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Why would I even want someone to give their take on "how this information is being misused," when they refuse to acknowledge -- actually, they outright deny -- the fact that currently, about 9 out of every 10 Covid deaths in the UK are vaccinated?
No good-faith conversation ever starts with, "before we discuss this, you must agree with me to sweep this glaring fact looking both of us in the face under the rug."
Anyone attempting to extrapolate importance from a 3 week window featuring <5K deaths in a country the size of the UK, which has experienced 161K+ deaths, is unserious. Full stop.
4,883 people died with 28 days of positive COVID-19 test between week 4 2022 and week 7 2022.
4,302 of those were jabbed.
4302 / (4883 - 22 unlinked persons) = 89%
And when one sees that data, the first thought should be about what other factors need to be considered in order to properly interpret and analyze it.
Table 13 in your link shows:
- If you were over 80 you were 2.3x more likely to die if unvaccinated.
- Age 70 to 79 you were 4x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 60 to 69 you were 3.4x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 50 to 59 you were 4.4x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 40 to 49 you were 3.2x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 30 to 39 you were 7x more likely to die if unvaccinated
Anyone attempting to extrapolate importance from a 3 week window featuring <5K deaths in a country the size of the UK, which has experienced 161K+ deaths, is unserious. Full stop.
What do you think the actual percentage is, then (since you're so convinced that this sample doesn't tell us anything)? Is it low enough that you're taking my under 8.5 (out of 10) at even odds?
In the table (12a) that you noted in the OP, it shows that the vast majority of deaths were people over 80 and almost all of the deaths were people over 70. That age group has an extremely high rate of vaccination. That age group is also of course much more likely to die period.
Table 13 in the link shows that in every age cohort there was a much higher rate of death for the unvaccinated group.
It shows:
- If you were over 80 you were 2.3x more likely to die if unvaccinated.
- Age 70 to 79 you were 4x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 60 to 69 you were 3.4x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 50 to 59 you were 4.4x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 40 to 49 you were 3.2x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 30 to 39 you were 7x more likely to die if unvaccinated
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tsitsipas
Did you see table 13 from the OP's link? It shows the unvaccinated were far more likely to die across every age group.
This thread is actually a scary example of how challenging it is to communicate complex information. The link provided in the OP is 58 pages long, I bet almost no one responding here read it in its entirety. At first, I just went to table 12a because the OP stated that was where to find the 89% figure.
Then some of the posts here inspired me go back to the document and read more of it. That's when I found table 13, which shows a clear difference in death rate between those who were vaccinated and those who were not. If we are supposed to find table 12a meaningful, shouldn't we assign the same credibility to table 13 from the very same document?
Thank you for your posts in this thread.
I find it very telling that certain posters refuse to acknowledge them.
It is, in fact, statistics. Period. The fact that you think statistics and arithmetic are mutually exclusive is prima facie evidence that you don't know what statistics are. It may be a fact that 89% of recent Covid deaths in the UK had taken at least one Covid shot. The 89% was arrived at by doing arithmetic. It's also a statistic. It's also a statistic the OP is trying to use to make the case that Covid shots don't work and should be abandoned. Let me help. As the percentage of the population who have had a Covid shot increases, the percentage of those who haven't decreases. Eventually, when 100% of the population has been vaccinated, 100% of people who die of Covid will have been vaccinated. This doesn't mean that the shot doesn't work, it simply means it isn't 100% effective. Nobody ever claimed it was. To say that any solution that isn't 100% successful is completely ineffective and should be discarded is illogical. Ironically, it was the OP who is guilty of obfuscation via misuse of statistics.
The entire country has bee vaccinated, and death rates are low.
All restrictions are now long gone.
As for those dying who have been vaccinated many are vulnerable groups such as those with immune problems, lung disease, heart disease, cancer patients, the elderly etc etc.
Those who belong to vulnerable groups are also more susceptible to flu and other infections, and have a higher death rate even if administered vaccines.
There are millions and millions of such people in most countries.
As for vaccines they increase survival rates, but do not stop people from contracting viruses, nor do they fully protect those who are weakened through illness or age.
As for those who haven't received the vaccine they tend to be young and fit, and include the vast majority of under 12's without medical conditions, and the reason they were not given the vaccine is because it's not deemed necessary. However Children under 12 who are vulnerable through illness will be given the vaccine.
And when one sees that data, the first thought should be about what other factors need to be considered in order to properly interpret and analyze it.
Table 13 in your link shows:
- If you were over 80 you were 2.3x more likely to die if unvaccinated.
- Age 70 to 79 you were 4x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 60 to 69 you were 3.4x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 50 to 59 you were 4.4x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 40 to 49 you were 3.2x more likely to die if unvaccinated
- Age 30 to 39 you were 7x more likely to die if unvaccinated
To get to Table 13, you have to realize they're estimating the number of vaccinated (3 doses here) vs unvaccinated.
Point 1:
Quote:
The rates are calculated per 100,000 in people who have received either 3 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine or in people who have not received a COVID-19 vaccine. These figures are updated each week as
the number of unvaccinated individuals and individuals vaccinated with 3 doses in the population changes.
For whatever reason, they're leaving out 1 dose, 2 dose persons.
Since they're estimating the number of people who got the vaccine, from that they are estimating unvaccinated. Total Population - {sums of vaccinated, all of which are estimations).
Now, they specifically admit their estimations for the vaccinated are prone to overestimations:
Quote:
NIMS may over-estimate denominators in some age groups, for example because people are
registered with the NHS but may have moved abroad.
Which means their denominators for the unvaccinated would be prone to underestimations.
This leads to the funky, and obviously wrong data.
Why would 30-39 be 7x more likely to die, compared to just 3.2 in the 40-49 age bracket?
This is why figure 12 is better. There is less estimation. They know precisely the number of hospital patients who are vaccinated or not, and when they don't they state it ('unlinked' - which are added into the unvaccinated).
When someone calculates rates from estimations, they need to include error bars. They didn't, so Table 13 is garbage.
So yet another thread where the title is a lie and the OP was unable to comprehend the information posted in support of the title.
Sigh.
What that PR statement omitted was that vaccine efficacy goes negative vs Omicron as time passes (i.e. you are more likely to get sick after getting jabbed). And note that it says WITH a booster, protection is increased. But only for 9 weeks, then it falls under the 50% emergency use threshold.
The vaccine does not work. Just stating the obvious.
53% of car accident fatalities in the US were wearing seatbelts.
So, using this threads logic, seat belts don't work and it's obvious.
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