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The CNN story buries the lead. The headline is that 35% of carriers do not have symptoms.
You have to get into the article to read that the CDC estimates that the mortality rate for symptomatic carriers is only .4%.
Most Americans get their news via clickbait, they don't read into articles. That is why the slicing and dicing media does these days is so dishonest.
At least you proved all the doubters of the mortality rate on here wrong though.
So thank you for that!
Every person has a different idea of what the lead should be, yours is not inherently right. The .4% is not the fatality rate, it is one of the numbers they are using to model outcomes.
We will not know what the numbers are until it is all over. .4% is 4x as deadly as the flu, so... yay? Granted it is better than 10x.
Understand, studies are ALL over the place. Not for nefarious reasons, but becuase this is a disease that has been around for 5 months. And we are one of the worst countries in how we dealt with it, and we shouldn't be. But it is what it is, hopefully we can do better moving forward.
The CDC has been a hot mess, so I'm not sure why you think so highly of them.
Use information such as your original link, as someone's best guess, because that is all it is. Then look at the 500 other best guesses, and pick the average.
IMO, if correct, 35% asymptomatic is much more important, than the .4% fatality rate.
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The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.
Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomaticcases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.
More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.
The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.
Wonderful news and exactly what I'd expected. I also expect the lefties to and balk all over this one. Let's see how it shakes out...
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Originally Posted by zentropa
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Originally Posted by EddieB.Good
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Originally Posted by bmccormick71
So Trumpy-pumpkins was right but didn’t stick to his guns and allowed himself to be fooled by the deep state globalist Bill Gates Soros mind control chemtrail Illuminati?
WEAK
I find this interesting, considering how every other country except Russia, has a death rate in line with what the experts said... Somewhere around 6-10x the normal flu death rate.
Somehow, NYC has a death rate in line with the rest of the world, but not the rest of the US, despite the being the epicenter.
But somehow you found data that says the US, except NYC, has a fraction of the deaths per capital, than every other country.
Either you're lying or you're misreading your data.
I don't think you actually opened the link. The thread title is a lie.
So you trying to tell me the narrative for Death Rates due to Covie-19 in the United States of America are NOT misrepresented by the Media?
Sell it somewhere else. I know better.
This is from a local newspaper in Pueblo County Colorado...
"Pueblo County Coroner Brian Cotter said Monday that none of the 14 deaths related to COVID-19 in Pueblo county were caused solely by the virus itself."
This has been posted several times but the OP is of the belief that these "theories" should be all over the news because they believe they are right....
Every person has a different idea of what the lead should be, yours is not inherently right. The .4% is not the fatality rate, it is one of the numbers they are using to model outcomes.
Now who isn't reading their own articles?
It is not "one of the numbers", it is the CDC's "best estimate", according to what you - yourself posted:
The CDC also says its “best estimate” is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die
Why is it liberals always do what they accuse others of doing?
It is not "one of the numbers", it is the CDC's "best estimate", according to what you - yourself posted:
The CDC also says its “best estimate” is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die
Why is it liberals always do what they accuse others of doing?
Dunno. I'm still a registered Repulican. Though I have absolutely no idea what political party you belong would have to do with this.
I sympathize, it must be hard turning everything into a political battle and seeing conspiracies everywhere.
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Except there isn't an ounce of data to show the lockdowns had anything to do with the velocity of infections.
There have been several studies now conveying that lockdown states had no causality when it came to lower death rates.
In fact, many times the lockdown states had higher death rates than the states that remained more or less open.
The term "lockdown" is a misnomer as some people were still working as necessary in high impact states. I've read a number of infectious disease experts and most would agree that closing businesses and schools, stay at home orders and avoiding public events reduced the mortality rate greatly. It is estimated that NY had anywhere from 10-20% infection rate, I can just imagine what the hospitals would look like it they treated this like some other states. I would like to see that study you quoted.
Many variables between states, not a good analogy to compare low density states to the tri-state area.
We do need to gradually increase the infection rate in a graduated and considerate fashion so that it doesn't overwhelm the health care system.
Last edited by Goodnight; 05-25-2020 at 05:54 PM..
Every person has a different idea of what the lead should be, yours is not inherently right. The .4% is not the fatality rate, it is one of the numbers they are using to model outcomes.
We will not know what the numbers are until it is all over. .4% is 4x as deadly as the flu, so... yay? Granted it is better than 10x.
Understand, studies are ALL over the place. Not for nefarious reasons, but becuase this is a disease that has been around for 5 months. And we are one of the worst countries in how we dealt with it, and we shouldn't be. But it is what it is, hopefully we can do better moving forward.
The CDC has been a hot mess, so I'm not sure why you think so highly of them.
Use information such as your original link, as someone's best guess, because that is all it is. Then look at the 500 other best guesses, and pick the average.
IMO, if correct, 35% asymptomatic is much more important, than the .4% fatality rate.
The WSJ did an excellent snapshot comparing 2009 H1N1 to flu epidemic to COVID-19.
First 102 days of the H1N1 flu 43,677 illnesses 302 deaths, 22 fewer days COVID-19 had 11 times as many infections and deaths that were 60 times greater.
Those that are hospitalized for the flu average around 3 days, study of Seattle Hospitals indicated median hospital stay was 12 days vs 9 days in ICU and 10 days on a ventilator.
The term "lockdown" is a misnomer as some people were still working as necessary in high impact states.
Yes, it is. You can certainly characterize it as Propaganda & Disinformation.
Shut-down is better, but not entirely accurate.
No one was forced to stay in their home, although, granted, there wasn't much to do.
To me, the scary part was people couldn't figure out what to do at home.
I got my hair cut. Of course, the same guy has been cutting my hair for 12 years now. He did private appointments in-home (and at a discount).
That's entrepreneurship.
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Originally Posted by Goodnight
I've read a number of infectious disease experts and most would agree that closing businesses and schools, stay at home orders and avoiding public events reduced the mortality rate greatly.
Yes, it did.
In Euro-States, which were inadequately funded and under-staffed, they got swamped early-on and never really recovered.
At that point, all you can do is triage.
You got 5 people, one ventilator, you just pick one who has the best chance at life and tell the other 4 to go over in that corner and die quietly.
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Originally Posted by Goodnight
It is estimated that NY had anywhere from 10-20% infection rate, I can just imagine what the hospitals would look like it they treated this like some other states. I would like to see that study you quoted.
Many variables between states, not a good analogy to compare low density states to the tri-state area.
Yes, which is why everyone needs to be careful with comparisons.
Some moron thought a rancher in Wyoming riding the range on his horse checking fences was somehow commuting to an office and in contact with 150+ people every day.
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Originally Posted by Goodnight
We do need to gradually increase the infection rate in a graduated and considerate fashion so that it doesn't overwhelm the health care system.
That is a concern.
From the numbers, only a small fraction of Americans were exposed.
The virus will spread all Summer, although at a much slower rate and never go away.
Because it is approaching Winter in Australia, Africa and South America, it will ramp up there and spread over the next 5 months then they'll bring back into the US and here we go again.
Can't be shutting down the economy every 6 months.
I just hope governors have a plan to efficiently utilize their medical resources.
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Originally Posted by ohhwanderlust
Something interesting I saw someone else write regarding the "low" death rates:
That's good stuff.
COVID-19 isn't Leukemia and it isn't a traffic accident.
You can walk around knowing or not knowing you have Leukemia with no impact on others.
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and balk all over this one. Let's see how it shakes out...
