Career Builder's poll: 8 of 10 employers plan to hire next year

[LordBalfor]

Originally Posted by crypton

Ken, I have no doubt about your intelligence in the area; you also have a good grasp on how to communicate your stance - I hope that you are right. But my concern is that "next year" will be too late for many people. They will have gone into a hole that many will never be able to dig themselves out. I have several friends that are about to lose everything they own. Their credit is ruined, they have no income to speak of, and have looked at jobs from cleaning houses to those in their professions. This economy is the worst I've seen in my life. My own wages are 50% of what they have been for the last ten years and where I work they are talking about laying off more people. They've already cut back on our hours severely. What's next?

Crypton - I'm not belittling the severity of the recession. It's the worst I've seen in my life too (and I'm an old fart) - in fact it's the worst (by far) since the Great Depression. So yeah I DO feel for the folks laid off (my best friend was laid off) and/or losing their homes - like I said, I NEVER claimed the economy was good right now, in fact I've said MANY TIMES that the economy is going to be horrendous this year.

However, the fact is the economy IS starting to recover and has been for several months now. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) that economists use as their primary tool to determine future economic health has been pointing mostly postitive for several months now and is moving more so every month. Jobs however will be the LAST thing to recover - as is the case in every economic downturn - and this is the reason that I strongly back the stimulus and other measures put in place to help speed the recovery.

This year IS horrid, but next year will be better (not "good" yet) but far better than this has been - and those folks that deny that are simply either too ground down or simply CHOOSING to ignore what the vast majority of economists are saying. Often I suspect these "defeatist" types are actively HOPING the collapse will get worse so that their particular political favorites can exploit the countries' misery.

The fact is, your friends just need to hang in there and do what they can until the recovery arrives for them - but it WILL arrive. I know that is easier said than done, but the fact is, what alternative have they got?

The Conference Board Leading Economic Indexâ„¢ (LEI) for the U.S. Improves Again

Ken

[jimhcom]

Originally Posted by ParkTwain

Wrong, the absolute size of the National Debt was reduced because the Treasury bought back and retired some of that debt using the fiscal surplus that took place for several years running under Clinton.

Looking at the charts you are right, they do show a dip, but the figures of gross debt do not. Just goes to show you can find statistics to show almost anything you want. The point is at that time we had the .com bubble making millionaires out of taxi drivers. We sure do not have anything like that on the horizon, so our only real hope of getting this economy turned around is to begin to invest in our infrastructure and industries. Idiotic government give away programs do nothing to build what we need to be successful going forward. They are the same type of bread and circus politics that caused the fall of Rome. Look at the projected debts below and calculate what the debt service is going to be going forward. Then ask yourself where is that money going to come from, not to pay it off, just to make the interest payments?

Year Gross Debt in Billions [10] as % of GDP
1910 2.6 n/a
1920 25.9 n/a
1930 16.2 n/a
1940 43.0 52.4
1950 257.4 94.1
1960 290.5 56.1
1970 380.9 37.6
1980 909.0 33.3
1990 3,206.3 55.9
2000 5,628.7 58.0
2001 5,769.9 57.4
2002 6,198.4 59.7
2003 6,760.0 62.5
2004 7,354.7 64.0
2005 7,905.3 64.6
2006 8,451.4 64.9
2007 8,950.7 65.5
2008 9,985.8 70.2
2009 (est.) 12,867.5 90.4
2010 (est.) 14,456.3 98.1
2011 (est.) 15,673.9 101.1
2012 (est.) 16,565.7 100.6
2013 (est.) 17,440.2 99.7
2014 (est.) 18,350.0 99.9

As of 2007, the debt of the United States ranked as the 22nd-largest in the world as a percentage of GDP.[11]