where people weren't getting exercise, but rather talked. It was the Arizona trails that are open but every flocks to because they got cabin fever.
there seems to be serious question about thee aerosol (proper word?) effect.

I saw the photo, and clearly they weren't 6 ft + apart. And the 6 ft is related to the chances of contact and the slight aerosol effect (ie a sneeze from within 6 ft can get you, one from 20 ft cannot).

So, WITH social distancing (as I believe I said), what's wrong with the beach?

I'm assuming ALL of those FL beaches have SOME cops that patrol and could pretty easily encourage/enforce social distancing
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:11 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,701,394 times
Reputation: 14051
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoBromhal View Post
what we know today is WORLDS different than what we knew on March 14th.

If 2 people died 10 days later - then isn't it most likely 1 of those 2 was the party's infector? And that he was likely symptomatic?
NO, it is not different.

One had to have their head in the Echo Chamber to not know most everything by March 14th. The ONLY thing we know today is that what normal rational scientific people said on the 14h is TRUE.

We know what State TV and Trump and that crowd was saying is FALSE.

C'mon. Just because I say the world is Flat on the first day of the month doesn't mean it is so...unless certain "sects" believe it.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:14 AM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
25,947 posts, read 24,777,059 times
Reputation: 9728
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
They are all working together - medicine and physics and science use the internet for instant updating of what works and what does not.

At the same time the problem is this...for a vaccine...

1. You have to guess at some ideas
2. You produce those ideas
3. You give it to animals and then people - volunteers - NOT to see if it works, but more to see if they develop complications (is it safe?)
4. You try it on a select volunteer group of infected patients. These patients then have to be monitored over a few months to see if they recover, what their antibodies are afterward and.or can they be re-infected?

There is only a limited amount of such studies that can go on at one time....so you have to rinse and repeat and start over when the first 10 don't work.

Many of the most famous drugs in history took 600 or more tries. Each had to be isolated and then checked - and then checked again and again.

Example is/was Sulfa drugs - virtually a miracle substance.

" The Bayer team believed that coal-tar dyes which are able to bind preferentially to bacteria and parasites might be used to attack harmful organisms in the body. After years of fruitless trial-and-error work on hundreds of dyes, a team led by physician/researcher Gerhard Domagk[8] (working under the general direction of IG Farben executive Heinrich Hörlein) finally found one that worked: a red dye synthesized by Bayer chemist Josef Klarer that had remarkable effects on stopping some bacterial infections in mice"

In the future we will eventually have enough DNA and science and computing power to perhaps do "virtual tests"...but that day is not here yet. We are using 100 year old technology in the actual human tests...although the science developing the stuff is much more modern.
OK, sounds like a tedious process for an urgent situation
At least there should not be any shortage of volunteers, I suppose.
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,116 posts, read 16,246,684 times
Reputation: 14408
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
If you lived in a house with elders and had 20 family nearby as well as friends that you saw regularly and you volunteered down at the Senior Center, etc. etc. etc.

That's where fear comes in.

If I was alone in this world and had my garage and car handy for ending things when I desired, then I'd have less fear than I have now. It's not about me.....but, at the same time, I am not seeing any of my family (90 year old parents, immune compromised others)....at all.

If you are saying that the final mortality, before a vaccine, is not going to be at least 1% then you are simply speaking against all experts. I'll take their word over yours....not a slight on you, but I don't think they teach virology in Marketing (I'm a marketer myself and never had the course).
you think 1% of the world's population will die, unless a vaccine is found? And would this be the polio vaccine (seems 99.9999% effective) or the flu vaccine (67% effective)?
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:16 AM
 
Location: Homeless
17,717 posts, read 13,562,030 times
Reputation: 11994
I wasn’t sure where to ask this but here it goes. Whenever this blows over, what are the odds that those of us who didn’t get tested or get the virus that they will mandate the rest of us get tested before we’re allowed to return to work?
 
Old 03-29-2020, 11:21 AM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
25,947 posts, read 24,777,059 times
Reputation: 9728
Quote:
Originally Posted by reed067 View Post
I wasn’t sure where to ask this but here it goes. Whenever this blows over, what are the odds that those of us who didn’t get tested or get the virus that they will mandate the rest of us get tested before we’re allowed to return to work?
Good question. We feel like we need to settle once and for all who is infected and who isn't. But I don't think that is feasible. One reason being that the test only determines the status of the person a couple of days ago. There will never be a strict separation of clean and contaminated people.
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