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Previous months numbers are always adjusted and reported. You just have to read them. The government does not give any rationale for the adjustments. I guess they estimate them and then readjust when the actual numbers are counted.
The BLS employment numbers are based on two surveys -- one of about 60,000 households and another of about 400,000 worksites. These are done every month during either the week or the pay period in which the 12th day of the month falls. The data are the data. Those for the prior month do not change as the result of the next. What does change from month to month is the calculation of seasonal adjustment factors. Employment data have signficant seasonality in them, just as the end of school in June and the hiring of temps for the Xmas season would suggest. The new month's seasonality factors are applied to household data for the current month only. For the establishment data (the number that's typically reported by MSM), the new factors are applied to the three most recent months. Once a year, revised factors are applied to the entire preceding year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan
The BLS numbers don't lie but the adjustments have been changing so the resultant number is not always reality.
How would anyone know what reality actually is? The BLS numbers are by far the best and most comprehensive data and analysis that are available. What I'm hearing is people looking at a perfectly good thermometer and seeing that it's 28 degrees outside, and then saying Boy, it sure feels colder than that! Only some, however, will follow that up with Stupid thermometer!
I would like to see figures on how many many hours of work are performed per household.
Say, in a neighborhood of two houses:
A has a man with a full-time job, and a part time job, and his wife works full time.
B has a man and wife, both unemployed, both looking for work.
Average hours of work, per household, is 50 hours. Average number of jobs per household is 1.5. Unemployment rate for the neighborhood is 50%. Which statistic shall shall we use to evaluate the health of the neighborhood's economy?
in 93 we found that high unemployment rates were good for many people (not the jobless, the others, you know the marie antoinette crowd).
10% misery makes life good for the other 90%. obama 08.
The BLS employment numbers are based on two surveys -- one of about 60,000 households and another of about 400,000 worksites. These are done every month during either the week or the pay period in which the 12th day of the month falls. The data are the data. Those for the prior month do not change as the result of the next. What does change from month to month is the calculation of seasonal adjustment factors. Employment data have signficant seasonality in them, just as the end of school in June and the hiring of temps for the Xmas season would suggest. The new month's seasonality factors are applied to household data for the current month only. For the establishment data (the number that's typically reported by MSM), the new factors are applied to the three most recent months. Once a year, revised factors are applied to the entire preceding year.
How would anyone know what reality actually is? The BLS numbers are by far the best and most comprehensive data and analysis that are available. What I'm hearing is people looking at a perfectly good thermometer and seeing that it's 28 degrees outside, and then saying Boy, it sure feels colder than that! Only some, however, will follow that up with Stupid thermometer!
Say, in a neighborhood of two houses:
A has a man with a full-time job, and a part time job, and his wife works full time.
B has a man and wife, both unemployed, both looking for work.
Average hours of work, per household, is 50 hours. Average number of jobs per household is 1.5. Unemployment rate for the neighborhood is 50%. Which statistic shall shall we use to evaluate the health of the neighborhood's economy?
There are outliers in (almost) any data set. If they are numerous or exaggerated in their effect, you can develop rules to exclude them. For the most part, they are swamped by the trends occurring in the non-outlier data. As long as you have a large enough sample size (two households isn't large enough), you should end up with results that are statistically significant...
So long as it's understood that what you are disagreeing with are the simple facts of the matter...
They are not so simple. The numbers have been massaged by "adjustments" over time. I don't believe they are true numbers.
I think this is what we are disagreeing on.
The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly shot up to 6.1 percent in August, the highest in nearly five years, as employers cut payrolls for an eighth straight month and a decline in labor markets accelerated.
84000 jobs were lost in August!!!!!
I WANT CHANGE NOW NOT IN 4 YEARS
VOTE FOR CHANGE!
OBAMA 08
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Are you telling me that chanting "USA USA" like they did at GOP convention won't fix the problems we have?
Neither candidate has addressed the economic problems or their platform to get the US out of debt.
Your right .
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