Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil surged to the highest level in 17 months as growth in American jobs and service industries signaled that the economy is recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s.
China's import of crude oil has been surging..up 58% in March.
Oil has been creeping up..not on "signals" but on actual increased imports.
Kudlow: Conservatives, the Economic Comeback is Real News Headlines
Sooner or later, even the conservatives will have to admit that the recovery is real.
Yup. This line is oh so true: "Sometimes you have to take your political lenses out and look at the actual economic statistics in order to gauge whether we’re on the road to recovery or not."
And keep in mind that statement is coming from an Obamabashing Conservative. The fact is the economy is heading for a STRONG RECOVERY - FAR stronger than nearly anyone expects (despite the downplay of expectations from the Administration). Even Kudlow admits it - for the simple reason that THAT'S WHAT THE DATA SHOWS.
I don't care if a poster is Left, Right or Center. If REFUSE to look at the DATA because it flies in the face of the political leanings/agenda then that poster is an idiot - and will most certainly look like it once the evidence becomes undeniable.
And it WILL become undeniable.
LOL
So, will YOU say "YOU told me so" - when your doom and gloom scenario DOESN'T happen?
No, you will be free to do likewise. Please bookmark this.
Quote:
So come on, pick a date.
When does your "doom and gloom" scenario unfold. When IS that "in a few short months" - July? August? September? When?
I'm waiting to mark it on my calendar.
Ken
I can pick out a timeline of approximately when things like happen. I'm no Peter Schiff after all.
I next 1-2 years, we'll start seeing the effects of the stimulus in high inflation, likely in the area of 8-10%. House prices will continue to decline to some degree but consumer good prices will rise substantially. Food inflation might hit 20-25%, same with energy. Banks will fail at an accelerated rate (small ones, not ones bailed out). Income tax rates will rise across the spectrum. 10-year notes will be between 6-8% minimum, but probably closer to 10%.
Within 5 years, the IRS will be overwhelmed with non-payers of taxes. It won't be able to incarcerate or fine the massive number of tax protestors and will likely triage the cases. We'll be at war with Iran, and oil will be about $120-150/barrel. Triple digit inflation easily.
Except that Obama doesn't agree with Cheney. His deficit spending was done reluctantly out of necessity where as the Bush deficits were superfluous.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
The difference is Obama is well aware that deficits matter - it's just that he's also aware that SOMETIMES you HAVE to deficit spend. Once the economy is stable again THEN we can look at trimming the deficit. Right NOW more of the increase in the deficit is being caused by a reduction in tax revenues than the increase in government spending - so we need to stimulate the economy so that tax revenues pick up.
Fortunately, from the look of things it most certainly looks like the economy IS turning around. It's not quite healthy yet, but it's moving in that direction.
Ken
It dosesn't matter what his "intentions" were for doing it. It is the reality that counts. And, if you think politicians will ever cut spending in the future to balance the budget...I've got a bridge you need to take a look at...
Quote:
The Obama budget will add $10 trillion to the national debt in the next decade and will not stabilize the deficit, the CBO found. Deficits are expected to dip as the recovery takes hold, but never below $724 billion a year. Interest costs alone will consume $5.6 trillion this decade. A balanced budget has been widely ruled out as unattainable.
No, you will be free to do likewise. Please bookmark this.
I can pick out a timeline of approximately when things like happen. I'm no Peter Schiff after all.
I next 1-2 years, we'll start seeing the effects of the stimulus in high inflation, likely in the area of 8-10%. House prices will continue to decline to some degree but consumer good prices will rise substantially. Food inflation might hit 20-25%, same with energy. Banks will fail at an accelerated rate (small ones, not ones bailed out). Income tax rates will rise across the spectrum. 10-year notes will be between 6-8% minimum, but probably closer to 10%.
Within 5 years, the IRS will be overwhelmed with non-payers of taxes. It won't be able to incarcerate or fine the massive number of tax protestors and will likely triage the cases. We'll be at war with Iran, and oil will be about $120-150/barrel. Triple digit inflation easily.
Give me your predictions, please.
You are way low on your oil barrel price predicitons. We'll reach $100/barrel before July.
You are way low on your oil barrel price predicitons. We'll reach $100/barrel before July.
I want to be conservative on my predictions . Plus, it won't go up in a straight line. Oil could just as easily be $10,000/barrel 5 years later depending on inflation.
No, you will be free to do likewise. Please bookmark this.
I can pick out a timeline of approximately when things like happen. I'm no Peter Schiff after all.
I next 1-2 years, we'll start seeing the effects of the stimulus in high inflation, likely in the area of 8-10%. House prices will continue to decline to some degree but consumer good prices will rise substantially. Food inflation might hit 20-25%, same with energy. Banks will fail at an accelerated rate (small ones, not ones bailed out). Income tax rates will rise across the spectrum. 10-year notes will be between 6-8% minimum, but probably closer to 10%.
Within 5 years, the IRS will be overwhelmed with non-payers of taxes. It won't be able to incarcerate or fine the massive number of tax protestors and will likely triage the cases. We'll be at war with Iran, and oil will be about $120-150/barrel. Triple digit inflation easily.
Give me your predictions, please.
My predictions?
The economy will continue to recover - in fact the recovery will pick up steam and by the end of the year the U-3 unemployment rate will be below 9%. By the end of 2011 it will be below 7% - maybe as low as 6.5% and by 2012 it will be below 6% and in the "normal" range.
There will be some mild inflation as the economy recovers, but it will be quickly tamed by the Fed raising interest rates slow enough so as to not take pull the rug out from under the recovery.
Home prices will rise this year in most locations across the country. The rise will be modest, but it WILL be a rise - and the backlog of unsold home will be slowly eaten up over the next year and a half.
All in all, things will look pretty well 2 years from now - as they will 3 years from now.
What's your point - that high unemployment results in high personal bankruptcy rates?
I think that's kind'a obvious don't you?
Aside from that - what's your point?
Ken
You don't get the point? Adding a probable 3 million more foreclosures this year as well.
Is that the formula in your opinion for a recovery. Simply question, why be a smart a$$.
LOL
So, will YOU say "YOU told me so" - when your doom and gloom scenario DOESN'T happen?
Because the fact is - your scenario WON'T happen.
So come on, pick a date.
When does your "doom and gloom" scenario unfold? When IS that "in a few short months" - July? August? September? When?
I'm waiting to mark it on my calendar.
Ken
Interested to see all your economic recovery predictions by month, as you requested from a previous post.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
