Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Why don't you explain to us why there is a birth/death model to begin with, how it is calculated, and then what actual effect it has on the final unemployment number?
The berth death model is there to say we are having this meany jobs lost because businesses closed new ones opening replace the lost ones. It lets you play a lot of Voodoo with the numbers that you release.
Maybe this is beating a dead horse, but the unemployment numbers have NOTHING TO DO with anybody's receiving or not receiving unemployment insurance. Those are two completely different datasets, and there is no statistical connection between them at all.
So they don't use the number of people getting unemployment as part of their numbers? If people getting unemployment don't count where do they get their numbers from?
I doubt that you realize just how weak that is. But maybe you can tell us who it was "fudged the numbers" for all those private sector analysts whose consensus projections were showing at the time that unemployment would peak in 2009 at around 8.2%? And that would be without a stimulus.
Really? That is certainly NOT what the CBO estimated. Here's that report, the very same one you always ignore. You know, the one that said the recession would end late 2009/early 2010 WITHOUT government intervention (the Failed Stimulus).
Table 1-1 is a whopper, not unlike all estimates/numbers from obama.
Quote:
Face the simple facts. In January, Republicans were claiming that Obama (and his "uniquely qualified team", I think the propagandists' saying goes) had OVER-estimated the severity of the recession. In April, the same people were claiming that he had UNDER-estimated the severity of the recession. Two trains on the same track headed in opposite directions.
No, he had hyped up the "crisis" in order to take "opportunities". He used "rosy scenario" numbers in his budget and stimulus projections.
Quote:
The actual case is that the Obama projections of the time were in line with everyone else's, and that -- as has so clearly now been proven to be the case -- unemployment would peak earlier and at a lower level with a stimulus bill than without. You right-wingers are really left with nothing much to say at this point. And it's only going to get worse for you now, as the months tick by...
So basically, we have done worse WITH the Failed Stimulus than we would have done WITHOUT it.
That chart of obama's will come in real handy in the fall.
Really? That is certainly NOT what the CBO estimated. Here's that report, the very same one you always ignore. You know, the one that said the recession would end late 2009/early 2010 WITHOUT government intervention (the Failed Stimulus).
Table 1-1 is a whopper, not unlike all estimates/numbers from obama.
No, he had hyped up the "crisis" in order to take "opportunities". He used "rosy scenario" numbers in his budget and stimulus projections.
So basically, we have done worse WITH the Failed Stimulus than we would have done WITHOUT it.
That chart of obama's will come in real handy in the fall.
WRONG. The chart was from before all the bad economic news during the last couple months was known. No one estimated the massive job losses, the massive GDP drop, and the horrific 4th quarter earnings report, all of that info came out after the chart.
WRONG. The chart was from before all the bad economic news during the last couple months was known. No one estimated the massive job losses, the massive GDP drop, and the horrific 4th quarter earnings report, all of that info came out after the chart.
WRONG.
Why do you think obama was claiming another great depression? Can't have it both ways.
Why do you think obama was claiming another great depression? Can't have it both ways.
When Obama made the claim about the depression the 4th quarter numbers the 700k monthly job loss numbers were known. However they were not known when the chart was made.
When Obama made the claim about the depression the 4th quarter numbers the 700k monthly job loss numbers were known. However they were not known when the chart was made.
Of course they were.
What a ridiculous claim.
You've already backpedaled on the above, might as well go all the way.
I love these threads. Some news comes up that the economy is slowly moving in the right direction, and the same grumpy Republican heads around here always pooh pooh it and look on the dark side with "oh, things are horrible", "it's all getting worse", "we have so much farther to go, things are not great", blah blah...
...because we all know that these people are terrified of the prospect of anything getting better while Obama is in office. They're actively hoping and praying that more Americans lose jobs so that they can rack up more cheap "blame points" against Obama. If they get 200k points they can trade it in for a free toaster oven from the NRA.
Direct from the Obama report.. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan.
Yep, looks like they projected unemployment figures in their report.. Sag, why do you lie so much?
I love these threads. Some news comes up that the economy is slowly moving in the right direction, and the same grumpy Republican heads around here always pooh pooh it and look on the dark side with "oh, things are horrible", "it's all getting worse", "we have so much farther to go, things are not great", blah blah...
...because we all know that these people are terrified of the prospect of anything getting better while Obama is in office. They're actively hoping and praying that more Americans lose jobs so that they can rack up more cheap "blame points" against Obama. If they get 200k points they can trade it in for a free toaster oven from the NRA.
Yeah, and you want to have a good laugh?
Go back and look at what some of these SAME people (Sanrene for example) were saying back in mid/late 2008. Sanrene was totally convinced the housing collapse was no big deal - only affecting a small percentage of homeowners - and that we were not in recession - just a normal temporary slowdown. This post for example was from Aug 7th, 2008 (just a month or so before the big financial collapse of Sept 2008) as she claimed (once again) that the economy was in fine shape and that there was no recession (this was 8 months after the "official" date of the beginning of the current recession (Dec 2007)) and a week after Bush had signed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, which authorized the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee up to $300 billion in new 30-year fixed rate mortgages for subprime borrowers if lenders write-down principal loan balances to 90 percent of current appraisal value. She was SO RIGHT then wasn't she? There was no major housing crises and the economy was doing JUST FINE
A month or so later there was total choas as Lehman Brothers collapsed - nearly taking the entire banking system (and the whole economy) with it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene
Oh good lord. Is this how you wake up every day? I fear you are in way too deep to be rescued if you believe this garbage the obama campaign is feeding you.
So you are one of those that thinks "W" is too blame for any little bit of bad news? You do realize that an economy of our size has it's up and downs, ebbs and flows? So the housing market has totally collapsed across the country? EVERYONE is losing their homes to foreclosure? Must I remind you that for the last 15 years or so the housing market has seen tremendous appreciattion gains across the board? Now that it has eased back some (a very good,natural thing)you are wailing and whining and crying to the heavens that the whole market is dead. Do you realize how utterly hysterical you sound?
Thousands of jobs?? When we have virtually full employment. Your histriontics make it seem like the depression.
People die in wars - did you realize that? Lucky that you probably weren't around in WWII when THOUSANDS died daily on the beaches of Normandy.
Killed the constitution? How? What rights that you once had have disappeared?
Last edited by LordBalfor; 05-07-2010 at 07:26 PM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
They're actively hoping and praying that more Americans lose jobs so that they can rack up more cheap "blame points" against Obama. 
If they get 200k points they can trade it in for a free toaster oven from the NRA.
