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Old 02-17-2022, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
26,165 posts, read 13,144,578 times
Reputation: 19658

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
I’ll give you this - you have correctly identified the fact that Presidents, and government in general, can’t do much to control the economy. Recessions, stock markets, unemployment should not be blamed or credited to the President.

What the Fed should do is follow up with more interest rate hikes until inflation comes back down to reasonable territory. Rescind the Trump tax cuts to ameliorate effects on the deficit. As you said, tax increases slow economic growth, which is our problem right now. Inflation = too much growth.
Thx for your thoughts. This time is unusual in that we have 40-year high inflation rates, but only modest GDP growth. If we raise interest rates, we could push the economy into a recession.

The federal government can do a lot to impact the economy, but it doesn't happen fast, & the President alone can't do anything. Its takes the Fed, Congress, and the President all working together, & a lot of patience.

Government is consuming too much of Americas financial resources, leaving the private sector unable to fuel economic growth. Government doesnt grow GDP, only the private sector can, but when government is consuming to much of the resources, the private sector is starved.

Look at the chart at the top right of this link below, and this only takes us through 2018...pre-pandemic spending spree. Right now, Government likely spends >50% of total GDP, leaving the private sector<50% to generate growth. That is why our GDP growth has become anemic.

Biden promised not to raise taxes on those earning <$400k, which is 98.2% of American workers. Taxing the remaining 1.8% wont make a debt in our deficit or debt. If we raise taxes on corporations, they'll increase prices on goods and services which fuels more inflation.
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Old 02-17-2022, 01:36 PM
 
13,849 posts, read 5,051,914 times
Reputation: 9884
Quote:
Originally Posted by albert648 View Post
Uh no. Giving more money to the Federal Government to invariably **** away solves absolutely nothing. The Feds need to cut spending and they need to do it yesterday.

Let's start with a 50% budget cut and a 50% tax cut to go with it.
Fine. Should we cut everyone's Social Security check in half, or kick half the people off SS? Kick half the people off Medicare or double their premiums? Should we close half of all military bases, and mothball 50% of our naval fleet? Or is there a different approach? I'm open.
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Old 02-17-2022, 01:38 PM
 
8,181 posts, read 2,820,666 times
Reputation: 6016
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
Fine. Should we cut everyone's Social Security check in half, or kick half the people off SS? Kick half the people off Medicare or double their premiums? Should we close half of all military bases, and mothball 50% of our naval fleet? Or is there a different approach? I'm open.
Terminate every government program that fails to meet initial baseline expectations and only continue to exist because Government. Bureaucracies don't get to continue existing because bureaucracy.

Going forward, all government programs must apply for funding every fiscal year and funding should only be doled out in quarterly tranches contingent on meeting milestones or satisfactory progress.

That alone should cut 70% out of the budget.
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Old 02-17-2022, 02:50 PM
 
13,849 posts, read 5,051,914 times
Reputation: 9884
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
Thx for your thoughts. This time is unusual in that we have 40-year high inflation rates, but only modest GDP growth. If we raise interest rates, we could push the economy into a recession.

The federal government can do a lot to impact the economy, but it doesn't happen fast, & the President alone can't do anything. Its takes the Fed, Congress, and the President all working together, & a lot of patience.

Government is consuming too much of Americas financial resources, leaving the private sector unable to fuel economic growth. Government doesnt grow GDP, only the private sector can, but when government is consuming to much of the resources, the private sector is starved.

Look at the chart at the top right of this link below, and this only takes us through 2018...pre-pandemic spending spree. Right now, Government likely spends >50% of total GDP, leaving the private sector<50% to generate growth. That is why our GDP growth has become anemic.

Biden promised not to raise taxes on those earning <$400k, which is 98.2% of American workers. Taxing the remaining 1.8% wont make a debt in our deficit or debt. If we raise taxes on corporations, they'll increase prices on goods and services which fuels more inflation.
Four points:

1 - No link to the chart you referenced
2 - GDP increased 5.7% in 2021, hardly anemic
3 - That 1.8% of workers earn a lot more than 1.8% of the income. probably more like 20%
4 - Biden may have promised, but I don't think that was such a good idea. The tax cuts of 2017 were not needed, so they should be rescinded for everybody.

Of course, the tax cut act of 2017 was written so that the tax cuts to individuals will expire in 2025 anyway. Only the corporate tax cuts were permanent.
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Old 02-17-2022, 02:51 PM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
26,165 posts, read 13,144,578 times
Reputation: 19658
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
Fine. Should we cut everyone's Social Security check in half, or kick half the people off SS? Kick half the people off Medicare or double their premiums? Should we close half of all military bases, and mothball 50% of our naval fleet? Or is there a different approach? I'm open.
Answer: The Penny Plan...cut EVERYTHING by the same percentage year after year, until the debt bcomes manageable for the next generation. I think cutting it by just 3%/year for the next 7 years while also balancing the budget every year, will make a nice dent in the debt.
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Old 02-17-2022, 02:56 PM
 
13,849 posts, read 5,051,914 times
Reputation: 9884
Quote:
Originally Posted by albert648 View Post
Terminate every government program that fails to meet initial baseline expectations and only continue to exist because Government. Bureaucracies don't get to continue existing because bureaucracy.

