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I can sum up this entire thread in just a few words.
We can rebuild the economy, however long it takes, but if we should die from this virus,, there is no coming back.
The downfall in the economy is temporary, death is permanent.
I doubt it lasts past 4-30 (most restrictions, most states).
NYC metro may wind well into May.
Most corps plan in lengthy cycles. We just redid a Q2 forecast, throughout all our subsidiaries.
We will work on Q3 this week.
As an essential industry business, we are required to do all we can to stay open, and we are going to great lengths to insure we can.
Hospitality, restaurants, retail, entertainment..will be affected far longer than the rest.
We are considered 'essential' too, (gas stations)...the steps I see my company taking right now, suggests they are getting ready to close multiple stores, across a handful of states.
What has me concerned is that they suspended fuel deliveries after mid May, for all stores in my region, (thats about 1500 stores!), I suspect the people at the top of my company are getting 'information' that the rest of us are not. and I can also guarantee, if WE are closing that many stores down...the other top 2 chains will be closing theirs as well.
If the average gas station stopped getting fuel deliveries, they would run dry in about 3-4 days time.
Im still working for now, and I think Im going to try to talk to one of the truck drivers that deliver our fuel this week, Im sure they have some idea whats coming, Im hoping they will be able to tell me something useful.
I'm of the opinion it's time to start reopening America. I think there is enough real-world data to at least start looking at this.
Perhaps a zoned approach would be appropriate based on population density, current infection rates, and risk of future infections. Perhaps keep interstate and international travel to a minimum until a threshold of decreasing infections is met.
We, especially the governors of states, really need to start evaluating actual state-by state results against modeled predictions because we may be shooting ourselves in the foot by creating a one size fits all risk profile. The predictions seem to get less dire every week as real-world data is fed into the models. Really, I don't trust the models, their base assumptions, or the data being fed into them. If they are using the same type of model they used to predict global warming results, then I really give them very little credence. Governors should look at the actual, discernible patterns within their state and auditors need to be evaluating data for accuracy. For example, not everyone with CV dies from CV, but their deaths are being attributed to the virus and that is erroneously driving up the death rate.
Manufacturing is ramping up for PPE, distribution lines are sound thanks to our not so crumbling infrastructure. The malaria drug looks more and more promising every day. How are those conditions presented to the predictive models? Are they even used?
Has our fear of contracting the virus been used to shape a political outcome? I'm all about erring on the side of safety, but ruining the economy of the US with this near total shutdown is not a smart move for any political party. We need to get the nation off of its knees.
I'm thinking we should start looking at it. What do you think? Still too early?
It's definitely too early. We haven't even started to suffer yet. We are all in for one heck of a ride!
We are considered 'essential' too, (gas stations)...the steps I see my company taking right now, suggests they are getting ready to close multiple stores, across a handful of states.
What has me concerned is that they suspended fuel deliveries after mid May, for all stores in my region, (thats about 1500 stores!), I suspect the people at the top of my company are getting 'information' that the rest of us are not. and I can also guarantee, if WE are closing that many stores down...the other top 2 chains will be closing theirs as well.
If the average gas station stopped getting fuel deliveries, they would run dry in about 3-4 days time.
Im still working for now, and I think Im going to try to talk to one of the truck drivers that deliver our fuel this week, Im sure they have some idea whats coming, Im hoping they will be able to tell me something useful.
WFH would crush your industry. Most in NY metro are working at home, amongst the professionals.
I'm of the opinion it's time to start reopening America. I think there is enough real-world data to at least start looking at this.
Perhaps a zoned approach would be appropriate based on population density, current infection rates, and risk of future infections. Perhaps keep interstate and international travel to a minimum until a threshold of decreasing infections is met.
We, especially the governors of states, really need to start evaluating actual state-by state results against modeled predictions because we may be shooting ourselves in the foot by creating a one size fits all risk profile. The predictions seem to get less dire every week as real-world data is fed into the models. Really, I don't trust the models, their base assumptions, or the data being fed into them. If they are using the same type of model they used to predict global warming results, then I really give them very little credence. Governors should look at the actual, discernible patterns within their state and auditors need to be evaluating data for accuracy. For example, not everyone with CV dies from CV, but their deaths are being attributed to the virus and that is erroneously driving up the death rate.
Manufacturing is ramping up for PPE, distribution lines are sound thanks to our not so crumbling infrastructure. The malaria drug looks more and more promising every day. How are those conditions presented to the predictive models? Are they even used?
Has our fear of contracting the virus been used to shape a political outcome? I'm all about erring on the side of safety, but ruining the economy of the US with this near total shutdown is not a smart move for any political party. We need to get the nation off of its knees.
I'm thinking we should start looking at it. What do you think? Still too early?
We are considered 'essential' too, (gas stations)...the steps I see my company taking right now, suggests they are getting ready to close multiple stores, across a handful of states.
What has me concerned is that they suspended fuel deliveries after mid May, for all stores in my region, (thats about 1500 stores!), I suspect the people at the top of my company are getting 'information' that the rest of us are not. and I can also guarantee, if WE are closing that many stores down...the other top 2 chains will be closing theirs as well.
If the average gas station stopped getting fuel deliveries, they would run dry in about 3-4 days time.
Im still working for now, and I think Im going to try to talk to one of the truck drivers that deliver our fuel this week, Im sure they have some idea whats coming, Im hoping they will be able to tell me something useful.
I have talked to a local Mgr. of a large east coast chain. He has seen a drop in demand for both gas and diesel (stay ay home working). The inside part of the business (hot food, beer, snacks, and tobacco) have increased.
I could see stores closing temporally if they do not have a convenience store attached.
So you don't trust the entire scientific community then if you don't trust global warming data.
Why the hell should anyone take you seriously?
I don't trust their models. Garbage in = garbage out. Also, they seem to latch onto the worst possible scenario that fits their political agenda and presents it as the most likely outcome for any issue.
Here is an "AI" prediction from Feb 5th.
"AI Predicts Coronavirus Could Infect 2.5 Billion And Kill 53 Million."
Total BS. And any politician who wants to collect and redistribute money based on this mess can kiss my backside.
As days pass, we see the death rate predicted by contagion progression models fall farther and farther away from reality. One of the base assumptions coded into the models is that each of us has the same likelihood of being infected. Total BS. Already, you have garbage built-in to a predictive platform that is simply not true.
We need the antibody test. Anybody who has antibodies should be allowed to go back to work. Wear a mask at work as an added, but likely unnecessary, precaution.
We don't all have the same situation that exists in the infection epicenters.
I am going back to work tomorrow.
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