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Status:
"Smartened up and walked away!"
(set 29 days ago)
11,799 posts, read 5,804,343 times
Reputation: 14224
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We actually have no idea what the morality rate really is. There have been states under reporting it - then there are states that have been over reporting it and have marked every death as a Covid death even though the patient was never tested for Covid.
If people lived in areas that shut down too late, like NYC, they'd better understand how serious it is.
We knew that if we did the right thing, people would complain. They don't see the impact because social distancing thwarted a huge wave in their region. Look at NYC vs SF, or Boston vs. Seattle. SF shut down early, and despite also being incredibly dense, it didn't become NYC. Boston and DC shut down around the same time, but Boston had a superspreader event at the end of February where 100 people went home to the suburbs, to their offices, to restaurants, and on public transit and spread practically exponentially. We couldn't have shut down before that happened, but we should have shut down earlier and Massachusetts won't be the 15th state by population but the 3rd state by cases and deaths.
The density, closeness of people, in SF is nowhere near NYC. Also theres a different mindset regarding courtesy and space. SF is like "thank you, have a nice day". NYC especially Brooklyn is like "f*** you!". "Yeah? Your mother!".
Only speaking for myself, I hope that its true. I hope the death rate is that low or even lower. I think we did the right thing as a nation. If someone puts a gun to your head and tells you to hand over your cash and keys there is the possibility that the gun has no bullets, the gun is broken or that the robber really is not going to shoot you for your items.
When the virus broke out, it was a robber with a gun to our heads. No one but the robber knew exactly what the robber was capable of doing. We choose not to gamble with the lives of Americans. I am proud that the nation made that choice. That is a choice I will tell any and all loved ones to make, when being robbed. Make the choice of life....over things. Things can be replaced....lives cannot.
Status:
"Smartened up and walked away!"
(set 29 days ago)
11,799 posts, read 5,804,343 times
Reputation: 14224
Quote:
Originally Posted by charolastra00
Just running the numbers on NYC, which has the largest antibody test programs in the country, based on the most recent hypothesis of 19.9% of NYC residents having been infected, the death rate is .9%.
In the highest recent year of data reported (2017), 1,433 died of the flu in Massachusetts. We're at over 6000 deaths in a little more than 2 months now... and that's with a shut down.
And 3,807 of those were in long term care facilities and 98.2% of the deaths had underlying issues. Was Covid the actual killer or was it because someone's kidneys were already failing and they just happened to test positive for Covid which then their death would be marked down as a Covid death.
We will never have a real number of how many died of Covid because everyone's numbers are so skewed on how they were recorded.
The density, closeness of people, in SF is nowhere near NYC. Also theres a different mindset regarding courtesy and space. SF is like "thank you, have a nice day". NYC especially Brooklyn is like "f*** you!". "Yeah? Your mother!".
Explain Boston versus any other large city with public transit. Seattle (which closed early and has done well despite an outbreak), DC, even Chicago. I was very hopeful when reading about Seattle's "Seattle chill" helping keep their spread low, but by all measures that should have repeated in Boston. Instead, we had cases spinning off in every direction for weeks.
And 3,807 of those were in long term care facilities and 98.2% of the deaths had underlying issues. Was Covid the actual killer or was it because someone's kidneys were already failing and they just happened to test positive for Covid which then their death would be marked down as a Covid death.
We will never have a real number of how many died of Covid because everyone's numbers are so skewed on how they were recorded.
"Underlying conditions" can mean high blood pressure (almost 50% of the US), obesity (I mean, look around), heart disease, and other things that people can manage for decades.
I'm a 9 year cancer survivor, but if I died, I would be considered a "pre-existing condition" despite being perfectly healthy today. Normal blood pressure, great bloodwork, low heart rate thanks to cardio... you wouldn't know I had been sick once upon a time. Hell, I remember reading about a 32 or 33 year old guy who died where people passed him off because he had cancer cured by surgery as a kid 20 years before.
It's easy to think it won't happen to you if you can other someone.
I never said it didn't mostly impact elderly, but are we just going to stop admitting people over 60 to hospitals? If our hospitals, including most on-site surge capacity and no other surgeries, were overwhelmed with less than 10% of the population impacted, what would happen if we just opened up and let it sweep through our elderly?
it is significantly higher than the flu we have now.
It is nowhere near the Spanish flu. Nowhere. the 1918 outbreak may have been 300 times more deadly than this flu.
depending on treatment and location the death rates for those infected was between 19% and 35%
stop being hyperbolic. you are as bad as those saying this is common cold.
Am I though? Do you understand the concept of an analogy? Apparently not. It's not meant to be taken literally. The point is that this pandemic would be more deadly given a lack of medical facilities and treatments. Likewise, the 1918 pandemic would be much less deadly now, given the advancements in medical techniques.
Read:
Quote:
...a 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene, all exacerbated by the recent war, promoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed.
The infection fatality ratio is irrelevant, except in context of the number of infections. 200,000 deaths is not just another flu season.
# of infections x mortality rate = # of deaths
The only thing that's changed is we found out many more people have been infected. That doesn't change the # of deaths, which is the only thing that really matters.
No, but it changes the percentage of people who die from the infection, ie, the death rate.
The math reads:
, #of deaths directly due to covid9 infection/
total number of those diagnosed with the infection.
This includes those who have test positive for covid 19 but either have a mild illness or are asymptomatic. I expect the death rate will decrease more as testing for the virus continues among the population.
I didn't say the virus has a .1% mortality rate. The truth is, no one knows the mortality rate. And you don't either, so you can't possibly say for certain the virus has a greater mortality rate than .1%. You're just making an uneducated guess based on garbage you've heard on CNN from Greta Thunberg and other "experts".
No, it’s based on statistics in New York City. You are just blinded by partisan bs and can’t see those statistics alone tell you the death rate is greater than .1%. I guess I should counter with a Fox comment but I won’t stoop to that level.
A .1% death rate would mean a mere 264000 deaths with 80% of population infected. I wish.
We actually have no idea what the morality rate really is. There have been states under reporting it - then there are states that have been over reporting it and have marked every death as a Covid death even though the patient was never tested for Covid.
In NYC between March 11!and May 2 there were 18700 deaths attributed to Covid but 24000 deaths more than expected. Most likely undercount of Covid deaths
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