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This has been posted several times. It flies in the face of 26+% sales drop year over year.
We'll have first row seats to the show, watching one by one every metropolitan area drop in price before we're finally called on stage.
Frudy that is to funny, you crack me up and it ain't a pretty site! lol
The article reminds me of the fable of the rabbit (other US housing markets) and the tortoise (NC less the Coastal areas). As the rabbit went flying forward these past couple of years the tortoise keep her pace, steady, forward, and determined. Then the carrots (Alt/sub prime/interest free/no down payment/variable) were taken away and the rabbit had an energy crisis and started to stumble and stagger and even fall a few places. But the tortoise, she keeps on pace, slowing down a bit to find some water (NC drought) but steady. Yea, sure reminds me of the fable we all know so well! We'll be OK for some time if we follow the tortoise approach!
P.S. as long as we stay off Oranges, Lemons, and casino chips we will be fine!
I think, it really remains to be seen whether we're going to watch the storm fly towards us or whether we'll find refuge. When you talk about the 26% sales drop year over year, you are really talking about Wake County. Orange County saw only a 12% drop and considering the national news in August, I'd understand why most buyers were skittish to buy.
I know that one of your big sticking points is that because people won't be able to sell elsewhere, they won't be able to come here to buy. I think partially that is true and will serve to reduce some of the buyers. The half-backs, and many mid-life professionals will have those issues.
However, there are two groups which will still hold strong and these two groups will make a serious dent in the new marketplace:
1. Retiring baby boomers who bought long ago. Even though their equity is reduced because of the burst bubble, they don't need to make a certain amount in order to pick up and move on. Therefore, they'll be more able to price their homes lower than the pack, cut their losses and move.
2. Renters who want to settle down (aka sons and daughters of baby boomers). They have no financial/housing tie to their area, are able to move at a whim and are looking for a good and affordable place to raise a family. This area fits them to a T and they would rather invest in an area that is a "tortoise" than leverage themselves to the max in the risky markets that are falling all around them. Unlike many metropolitan areas that are now in trouble, housing prices around here are in line with incomes for the most part. The real estate markets that are holding strong also have a good debt to income ratio overall.
As for me, I think prices will stagnate over the next 2-3 years but we'll bounce back. The loss in appreciation over those years will probably add up to the 20% number you like to quote. In the meantime, though, I'll be enjoying my new house which is more than half the price of any similar home San Diego, happy that I locked in a 30 yr. fixed rate at 5.5%, and thrilled that I found an awesome place to raise my son in an area that boasts great weather, terrific jobs and grandparents nearby. Not to mention, lovely people who post in local forums.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frudy McRomson
This has been posted several times. It flies in the face of 26+% sales drop year over year.
We'll have first row seats to the show, watching one by one every metropolitan area drop in price before we're finally called on stage.
All I know is that I have been trying to sell my home for three months. We have had FOUR showings!!
My home is prices very competitively. It is only 1.5 years old and we have added quite a bit(extensive landscaping - professionally done, Plantation shutters, a wet bar in the basement).
If we sell it for its current listing price, we are losing money. I just do not see where this is still a good housing market.
Many of the areas that are still going strong are located right here in Carolina. Wilmington, Charlotte, Asheville, and Raleigh.
The thing is - this is STILL using June data (i.e. long before the "bottom fell out" nationally). I can't understand why they think this is stilll representative in any way of what's going on now.
There's a really nasty habit (in various media outlets) of trotting out old data after new data has been presented, without any mention that this is in fact much OLDER data....
The thing is - this is STILL using June data (i.e. long before the "bottom fell out" nationally). I can't understand why they think this is stilll representative in any way of what's going on now.
There's a really nasty habit (in various media outlets) of trotting out old data after new data has been presented, without any mention that this is in fact much OLDER data....
I read this the other day and also noticed they are using second quarter numbers. They mention Portland as being a hot market and I know the time it takes to sell a house here has doubled in the third quarter. Also, the median price of houses has dropped.
All I know is that I have been trying to sell my home for three months. We have had FOUR showings!!
My home is prices very competitively. It is only 1.5 years old and we have added quite a bit(extensive landscaping - professionally done, Plantation shutters, a wet bar in the basement).
If we sell it for its current listing price, we are losing money. I just do not see where this is still a good housing market.
There is a national crisis in housing/mortgages and, regardlesss of whether or not that crisis affects us as much as it affect others, many people will take a pause because they are freaked out about what's going on.....this is sort of like the dot com bust where good companies were punished in the marketplace. But, unlike stocks, people actually live in houses and need a roof over their heads. Homes aren't as easily dumped as stocks. Now, all this freaking out is currently affecting our short term sales activity but it's nothing compared to areas like Miami where tens of thousands of condos (that are priced way out of reach for probably 95%+ of the population) are coming on line without buyers.
So, for those of you waiting for prices in the Triangle to drop like they are in Miami or Detroit, I wouldn't hold your breath. This time now might prove the best opportunity to get a deal if a seller/builder is motivated. When the national market recovers and all the people who have moved to the Triangle over the last year or so finally sell their previous houses, the competition for good properties is going to get heated. So, if you are looking to buy and hold in the area, this next year just might be your best opportunity. Fundamentals still drive the long term success and growth of markets and the Triangle is about as fundamentally stable as it gets.
All I know is that I have been trying to sell my home for three months. We have had FOUR showings!!
My home is prices very competitively. It is only 1.5 years old and we have added quite a bit(extensive landscaping - professionally done, Plantation shutters, a wet bar in the basement).
If we sell it for its current listing price, we are losing money. I just do not see where this is still a good housing market.
You almost never make money if you re-sell a home in such a short time. When I bought my first property in Raleigh, my agent told me to be prepared to hold it 5+ years. She was right. I held it for 7 years and used that equity to move up. You obviously purchased just as the national downturn was occuring. That's very unfortunate for you and I am sorry that you got caught in the crosshairs. If I were you, I'd try to figure out a way to hold the property until that national markets settles.
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