When do y'all think houses will get cheap out there? (Portland: for sale, real estate)

[meltinjohn]

I say its possible down the road, but it might be down the road some. I mean when it gets real low. Its hard to predict WHEN houses all over the country will drop dramatically, but does anyone see hope for good change there?
I been hearing the unemployment rate is 24% altho maybe thats for the state of Oregon I dunno.
Thats concerning news if thats true tho.

[emh]

Originally Posted by meltinjohn

I say its possible down the road, but it might be down the road some. I mean when it gets real low. Its hard to predict WHEN houses all over the country will drop dramatically, but does anyone see hope for good change there?
I been hearing the unemployment rate is 24% altho maybe thats for the state of Oregon I dunno.
Thats concerning news if thats true tho.

The 24% includes those that have stopped looking for work as well as the underemployed (people with part-time jobs that would prefer full-time).

There were several articles in last Sunday's Oregonian about the state of the housing market in Portland. Various experts gave predictions for future decline. The average was about 10%. The article also noted that starter homes are selling decently (likely because of the first-time home buyers credit) whereas higher-end homes aren't selling at all.

[philwithbeard]

I don't understand your question.

Around the country, from what I know, the drop has already occurred. Prices for homes are about as low as they are going to get. I don't know the Portland home prices, but there may be a good market for homes to be converted in to rental property, which will give some support to the housing prices.

Not so in Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and most other mid-west towns. Prices drop, and no buyers at all. A few get sold for rental properties, but the foreclosure market is flooded. That is what drops the prices of housing...supply and demand. Where are you seeing a large bump in foreclosure sales in Portland in the near future? Renter kick-outs, yes, but not as much owner's foreclosure.

You may have missed the boat for low purchase price for real estate.

Phil

[Riley2c]

When the sun shines as much as does in Southern California! It used to be, that you could purchase a nice starter home in the outer suburbs- Milwaukie etc for $125k- $150k. Those homes are now starting @ no less than $200k.

I'd love to purchase my first home. However, moving out of state would be a better bet.

[h8n]

Portland sits between Seattle & Cali.... both of which have property valued > twice that of Portland. As long as people are selling their place in Cali / Seattle & paying cash in Portland, the property values won't go down so much in Portland.... just my thought.

[ukiyo-e]

Originally Posted by h8n

Portland sits between Seattle & Cali.... both of which have property valued > twice that of Portland. As long as people are selling their place in Cali / Seattle & paying cash in Portland, the property values won't go down so much in Portland.... just my thought.

Housing prices in many parts of California have tanked, so Portland is looking pretty expensive in comparison, especially considering that the prices there were among the last to start trending down. There are MANY nice, large homes in the Sacramento area priced under $250K now. The Bay Area is a different story - the median prices in most areas there are still in the 600Ks. So it depends greatly upon where in California you're talking about. And witness Bend, whose housing market has completely collapsed, with years of inventory on the market, now that Californians can't cash out and overpay for homes there anymore.

Besides, there has to be a job to move to Portland for, and those are very scarce. I don't see that changing in the immediate future, so the demand for homes there will be weaker, not stronger, for awhile. I'm looking at some homes there next week and some of the ones I've seen online have been for sale for many months with one or more price reductions - same as everywhere else. In fact, Zillow claims one of the homes I'm looking at is valued at $525K based on previous sales in the area...it's listed at $399K now.

[gatorman]

Values going down in Portland?

That depends, like everywhere it's all about supply and demand. You won't find the same real estate scenario in a cool close-in Portland neighborhood compared to what you'd find in Happy Valley or Vancouver.

The urban growth boundary has limited supply in Portland and forced emphasis on revitalization of urban core / close-in neighborhoods. In pdx proper, housing is selling fast, as there is still plenty of demand. In cases with classic pdx homes/ bungalows / craftsmans with original floors, claw tub, vintage fixtures and huge lots, the houses are selling well and prices remain high.

[h8n]

the wonderful lefties who made Portland such a beautiful place kinda shot themselves in the foot in 2 ways:
1) the urban sprawl boundries for building (which I support 100%) drove up property values causing noone except the well off to be able to afford a home.
2) the liberals taxing the soul out of anyone who works hard chases off business. Thus, the job market in Oregon is one of the worst in the nation. I would give anything to move back to Oregon for its beauty but due to the liberals being so NON-Friendly towards business, the jobs just don't exist like they do in Washington.

[ukiyo-e]

Originally Posted by gatorman

Values going down in Portland?

The urban growth boundary has limited supply in Portland and forced emphasis on revitalization of urban core / close-in neighborhoods. In pdx proper, housing is selling fast, as there is still plenty of demand. In cases with classic pdx homes/ bungalows / craftsmans with original floors, claw tub, vintage fixtures and huge lots, the houses are selling well and prices remain high.

I think that's wishful thinking. This article shows the Case Schiller index for Portland and prices are down almost 20% since the market peak - and it shows the median price hasn't been this low since 2005. The third graph on this page shows the median price over the past 12 months and the graph goes down at a very steep angle. Yes, that means values have gone down, believe it or not.

Portland Housing Blog: Case-Shiller Index unchanged from last month

This pretty much matches what I've seen looking at homes online the last two years. Even craftsman homes in close in neighborhoods are sitting on the market for months if they're priced at last year's prices - I've been looking at home online for 2 years and I can almost recite the addresses by heart after seeing them so many times.

[gatorman]

The Case Schiller index for Portland includes 7 counties (Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clark (WA), and Skamania (WA).) !!

Thrown in this index you've got everything from pig farms to strip malls and cookie cutters to craftsmans.