Outside of his MAGA base Trump is despised. He has perhaps 44/45% of the vote nationally, but little chance to expand beyond that. In 2020, white non-college made up 58% of Trump’s vote, but only 27% of Biden’s. White non-college is the oldest demographic bloc in America and has been losing on average 3% of its share of eligible voters each 4 year POTUS cycle for decades. When Trump squeaked by in 2016 to win the Electoral College while losing by 2 million in the popular vote, white non-college accounted for 45% of all voters nationally. When he lost in 2020 by 7 million votes nationally the white non-college share had fallen to 41%. That base that currently produces the majority of R votes will continue to decrease as more voters in that group die than reach voting age.
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/03/90743...nue-to-decline
https://centerforpolitics.org/crysta...an-electorate/
Looking specifically at the swing states, here’s the change that occurred in the demographic that is Trump’s base (white non-Hispanic non-college graduate) and the groups that were Biden’s base (whites with a 4 year college degree or more plus all minority groups). You will notice that collectively between 2016 and 2020, white non-college dropped by
5 million while the more D groups rose by
18 million.
Quote:
The number of voting-age white Americans without college degrees has dropped by more than five million in the past four years, while the number of minority voters and college-educated white voters has collectively increased by more than 13 million in the same period. In key swing states, the changes far outstrip Mr. Trump’s narrow 2016 margins.
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ARIZONA: Trump margin in 2016 = 91,234
Since 2016, white non-college = +45,000
Since 2016, white college + minority = +498,000
2020 Results = Biden + 10,457
Swing since 2016 = D + 101,691
FLORIDA: Trump margin in 2016= 112,911
Since 2016, white non-college = -359,000
Since 2016, white college grad + minority = +1,579,000
2020 Results = Trump + 371,686
Swing since 2016 = R +258,775
GEORGIA: Trump margin in 2016 = 211,141
Since 2016, white non-college = -81,000
Since 2016, white college grad + minority = +542,000
2020 Results = +D 11,779
Swing since 2016= +D 222,920
MICHIGAN: Trump margin in 2016 = 10,704
Since 2016, white non-college = -248,000
Since 2016, white college grad + minority = +381,000
2020 results = +D 154,181
Swing since 2016= +D 164,885
NORTH CAROLINA: Trump margin in 2016= 173,315
Since 2016, white non-college = -73,000
Since 2016, white college grad + minority = +524,000
2020 results = R + 74,483
Swing since 2016 = +D 98,892
PENNSYLVANIA: 2016 Trump margin = 44,292
Since 2016, white non-college = -431,000
white college grad + minorities = +449,00
2020 results = +D 82,166
Swing since 2016 = +D 126,458
WISCONSIN: 2016 Trump margin = 22,748
White non- college = -48,000
White college grad+ minorities \= +140,000
2020 results = + D 20,682
Swing since 2016 = +D 43,440
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ographics.html
Trump is a candidate that won the nomination of the Republican Party by doubling down on the R base which is predominantly white non-college. IMO, He is not a candidate that is likely to expand his support significantly among the demographic blocs that will continue to grow.