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Tactically speaking, Russia can't match western technology, and Ukraine has plenty of access to the modern tools of war which includes drones, MANPADS, and shoulder fired anti-tank weapons. In some way Russian military doctrine is still stuck in the 80s Soviet thinking of massed armoured column overwhelming the enemy. Look at it this way - Russia military budget is some $60 billion a year, that's not much more than Germany or the UK or France, and nothing compared to the $800 billion a year that the US spends. All these countries are aiding Ukraine with high tech weapons. That's the modern face of war, not soldiers with rifles firing at each other but targeted strikes in small teams, or no teams at all but simply GPS and radar guided weapons, basically machines - high tech weapons are extremely lethal and do not need lots of manpower, in fact with drones you don't have to face the enemy in person at all.
Politically speaking, the Russian's have always done well in the past in prepping it's targets with political and social influences before the actual fighting, the "hybrid" model in warfare - the "little green men" you hear about as well as other influences. That failed in Ukraine, basically they misinterpreted the independent and nationalistic spirit of Ukraine. Essentially the war was lost before it began.
Edit: by "war was lost" that's not to see that Putin has given up, he is simply changing strategies. Russia still has the potential to overwhelm Ukraine, it just takes time and blood, and Russia has always been tolerant to expend both.
Yeah that is an excellent site I look at every few days, tells of all the action occurring on the ground without the chaotic reporting or speculation you see on CNN or Fox. Highly recommended.
Well, first of all, you are watching too much Ukrainian propaganda. As Gen. Hodges, I believe, has said, Ukraine is winning the war on Twitter, not in real life. We are all supporting the brave Ukrainians, but let's not forget the reality.
Unfortunately, Ukraine has no path to victory. Putin cannot afford to lose the war, or he won't survive. He will reduce Ukraine to ruins, if it comes to that. What sucks, in your words, is not the entire military, but the way the war has been planned and executed, with attacks on all fronts without securing proper logistics to support such a spread-out force.
Yes, the Russian military doctrine seems to have been stuck in the WWII, and their military shows the superiority of well-trained American volunteer force over the conscription-based poor Russian model.
What doesn't suck is the Russian weapons. Kalashnikov is the most popular automatic in the world. Whatever else they could steal in the West, they simplified and tried to improve.
What does suck in their training and morale. They are the invaders, after all.
A bit pessimistic for the Ukrainians but I want to bold the part about Ukrainian propaganda. Ukrainians have had significant losses of people and material. Unfortunately you have to shower after visiting the pro Russia propaganda. It can be found pretty easy. Note that Pro Russians lie also.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts
Institute for Study of War (ISW) is a pretty good and objective source to understand what's going on over there.
Things I have not seen mentioned:
Russia is running out of things faster than Ukraine because Ukraine is being resupplied at a feverish pace.
Ill give credit to Ukraine for not Stalingradding themselves trying to rescue the cities in the south and east though the temptation must be massive given the sheer amount of war crimes being committed.
Russia has largely ceased doing deity level stupid things. Note this does not mean good. It just means they are not generally leaving 100KM long exposed flanks.
The truth is noone knows who will win. Feb 24 I was thinking a bit more of the Ukrainians than most. I figured they would last a week or two.
Ukraine has shown surprisingly effective creativity. The sinking of the Moscow...
Russia lost its flagship:
In a land war.
To a country without a navy.
By being tricked by the worlds most expensive and effective head fake...
Well, first of all, you are watching too much Ukrainian propaganda. As Gen. Hodges, I believe, has said, Ukraine is winning the war on Twitter, not in real life. We are all supporting the brave Ukrainians, but let's not forget the reality.
Unfortunately, Ukraine has no path to victory. Putin cannot afford to lose the war, or he won't survive. He will reduce Ukraine to ruins, if it comes to that. What sucks, in your words, is not the entire military, but the way the war has been planned and executed, with attacks on all fronts without securing proper logistics to support such a spread-out force.
Yes, the Russian military doctrine seems to have been stuck in the WWII, and their military shows the superiority of well-trained American volunteer force over the conscription-based poor Russian model.
What doesn't suck is the Russian weapons. Kalashnikov is the most popular automatic in the world. Whatever else they could steal in the West, they simplified and tried to improve.
What does suck in their training and morale. They are the invaders, after all.
Whether Putin can or cannot afford to lose this war, he will. The Ukrainians simply will not give up. They've been clear on that. Putin can bomb eastern Ukraine to rubble, and they still won't surrender.
Apparently, Putin underestimated their determination, or at least didn't plan for it. But then, very little of this invasion appears well-planned.
The Russian's got their assess handed to them in the north, so they retreated east. While causing mayhem aplenty, they are also sitting ducks for the long-range weapons other nations are steadily supplying.
Russia has a HUGE amount of (useless) land, but they are actually a tiny, nearly third world country. They spend disproportionately on defense, and that makes them appear to be a global power (not the least of which is that they are also a nuclear power).
But, in reality, they are not a particularly modern nation, and they certainly don't have a modern military with proper equipment and training.
How putrid (literally, but that is not what i mean) is it when an army leaves behind their dead as if they were just used up military accouterments?
One thing I don't understand watching from videos is having columns of tanks just driving down the highway. Like, doesn't that just SCREAM "I'M AN EASY TARGET! SHOOT ME!!! SHOOT ME!!!:"?
One thing I don't understand watching from videos is having columns of tanks just driving down the highway. Like, doesn't that just SCREAM "I'M AN EASY TARGET! SHOOT ME!!! SHOOT ME!!!:"?
Maybe not full control, but Russia does not have full air superiority either except maybe in the Donbas region. It's contested, and the Russian air force has taken heavy losses from MANPADS and other SAMs.
In terms of anti-tank via air power, Ukraine has other tools - particularly as I mentioned before, drones. Russian anti-air defenses are just not designed to detect these little slow moving birds. Particularly effective is these cheap Turkish drones that the Ukrainians are using.
The formula has changed.
Drones changed the equation and shooting a $1100 drone acting as a spotter is not that big of a loss and not all that easy to spot from an AFV.
Painted Ukrainians sky gray they blend and are small even harder to spot.
Well, first of all, you are watching too much Ukrainian propaganda. As Gen. Hodges, I believe, has said, Ukraine is winning the war on Twitter, not in real life. We are all supporting the brave Ukrainians, but let's not forget the reality.
Unfortunately, Ukraine has no path to victory. Putin cannot afford to lose the war, or he won't survive. He will reduce Ukraine to ruins, if it comes to that. What sucks, in your words, is not the entire military, but the way the war has been planned and executed, with attacks on all fronts without securing proper logistics to support such a spread-out force.
Yes, the Russian military doctrine seems to have been stuck in the WWII, and their military shows the superiority of well-trained American volunteer force over the conscription-based poor Russian model.
What doesn't suck is the Russian weapons. Kalashnikov is the most popular automatic in the world. Whatever else they could steal in the West, they simplified and tried to improve.
What does suck in their training and morale. They are the invaders, after all.
Russian logistics do suck, and they suck mightily, which does depend on training and morale of their equipment maintainers as well as senior logistics planning.
Ultimately, that will probably not result in victory for Ukraine because as you have said, this war is existential for Putin himself, a matter of win or die, and we will see him turn to weapons of mass destruction before he loses.
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