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It's under SOME control in California and WA. State and OR and places that started doing the right thing early. They are not going to run out of hospital beds, ventilators and they are on a serious downward slope as far as new infections and deaths.
When it comes to elsewhere in the USA, all bets are off. Alabama and Georgia and some other places are just now starting to be big numbers (per capita, etc.).
I think the only way we can claim "under control" is that we now know if we - as citizens - take individual action (and everyone does!) that we can slow it greatly.
355 new cases in CA and rising? That’s under control? Until we see numbers decking we won’t have anything under control.
My guess is that even our local Virus and Pandemic experts aren't projecting a .6% death among confirmed cases any longer???? I don't see it being repeated..............
That's true. They made a guess and it turned out wrong.
Take it up with one of them.
I expect that eradicating smallpox from the earth was a much more difficult task. Humanity managed to do that anyways. We can get there.
Since my original post almost exactly 24 hours ago, we've gone from having test results from 6,099 tests per million Americans to 6,611 tests per million Americans. This number will increase faster and faster over time. It wasn't too long ago that Trump was bragging about having done 1 million tests. We're now up to 2.1 million of them. Meanwhile, an antibody test is a whole different animal. Much easier to do and should be pretty cheap.
Some Americans are going to want to know whether or not they have the virus right now. Every American is going to want to know whether they had it at some point but didn't realize it. It's also the only way to get accurate information about how widespread the disease actually was.
355 new cases in CA and rising? That’s under control? Until we see numbers decking we won’t have anything under control.
Don't forget to account for the numbers falling off because they have been resolved.
I agree, it's not under control. That's why we're all sitting at home.
Models project best and worst case based on assumptions. The worst case projections assumed no controls and no change in personal behaviors.
The Federal Government issued the distancing and gathering guidelines. Most state responded with Stay at Home orders, controls and changes in personal behaviors. So of course projections have changed.
We watched the videos and the news from Wuhan. We watched Italy. There seems to have been an initial collective failure to imagine, it could happen, here.
True, but the initial, much heralded model that got everyone talking (from Imperial College in London) predicted hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US even if we changed our personal behaviors and instituted controls (which we have not done universally in this country).
Those figures of hundreds of thousands of deaths from Imperial College were the conservative figures, too. If we didn't do anything, the IC model estimated millions of deaths in the US: https://reason.com/2020/03/31/2-2-mi...from-covid-19/
Now, I'm glad that the models may very well end up being wrong (and many are being revised), but the initial figures we saw still predicted many more deaths even if we engaged in all of those controls.
The annoying thing is that the Propaganda Arm of the Democratic Party -- the news media -- is going to flip this. If fewer than 100,000 people die, they're going to start shrieking, "Trump destroyed the economy for nothing!! Traitor!! Impeach him ten more times!!"
What I wouldn't give for a 1000 times more honesty and a 1000 times less bias in the news media.
Few deaths mean the controls sufficiently changed personal behaviors, nothing more or less.
Most states, not the Federal Government, issued the Stay at Home Orders.
It was there - the CIA and most every nation has vast people on the ground...let alone images from Space and everything else. We all knew.....wasn't the entire world watching China?
Of course, you and I assume our national intelligence systems are informing our leaders and that things are getting done....but that is where the problems occurred.
Well, I was thinking more of a public, website-based system where normal doctors report unusual occurrences in a standardized way, like, by filling in a detailed symptom list. If there are several, independently reported cases with more or less identical symptoms in the same area, the automated system would sound an alarm.
He said that it would go back down to 0. Look where we are at now.
And how can you possibly say that you have an outbreak under control that just started? Lmao
He was wrong.
So?
Now that we are doing the right thing, it is saving 10s of thousands of lives. If he hadn't shut everything down you would have a case.
Insisting that everything he said be right at the time and be right forever into the future is absurd.
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