Going forward, all government programs must apply for funding every fiscal year and funding should only be doled out in quarterly tranches contingent on meeting milestones or satisfactory progress.

That alone should cut 70% out of the budget.
Not sure I get it:

"Terminate every government program that fails to meet initial baseline expectations"

So what are the initial baseline expectations for the US Army? If they fail to meet it, can we terminate the entire army?

So what are the initial baseline expectations for Social Security? If it fails to meet it, can we terminate Social Security? I think you're going to have a lot of pissed off retirees and soon-to-be retirees.

Outside of SS, Medicare and the military, you could terminate every single program and it wouldn't come close to your dream of a 50% budget cut.
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Old 02-17-2022, 02:57 PM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
26,165 posts, read 13,144,578 times
Reputation: 19658
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
Four points:

1 - No link to the chart you referenced
2 - GDP increased 5.7% in 2021, hardly anemic
3 - That 1.8% of workers earn a lot more than 1.8% of the income. probably more like 20%
4 - Biden may have promised, but I don't think that was such a good idea. The tax cuts of 2017 were not needed, so they should be rescinded for everybody.

Of course, the tax cut act of 2017 was written so that the tax cuts to individuals will expire in 2025 anyway. Only the corporate tax cuts were permanent.
Sorry, here's the link..just check out the chart at the top right

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Govern..._United_States

The reason for decent GDP right now is because of pent up demand from 2 years of being shut down. that will pass, and we'll be back at 1%-2%...anemic.

Taxing the rich reaches a point where they rebel, and leave. It hapened not long ago in France. They also stop investing here, and invest elsewhere. We are in a global economy now, so rich and companies can up and move their ops easily.

Corporations do not pay taxes in the long run anyways...they just jack up their prices to recoup it all. I know becauae I'm the principal in a Corp, & I set pricing. Taxes are just another expense like office suplies. I dont make a penny less no matter how much taxes go up...I just jack prices, and customers pay all the "corp taxes".
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Old 02-17-2022, 02:58 PM
 
30,268 posts, read 18,822,001 times
Reputation: 21166
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
#1 Interest payments on our national debt will slowly rise by $150,000,000,000, as new debt is issued at the new higher rate, & as short-term debt is moved to long-term debt.

So what?

Well, to pay for the newly added interest expense, we can:

A) cut spending by $150 Billion to offset this new added expense

B) raise taxes to pay for it, which slows economic growth

C) print more Monopoly money, adding to our money supply aka "M1"


If we choose A), cut spending, where will Congress cut $150B from? Is Congress even capable of cutting $150B in spending?

If we choose B), raise taxes, Biden will have to renig on his promise not to raise taxes on people who make <$400k. 99.38% of Americans make <$400k, which leaves only .62% of Americans to increase taxes on to get the $150B from. Or, they can increase corporate taxes, which causes corporations to raise prices, which increases inflation.

If we choose C), printing more Monopoly money, it will fuel even more inflation:

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-h...amples-3306097

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/7...ses-inflation/

What should the Fed, Congress, and Joe Biden do, and why?


Interest rates will be higher?
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Old 02-17-2022, 02:59 PM
 
Location: Long Island
57,404 posts, read 26,416,324 times
Reputation: 15709
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
I’ll give you this - you have correctly identified the fact that Presidents, and government in general, can’t do much to control the economy. Recessions, stock markets, unemployment should not be blamed or credited to the President.

What the Fed should do is follow up with more interest rate hikes until inflation comes back down to reasonable territory. Rescind the Trump tax cuts to ameliorate effects on the deficit. As you said, tax increases slow economic growth, which is our problem right now. Inflation = too much growth.
Very true but the voters need to blame someone and presidents like to take credit but not blame.

We used up the Tax Cut tool in 2017, it should have been saved for a rainy day like now.

The rapid increase from rising demand for goods is driving inflation, many shortages and high demand.
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Old 02-17-2022, 03:01 PM
 
13,849 posts, read 5,051,914 times
Reputation: 9884
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
Answer: The Penny Plan...cut EVERYTHING by the same percentage year after year, until the debt bcomes manageable for the next generation. I think cutting it by just 3%/year for the next 7 years while also balancing the budget every year, will make a nice dent in the debt.
This is reasonable. 3% doesn't seem like so much to swallow. I don't have great hope for it though, because I've never seen a single major government program that actually cut its budget. Usually when they talk of cuts, they mean less increase than they asked for.
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