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4, Trump. It seems like many people on all sides live in an echo chamber these days. Trump supporters know that Trump is toxic to those on the left, but they don't realize just how toxic he is to those in the middle. The more that Trump lingers on the side, pushes for a 2024 run, endorses candidates, the more it helps Democrats. Almost all of the girls in my friend group can't stand him.
Some of the very best humans I know are Trump voters, but they just can't see how toxic he is to so many in the middle and what they fail to see what he represents to so many independent voters. It will be the GOP's undoing in November.
5, TV has covered many stories that just make Republicans look poor lately. From January 6, to the Ohio girl that got raped, to Republicans voting against securing Gay Marriage. Issues that Republicans can win on like should racist ideas be taught in schools have taken a back seat in TV coverage.
6, The youth vote will come out strong against Republicans.
7, Inflation is a problem, but most realize that it isn't solely Biden's fault and both parties pushed bigger spending during the pandemic, even if Democrats wanted even bigger spending. This won't help Republicans too much.
8, People want a larger safety net, like perhaps a national healthcare system. Democrats are the path forward on this.
9, As a Pro-Life Democrat, I once had in 2020, a smug not that masculine Democrat man tell me "You are anti-women's rights, that is not a Democrat, cutie." I was angered to the point that I almost didn't vote Dem in my first election. Democrats have seemed to wise up a bit lately, as no Democrat has been so insulting and condescending to me if I say that I am a pro-Life Democrat for pacifist religious beliefs.
10, There have always been a little more Democrats, it is just that Democrats were a little less likely to vote. The new easier voting methods have flipped the tables. They are still in place.
11. Biden is unpopular, Biden is NOT doing a great job, but he is also NOT on the Ballot. Biden does not equal the Democratic Party in its entirety.
Don't be mad, just my thoughts, good people can disagree, what are your thoughts? I think the Democrats do surprise in November.
Don't underestimate the anger of Roe vs Wade being overturned, and how that will reflect on the turnout. Is it a slam dunk for Democrats? Not at all, but I think that decision will influence young people to turn out more than any other factor.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FordBronco1967
I will chock most of this up to you being young and naïve, thought I cannot fault you much for this as I am only one year older than you!
I have followed every election since 2014. I find them quite interesting, and believe me, I wish I did not!
The Republicans still lead in the generic ballot average, at least as of typing this. They have lead in the average since November of 2021, or one year from the upcoming election. That has never happened in modern history. Even in 2010, the Democrats held the lead in the generic ballot average in June of 2010. In 2014, the Democrats held the lead in the generic ballot average in September of 2014. The fact that the Republicans have lead for the last ten months is historic.
I have heard many good things about Tudor Dixon. If nothing else, at least she did not send sick grandmas to die in nursing homes and infect other seniors, and remove tens of millions of dollars of funding for orphans, like Governor Whitmer did... Has Governor Whitmer fixed the roads, like she promised to?
The Republicans hold 214 seats, if there were no vacancies. That is four seats away from a majority. Due to redistricting: AZ-02, FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, TN-05, and WI-03 are guaranteed flips, just to name a few. These seats alone, assuming the Republicans do not lose any, would put the Republicans at 220 seats. I cannot envision a scenario in which the Republicans get less than 230 seats. My guestimate is they end up around 250 seats, which would give the Republicans the largest majority since the 1920's.
I agree. I am hoping for Governor DeSantis, though if President Trump were to get the nomination, he would have my vote, too.
When have the Republicans ever been made to look good, in the media?
Half of the youth do not know there is an election coming up. The other half could not tell you when it is. I chalk that up to being a failure of the public school system, as most educated people would know that elections are held on "the first Tuesday of November".
You and I are exceptions, not the rule.
Presidents always receive the blame when things are terrible. And, President Biden and the Democratic Party wanting to spend more money, which is what got us into this inflation mess in the first place, needs to be exploited better by the Republicans.
I doubt they want to pay the large increase in taxes that would be required to pay for that...
First term midterms are always a referendum on the President. It took 9/11 for 2002 to be the exception to this rule. President Trump is not on the ballot, too. Yet, the Democratic Party is making this election about him and "his candidates", because that is all they have to run on. The Democratic Party's policies will worsen inflation.
Well said.
As for the bolded, that is true. Which makes me wonder if the Dems will shove out another stimulus in Oct, with Biden* once again bribing voters by saying 'Vote Blue and the checks will go out the door immediately'.
Over the past 28 years, every POTUS, Clinton, Bush 2, Obama and Trump, began his term with a majority and then lost it.
Can’t imagine a break in this trend come November.
Not exactly.
Trump did lose 40 seats in the House in 2018, but he GAINED 2 in the Senate going from a 51-seat to 53-seat majority.
But don't expect the democrats to repeat that feat in 2022. It will be a major loss in the House, and could be very close to the 60+ seats Obama lost in 2010. Then enough of a loss in the Senate to give the Republicans control.
75% (3/4) of our budget is social safety net programs... you tell me what other country spend 3.75 trillion out of a 5 trillion budget on safety net programs
and yes by % of GDP we only spend about 18-20% (18% of 20t GDP is 3.6t)...but again a full 75% of our budget goes to social safety net programs
OP is right on some things while I think they are wrong on others. Pubs aren't not running the best candidates (though that is being heavily influenced by Democratic dollars). However, if the Dems do better than expected, it will, as always, largely be due to the activist media complex that props them up. Social media, Hollywood, jounalists, etc....
To me, it's a pretty simple question. Dems are in charge of everything. Do you like how things are going? Do you enjoy the war on energy? The constant race baiting. Those are core tenets of the Democratic Party in 2022.
the Dems just cut their own throats the other day....
Pelosi fly's to Taiwan makes a PUBLIC statement that we support Taiwan and back in the states, the Pentagon, and the WH press secretary stats " we support a one china deal"
so which is it dems...you support Free china- vs- red china (two china)... or you support a one china rule
and btw... if you support a one china, the why are you pushing a two state in Israel
Just my PREDICTION...I think the Democrats do surprise in November.
Nah. I won't be surprised if they cheat again. I'm expecting it, just like I said they would do in 2020, months before the election.
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